Royal Delta 2.0

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
The speed figure is totally meaningless in this case. She was never asked. She could have won by at least another 3-4 lengths. In addition, she was 4-wide. You can add at least 8-10 points to her speed figure.

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Ill never buy stuff like this. Arrogate was never asked much before the Travers and was breezing w/ 99 and 104's.
This horse is bound to be grossly over bet because of the blowout win and the Songbird factor.

You should start buying stuff like that. She ran a 98 yesterday. She added 10 points to her speed figure, like she figured to. And even yesterday she made a premature move into a very fast pace. In addition, she wasn't all out the final 16th of a mile. She can easily move up another 5-6 Beyer points off that race. If she continues to improve at this pace, pretty soon she might be able to compete with Elate.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
The speed figure is totally meaningless in this case. She was never asked. She could have won by at least another 3-4 lengths. In addition, she was 4-wide. You can add at least 8-10 points to her speed figure.



You should start buying stuff like that. She ran a 98 yesterday. She added 10 points to her speed figure, like she figured to. And even yesterday she made a premature move into a very fast pace. In addition, she wasn't all out the final 16th of a mile. She can easily move up another 5-6 Beyer points off that race. If she continues to improve at this pace, pretty soon she might be able to compete with Elate.

Go easy on the Hen. I think he bet the Patriots in the first half and the Falcons in the second half.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Go easy on the Hen. I think he bet the Patriots in the first half and the Falcons in the second half.

She looked good yesterday. Honestly I am more impressed w/ her then I was with Songbird at this point. Ill still take either Mott filly moving forward. Time will tell.....

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Ill still take either Mott filly moving forward. Time will tell.....

Elate entered in the Suncoast Stakes on the Sam F. Davis card at Tampa on Saturday.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Elate entered in the Suncoast Stakes on the Sam F. Davis card at Tampa on Saturday.

Expecting a powerful performance.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Expecting a powerful performance.

And Tapa Tapa Tapa delivered one first time on dirt..

Happy for Tim Hamm to have this kind of horse. Half to Cloudy Vow out of a half sister of Cosmonaut.

[NTamm1215]

Tapa Tapa Tapa was solid for sure.

I thought Elate ran fine. Felt like Mott wanted to get one into her with her relatively brief worktab. She'll move forward from here.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
The speed figure is totally meaningless in this case. She was never asked. She could have won by at least another 3-4 lengths. In addition, she was 4-wide. You can add at least 8-10 points to her speed figure.



You should start buying stuff like that. She ran a 98 yesterday. She added 10 points to her speed figure, like she figured to. And even yesterday she made a premature move into a very fast pace. In addition, she wasn't all out the final 16th of a mile. She can easily move up another 5-6 Beyer points off that race. If she continues to improve at this pace, pretty soon she might be able to compete with Elate.

This is a bit silly, and an extremely lame attempt at "I told you so." The fact that a newly turned 3YO ran 11 Beyer points higher than her maiden win, which was off a five month layoff, and then ten points better than her second start off that layoff, hardly proves the "this horse could easily have gone much faster" BS that gets spewed with relative regularity, and is, in fact, BS in virtually every case ( they said it about Bernardini, like it was a given, and it proved to not be the case ). In this case, it was likely a combination of the fact that maybe she could have gone a little faster and she's improving with time, experience, and training.

Unique Bella is a terrific horse. Possibly better than last year's flavor of the month/year. Do you really need to say "I told you so" to make yourself feel better?

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me also add something about Elate....is it likely she's as good as Unique Bella appears to be? No, but given her debut, it's hardly impossible, and isn't that what any racing fan should be rooting for....two top class race horses headed for real showdowns? A true East/West rivalry is fun. I'm not saying it will happen, but it sure would be great.

I don't know why people are already snidely denigrating one in order to promote the other. It sure feels like we see a lot of that from people out West about West coast horses. Insecure anyone?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me also add something about Elate....is it likely she's as good as Unique Bella appears to be? No, but given her debut, it's hardly impossible, and isn't that what any racing fan should be rooting for....two top class race horses headed for real showdowns? A true East/West rivalry is fun. I'm not saying it will happen, but it sure would be great.

