The Derby figure

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.

[Calzone Lord]

Start reading with Post #10: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22616

This was almost as entertaining as the Street Sense and Orb stuff after the Derby.

[10 pnt move up]

I dont see nearly the type of hype with CC that there was with the horse you have used, if anything there seems to be a backlash you dont see with horses with his form and ease of wins at this point in the trail.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I dont see nearly the type of hype with CC that there was with the horse you have used, if anything there seems to be a backlash you dont see with horses with his form and ease of wins at this point in the trail.

He's not being hyped like Orb, Fu Peg, Street Sense, or Big Brown after the Preakness? I'd probably agree with that.

Still...even though most figs had him as the fastest horse coming into the race... TVG analysts, industry people, and European are now using him as a platform to trash American style speed figures.

The European Racing experts are seriously like arguing with Walter Vosburgh. I LOVE Walter Vosburgh, but he's been dead for almost a century.

The "form based ratings, that take sectional times and final times into consideration, but don't rely on it" That's what sharp American handicappers did 130 years ago.

Europe thinks we need to turn the clock back 130 years.

I suppose we still have the Experimental Free Handicap to please them.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Start reading with Post #10: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22616

This was almost as entertaining as the Street Sense and Orb stuff after the Derby.

That DrugS dude was pretty edgy.

As for the hat wearing Derby attendees -- Churchill is built so you're shielded from the wind for the most part as long as you are on the first floor. You also have all of those extra structures that they put up on the first turn. On the telecast they were showing people in the higher up seats and they were definitely being affected by the wind.

[rpncaine]

Having a steady girl seems to have mellowed him a bit don't you think?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.

it amazes me each year to hear people say 'this horse is the one'. since the tc is so seldom won, i find it surprising how many are so quick to say it's about to happen. obviously cc is the only one who can win it this year, but it's certainly far from a given that he will do so.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

He can certainly improve off his Wood effort, but getting caught by Samraat, who had every chance in the Derby and just wasn't good enough, gives me some concern about Social Inclusion.

He attended the pace and was hung wide early. It was a solid effort. But if the Derby pace wasn't strong, then neither was the Wood. But he made me more of a believer than his perfect trip GP efforts did.

I'm interested in Pablo Del Monte if I can get a big enough price. His BG effort was strong into a pace collapse. He had decent efforts on dirt at GP. May be a synthetic lover though.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Mack

He can certainly improve off his Wood effort, but getting caught by Samraat, who had every chance in the Derby and just wasn't good enough, gives me some concern about Social Inclusion.

He attended the pace and was hung wide early. It was a solid effort. But if the Derby pace wasn't strong, then neither was the Wood. But he made me more of a believer than his perfect trip GP efforts did.

The Wood was Social Inclusion's 3rd lifetime race. Beyer (and others) correctly predicted that he would be unable to handle the jump to a Grade I in his 3rd start. He was completely washed out before the race began.

Whether he can win the Preakness in his 4th start is open to question, but I think he'll be competitive with CC.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cardus

It looks like you are linking Social Inclusion washing out before the race with his attempt at a Grade I so early in his career.

If that is so, are you saying that if the race were a Grade II, III, or an unlisted stake, he would not have washed out before the race?

No, I didn't mean to suggest that. I'm saying that the more times a horse races, the less likely they are to find something new to over-react to. With just 2 previous races, any number of things could have caused the washing out at Aqueduct.

--Dunbar