The Derby figure

[Port Conway Lane]

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

Danza was gaining ground late on the winner and appears to be the biggest threat to win the Preakness.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

Danza was gaining ground late on the winner and appears to be the biggest threat to win the Preakness.

Watch but do not touch for me.

[Kasept]

Beyer at noon on ATR..

[Gaelic Storm]

Great Analysis. There are 6 or 7 horses that had trips where someone said they would have been 2nd or 3rd with a better trip, but with how the race played out I keep thinking there are no trips in slow race. Should trips be downgraded out of the derby?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Gaelic Storm

Great Analysis. There are 6 or 7 horses that had trips where someone said they would have been 2nd or 3rd with a better trip, but with how the race played out I keep thinking there are no trips in slow race. Should trips be downgraded out of the derby?

as you said and I believe this here are no trips in slow races. I suppose pace trips maybe but in this race the pace was average.

[Thunder Gulch]

I don't make my own and have an enormous respect for those who do. That said, I have always disliked adding subjectivity to adjust figures up or down in an attempt to boil everything down to a figure. To me that is what the "art" of handicapping is all about. Give me the data- pace fractions, good variants, and let me draw my own conclusions about who ran the best race, and more importantly, who projects to run the best race on the day I am handicapping.

[bare it all]

Thanks for having Andy on to discuss the figure. Regardless of what the masses think, he's not just making crap up.

[Mack]

The problem is that this has turned into a food fight with everyone talking past each other. I think there's valid considerations on either side.

Regardless of the fig, the clock says the race was slow and that’s black and white and now etched in the history books.

The question in front of me is how am I going to use the fig, the clock, and all that other information from the day going forward. I’m of the mind that the wind is playing a much bigger role than is being allowed for in the figs. I think the pace actually was strong into that stiff breeze and stronger than the clock indicated.

If it was such a soft pace, why didn’t the speed stick better? If you look at the chart without the fractions, it looks like partial, if not total, pace collapse. So I’m giving most credit to Chrome and Samraat in my hindsight handicapping. Maybe I’m wrong, but I won’t know until I get more races from these guys.

Specifically to Beyer’s point in his article about Chrome’s move at the top of the stretch being an illusion, go watch the blimp view of the race from the long video on DRF. Skip to the 9:00 mark and tell me if that turn of foot is illusory.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.

[Calzone Lord]

Start reading with Post #10: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22616

This was almost as entertaining as the Street Sense and Orb stuff after the Derby.

[10 pnt move up]

I dont see nearly the type of hype with CC that there was with the horse you have used, if anything there seems to be a backlash you dont see with horses with his form and ease of wins at this point in the trail.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I dont see nearly the type of hype with CC that there was with the horse you have used, if anything there seems to be a backlash you dont see with horses with his form and ease of wins at this point in the trail.

He's not being hyped like Orb, Fu Peg, Street Sense, or Big Brown after the Preakness? I'd probably agree with that.

Still...even though most figs had him as the fastest horse coming into the race... TVG analysts, industry people, and European are now using him as a platform to trash American style speed figures.

The European Racing experts are seriously like arguing with Walter Vosburgh. I LOVE Walter Vosburgh, but he's been dead for almost a century.

The "form based ratings, that take sectional times and final times into consideration, but don't rely on it" That's what sharp American handicappers did 130 years ago.

Europe thinks we need to turn the clock back 130 years.

I suppose we still have the Experimental Free Handicap to please them.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Start reading with Post #10: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22616

This was almost as entertaining as the Street Sense and Orb stuff after the Derby.

That DrugS dude was pretty edgy.

As for the hat wearing Derby attendees -- Churchill is built so you're shielded from the wind for the most part as long as you are on the first floor. You also have all of those extra structures that they put up on the first turn. On the telecast they were showing people in the higher up seats and they were definitely being affected by the wind.

[rpncaine]

Having a steady girl seems to have mellowed him a bit don't you think?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.

it amazes me each year to hear people say 'this horse is the one'. since the tc is so seldom won, i find it surprising how many are so quick to say it's about to happen. obviously cc is the only one who can win it this year, but it's certainly far from a given that he will do so.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

He can certainly improve off his Wood effort, but getting caught by Samraat, who had every chance in the Derby and just wasn't good enough, gives me some concern about Social Inclusion.

He attended the pace and was hung wide early. It was a solid effort. But if the Derby pace wasn't strong, then neither was the Wood. But he made me more of a believer than his perfect trip GP efforts did.

I'm interested in Pablo Del Monte if I can get a big enough price. His BG effort was strong into a pace collapse. He had decent efforts on dirt at GP. May be a synthetic lover though.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Mack

He can certainly improve off his Wood effort, but getting caught by Samraat, who had every chance in the Derby and just wasn't good enough, gives me some concern about Social Inclusion.

He attended the pace and was hung wide early. It was a solid effort. But if the Derby pace wasn't strong, then neither was the Wood. But he made me more of a believer than his perfect trip GP efforts did.

The Wood was Social Inclusion's 3rd lifetime race. Beyer (and others) correctly predicted that he would be unable to handle the jump to a Grade I in his 3rd start. He was completely washed out before the race began.

Whether he can win the Preakness in his 4th start is open to question, but I think he'll be competitive with CC.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cardus

It looks like you are linking Social Inclusion washing out before the race with his attempt at a Grade I so early in his career.

If that is so, are you saying that if the race were a Grade II, III, or an unlisted stake, he would not have washed out before the race?

No, I didn't mean to suggest that. I'm saying that the more times a horse races, the less likely they are to find something new to over-react to. With just 2 previous races, any number of things could have caused the washing out at Aqueduct.

--Dunbar