I don't know why people are already snidely denigrating one in order to promote the other. It sure feels like we see a lot of that from people out West about West coast horses. Insecure anyone?

I'm pretty sure he was taking a shot at rock Tard Hen and not doing the west coast vs east coast thing. As to why, it's because rth is rth.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm pretty sure he was taking a shot at rock Tard Hen and not doing the west coast vs east coast thing. As to why, it's because rth is rth.

The Elate comment, which I agree was directed at RTH, was still silly.

I just hate the "this horse could easily have gone faster" line as it is rarely the case.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Elate comment, which I agree was directed at RTH, was still silly.

I just hate the "this horse could easily have gone faster" line as it is rarely the case.

It's a terrible argument.

It's also ironic that Mike Smith had no problem slapping the sh.it out of Arrogate the whole way home in the Travers but cuddles both Songbird and Unique Bella. I'd never question his motives or knowledge in any way, but I'd love to see him let the latter run next time if she's well clear.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's a terrible argument.

It's also ironic that Mike Smith had no problem slapping the sh.it out of Arrogate the whole way home in the Travers but cuddles both Songbird and Unique Bella. I'd never question his motives or knowledge in any way, but I'd love to see him let the latter run next time if she's well clear.

I asked this question, take the response for what its worth but was told that Arrogate tends to start looking around and can shut off, and he did not see the type of lead he had built up in the Travers and did not want to get caught if the horse suddenly started slowing on his own.

If you watch him over the years he does like to really gear horses down in stretch when they are winning easy, guess we all have our faults.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's a terrible argument.

It's also ironic that Mike Smith had no problem slapping the sh.it out of Arrogate the whole way home in the Travers but cuddles both Songbird and Unique Bella. I'd never question his motives or knowledge in any way, but I'd love to see him let the latter run next time if she's well clear.

If you can get a video of the 1990 Jim Dandy you will really see what Smith is capable of.

I think the whip count was higher than the Beyer Speed Figure.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is a bit silly, and an extremely lame attempt at "I told you so." The fact that a newly turned 3YO ran 11 Beyer points higher than her maiden win, which was off a five month layoff, and then ten points better than her second start off that layoff, hardly proves the "this horse could easily have gone much faster" BS that gets spewed with relative regularity, and is, in fact, BS in virtually every case ( they said it about Bernardini, like it was a given, and it proved to not be the case ). In this case, it was likely a combination of the fact that maybe she could have gone a little faster and she's improving with time, experience, and training.

Unique Bella is a terrific horse. Possibly better than last year's flavor of the month/year. Do you really need to say "I told you so" to make yourself feel better?

So are you saying that it makes no difference whether a jockey is asking a horse or not? Horses just run as fast as they can no matter what? How could a jockey even position his horse in a race if horses will just run as fast as they can no matter what? You obviously don't think that. So why would you think that a horse will run as fast as they can at the end of a race if they are not being asked? You think a horse will allow a jockey to restrain him early in a race, but not late in a race? That makes no sense.

I agree with you that people often make a mistake in thinking that a horse is not all out simply because the horse is not being whipped. If a horse is being fairly vigorously hand-ridden, they are probably all out, regardless of whether they are being whipped. But if a horse is actually being restrained, which does not happen particularly often, the chances are the horse could have run faster. It's the same in a morning workout. The more you ask a horse, the faster the horse will run, at the beginning of the work, and at the end of the work.

With regard to Elate, I said in my first post in this thread that I think she is a very nice filly. But the chances of her being as good as Unique Bella are extremely unlikely.

Instead of criticizing me for saying, "I told you so", why not compliment me for making a good call. I said I though this filly was the best 2 year old filly in the country after her maiden win. As of right now, I think that looks like a pretty good call. It may not have taken a genius to figure out that she was a great filly, but it's never a sure thing that an impressive maiden winner will turn out to be a great horse.

