Royal Delta 2.0

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

So are you saying that it makes no difference whether a jockey is asking a horse or not? Horses just run as fast as they can no matter what? How could a jockey even position his horse in a race if horses will just run as fast as they can no matter what? You obviously don't think that. So why would you think that a horse will run as fast as they can at the end of a race if they are not being asked? You think a horse will allow a jockey to restrain him early in a race, but not late in a race? That makes no sense.

I agree with you that people often make a mistake in thinking that a horse is not all out simply because the horse is not being whipped. If a horse is being fairly vigorously hand-ridden, they are probably all out. But if a horse is actually being restrained, which does not happen particularly often, the chances are the horse could have run faster. It's the same in a morning workout. The more you ask a horse, the faster the horse will run, at the beginning of the work, and at the end of the work.

With regard to Elate, I said in my first post in this thread that I think she is a very nice filly. But the chances of her being as good as Unique Bella are extremely unlikely.

Instead of criticizing me for saying, "I told you so", why not compliment me for making a good call. I said I though this filly was the best 2 year old filly in the country after her maiden win. As of right now, I think that looks like a pretty good call. It may not have taken a genius to figure out that she was a great filly, but it's never a sure thing that an impressive maiden winner will turn out to be a great horse.

With regard to me teasing RHT a little bit, it was all in good fun. I will have no problem with him teasing me a little bit the next time he is right and I am wrong. In this business we are all going to be wrong quite often.

Why is it extremely unlikely? I have no issue at all with anything you said regarding me. This is good convo.....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Why is it extremely unlikely? I have no issue at all with anything you said regarding me. This is good convo.....

It is extremely unlikely because Unique Bella looks like an absolute freak. At this point, she is as impressive as any filly I've seen in years. What are the chances that Elate will be that good? It is possible but I think it is extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely for any filly to be as good as Unique Bella.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It is extremely unlikely because Unique Bella looks like an absolute freak. At this point, she is as impressive as any filly I've seen in years. What are the chances that Elate will be that good? It is possible but I think it is extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely for any filly to be as good as Unique Bella.

Smith rode Inside Information to easier victories against tougher stock during the same time of year back in 1994.

In fact, any of the top fillies that year, from Lakeway to Sardula to Heavenly Prize would have made a mess of Unique Bella at this stage.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Going back to the debate about gearing horses down, as I said before, it does not happen particularly often that a horse is geared down to the point that the horse would have won by a much bigger margin. I see maybe a handful of these cases in an entire year. But when I do see the rare occurrence of a horse winning by 3-5 lengths less than they could have if they were asked, I will put the horse on my watch list because you can occasionally get an overlay in these cases the next time the horse runs. People do pay attention to speed figures. The difference between a horse getting a 78 Beyer compared to an 88 Beyer can make a big difference in a horse's price the next time they run.

I will give you a good example of this. Watch Amberjack's race at Belmont on May 11, 2013 (the 8th race). He could have won by 5-6 lengths. Rosario totally geared him down and he ended up winning by less than a length. It was an allowance race. In his next start, he came back in a stakes race and went off at 12-1 and won again. For anyone who was handicapping that stakes race and looking at Amberjack's PPs, his previous race did not look especially impressive on paper. It looked like he barely won in a mediocre time. That was a case where you got a much bigger price because people misjudged his win. If Rosario did not gear him down in the allowance race, he probably wins the allowance race by 5-6 lengths. And he probably goes off at 5-1 in the stakes race instead of 12-1. This type of thing does not happen often, but when it does, it is an angle that you can sometimes take advantage of.

The problem for most people is that they are not good judges as to what extent a horse was geared down. I see plenty of cases where horses are geared down 70 yards from the wire and the gearing down is practically meaningless because it was not extreme and it happened so close to the wire. In many of these cases, the gearing down did not even cost the horse a half a length.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The problem for most people is that they are not good judges as to what extent a horse was geared down.

The more likely scenario is that people only look at the running line in the DRF and don't bother to watch the actual race replay.

And perhaps a more useful angle with regards to "geared down" horses are the runner-ups, who might look strong on paper despite getting brow beat and thus are overbet next out.

The extreme case is Dortmund in last year's Awesome Again. Absolutely humiliated in that race, yet the running line looked almost as solid as his San Diego effort and he was sent off at odds-on in the BC Dirt Mile.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The more likely scenario is that people only look at the running line in the DRF and don't bother to watch the actual race replay.

And perhaps a more useful angle with regards to "geared down" horses are the runner-ups, who might look strong on paper despite getting brow beat and thus are overbet next out.

The extreme case is Dortmund in last year's Awesome Again. Absolutely humiliated in that race, yet the running line looked almost as solid as his San Diego effort and he was sent off at odds-on in the BC Dirt Mile.

I agree with you about Dortmund in the Awesome Again. I just watched the replay. Chrome could have beaten him by at least another 3 lengths and that is being conservative.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with you about Dortmund in the Awesome Again. I just watched the replay. Chrome could have beaten him by at least another 3 lengths and that is being conservative.

Ill watch now.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with you about Dortmund in the Awesome Again. I just watched the replay. Chrome could have beaten him by at least another 3 lengths and that is being conservative.

I think he was going top speed.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It is extremely unlikely because Unique Bella looks like an absolute freak. At this point, she is as impressive as any filly I've seen in years. What are the chances that Elate will be that good? It is possible but I think it is extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely for any filly to be as good as Unique Bella.

While I gave her credit and say she might be better then Songbird at this time I feel like you are grossly overrating her.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

While I gave her credit and say she might be better then Songbird at this time I feel like you are grossly overrating her.

I share your opinion. I told people even before this race that I thought she was better than Songbird. Would I have been willing to bet on it at even money? Of course not. Horses are so fragile. Any race could be her last race. Songbird won 9 in a row and lost the BC Distaff by a nose. This filly has a long way to go before accomplishing what Songbird accomplished.

What you are saying sounds like a contradiction. If you think she might be better than Songbird, then why would you think I'm grossly overrating her? Songbird has had an amazing career, even if she never runs another race. If Unique Bella is better than Songbird, that is saying something.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I share your opinion. I told people even before this race that I thought she was better than Songbird. Would I have been willing to bet on it at even money? Of course not. Horses are so fragile. Any race could be her last race. Songbird won 9 in a row and lost the BC Distaff by a nose. This filly has a long way to go before accomplishing what Songbird accomplished.

What you are saying sounds like a contradiction. If you think she might be better than Songbird, then why would you think I'm grossly overrating her? Songbird has had an amazing career, even if she never runs another race. If Unique Bella is better than Songbird, that is saying something.

Because I think Songbird is overrated and over hyped. IMO her best race was the race she lost and even in that race she was able to control a slow pace and still couldn't win.