The Derby figure

[Gaelic Storm]

Great Analysis. There are 6 or 7 horses that had trips where someone said they would have been 2nd or 3rd with a better trip, but with how the race played out I keep thinking there are no trips in slow race. Should trips be downgraded out of the derby?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Gaelic Storm

Great Analysis. There are 6 or 7 horses that had trips where someone said they would have been 2nd or 3rd with a better trip, but with how the race played out I keep thinking there are no trips in slow race. Should trips be downgraded out of the derby?

as you said and I believe this here are no trips in slow races. I suppose pace trips maybe but in this race the pace was average.

[Thunder Gulch]

I don't make my own and have an enormous respect for those who do. That said, I have always disliked adding subjectivity to adjust figures up or down in an attempt to boil everything down to a figure. To me that is what the "art" of handicapping is all about. Give me the data- pace fractions, good variants, and let me draw my own conclusions about who ran the best race, and more importantly, who projects to run the best race on the day I am handicapping.

[bare it all]

Thanks for having Andy on to discuss the figure. Regardless of what the masses think, he's not just making crap up.

[Mack]

The problem is that this has turned into a food fight with everyone talking past each other. I think there's valid considerations on either side.

Regardless of the fig, the clock says the race was slow and that’s black and white and now etched in the history books.

The question in front of me is how am I going to use the fig, the clock, and all that other information from the day going forward. I’m of the mind that the wind is playing a much bigger role than is being allowed for in the figs. I think the pace actually was strong into that stiff breeze and stronger than the clock indicated.

If it was such a soft pace, why didn’t the speed stick better? If you look at the chart without the fractions, it looks like partial, if not total, pace collapse. So I’m giving most credit to Chrome and Samraat in my hindsight handicapping. Maybe I’m wrong, but I won’t know until I get more races from these guys.

Specifically to Beyer’s point in his article about Chrome’s move at the top of the stretch being an illusion, go watch the blimp view of the race from the long video on DRF. Skip to the 9:00 mark and tell me if that turn of foot is illusory.

[10 pnt move up]

good post mack

I just cant use the race for anything really. Will toss it out from the PP's from a pace and time wise.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Mack

The problem is that this has turned into a food fight with everyone talking past each other. I think there's valid considerations on either side.

Regardless of the fig, the clock says the race was slow and that’s black and white and now etched in the history books.

The question in front of me is how am I going to use the fig, the clock, and all that other information from the day going forward. I’m of the mind that the wind is playing a much bigger role than is being allowed for in the figs. I think the pace actually was strong into that stiff breeze and stronger than the clock indicated.

If it was such a soft pace, why didn’t the speed stick better? If you look at the chart without the fractions, it looks like partial, if not total, pace collapse. So I’m giving most credit to Chrome and Samraat in my hindsight handicapping. Maybe I’m wrong, but I won’t know until I get more races from these guys.

Specifically to Beyer’s point in his article about Chrome’s move at the top of the stretch being an illusion, go watch the blimp view of the race from the long video on DRF. Skip to the 9:00 mark and tell me if that turn of foot is illusory.

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by 3kings

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.

Very fair point.

[tector]

Originally Posted by 3kings

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

I stopped paying attention to his Belmont figure a few years ago. I add points to it in a way that gives me a result that makes sense.

There is no rule that says 6F in "X" time = 10F in "Y" time = 12F in "Z" time.

The purpose of speed figures is not to equate horses from 20 or more years ago with horses today. IMO there's too much subjective figure drift, drug use has changed (legal and illegal), class structures have changed, training styles have changed etc... to do that really well anyway. People disagree on figures for the same day at the same track, let alone 20-30 years ago.

The purpose of figures is to equate horses running at different distances on different tracks from each others NOW. So IMO if the relationships between distances have changed because the horses have changed, then the speed figure charts have to change.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

He should have long ago adjusted his speed charts to reflect racing today, not how it was in 1974.