With regard to me teasing RHT a little bit, it was all in good fun. I will have no problem with him teasing me a little bit the next time he is right and I am wrong. In this business we are all going to be wrong quite often.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

So are you saying that it makes no difference whether a jockey is asking a horse or not? Horses just run as fast as they can no matter what? How could a jockey even position his horse in a race if horses will just run as fast as they can no matter what? You obviously don't think that. So why would you think that a horse will run as fast as they can at the end of a race if they are not being asked? You think a horse will allow a jockey to restrain him early in a race, but not late in a race? That makes no sense.

I agree with you that people often make a mistake in thinking that a horse is not all out simply because the horse is not being whipped. If a horse is being fairly vigorously hand-ridden, they are probably all out. But if a horse is actually being restrained, which does not happen particularly often, the chances are the horse could have run faster. It's the same in a morning workout. The more you ask a horse, the faster the horse will run, at the beginning of the work, and at the end of the work.

With regard to Elate, I said in my first post in this thread that I think she is a very nice filly. But the chances of her being as good as Unique Bella are extremely unlikely.

Instead of criticizing me for saying, "I told you so", why not compliment me for making a good call. I said I though this filly was the best 2 year old filly in the country after her maiden win. As of right now, I think that looks like a pretty good call. It may not have taken a genius to figure out that she was a great filly, but it's never a sure thing that an impressive maiden winner will turn out to be a great horse.

With regard to me teasing RHT a little bit, it was all in good fun. I will have no problem with him teasing me a little bit the next time he is right and I am wrong. In this business we are all going to be wrong quite often.

Why is it extremely unlikely? I have no issue at all with anything you said regarding me. This is good convo.....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Why is it extremely unlikely? I have no issue at all with anything you said regarding me. This is good convo.....

It is extremely unlikely because Unique Bella looks like an absolute freak. At this point, she is as impressive as any filly I've seen in years. What are the chances that Elate will be that good? It is possible but I think it is extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely for any filly to be as good as Unique Bella.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It is extremely unlikely because Unique Bella looks like an absolute freak. At this point, she is as impressive as any filly I've seen in years. What are the chances that Elate will be that good? It is possible but I think it is extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely for any filly to be as good as Unique Bella.

Smith rode Inside Information to easier victories against tougher stock during the same time of year back in 1994.

In fact, any of the top fillies that year, from Lakeway to Sardula to Heavenly Prize would have made a mess of Unique Bella at this stage.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Going back to the debate about gearing horses down, as I said before, it does not happen particularly often that a horse is geared down to the point that the horse would have won by a much bigger margin. I see maybe a handful of these cases in an entire year. But when I do see the rare occurrence of a horse winning by 3-5 lengths less than they could have if they were asked, I will put the horse on my watch list because you can occasionally get an overlay in these cases the next time the horse runs. People do pay attention to speed figures. The difference between a horse getting a 78 Beyer compared to an 88 Beyer can make a big difference in a horse's price the next time they run.

I will give you a good example of this. Watch Amberjack's race at Belmont on May 11, 2013 (the 8th race). He could have won by 5-6 lengths. Rosario totally geared him down and he ended up winning by less than a length. It was an allowance race. In his next start, he came back in a stakes race and went off at 12-1 and won again. For anyone who was handicapping that stakes race and looking at Amberjack's PPs, his previous race did not look especially impressive on paper. It looked like he barely won in a mediocre time. That was a case where you got a much bigger price because people misjudged his win. If Rosario did not gear him down in the allowance race, he probably wins the allowance race by 5-6 lengths. And he probably goes off at 5-1 in the stakes race instead of 12-1. This type of thing does not happen often, but when it does, it is an angle that you can sometimes take advantage of.

The problem for most people is that they are not good judges as to what extent a horse was geared down. I see plenty of cases where horses are geared down 70 yards from the wire and the gearing down is practically meaningless because it was not extreme and it happened so close to the wire. In many of these cases, the gearing down did not even cost the horse a half a length.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It is extremely unlikely because Unique Bella looks like an absolute freak. At this point, she is as impressive as any filly I've seen in years. What are the chances that Elate will be that good? It is possible but I think it is extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely for any filly to be as good as Unique Bella.

While I gave her credit and say she might be better then Songbird at this time I feel like you are grossly overrating her.