Royal Delta 2.0

[Rupert Pupkin]

Going back to the debate about gearing horses down, as I said before, it does not happen particularly often that a horse is geared down to the point that the horse would have won by a much bigger margin. I see maybe a handful of these cases in an entire year. But when I do see the rare occurrence of a horse winning by 3-5 lengths less than they could have if they were asked, I will put the horse on my watch list because you can occasionally get an overlay in these cases the next time the horse runs. People do pay attention to speed figures. The difference between a horse getting a 78 Beyer compared to an 88 Beyer can make a big difference in a horse's price the next time they run.

I will give you a good example of this. Watch Amberjack's race at Belmont on May 11, 2013 (the 8th race). He could have won by 5-6 lengths. Rosario totally geared him down and he ended up winning by less than a length. It was an allowance race. In his next start, he came back in a stakes race and went off at 12-1 and won again. For anyone who was handicapping that stakes race and looking at Amberjack's PPs, his previous race did not look especially impressive on paper. It looked like he barely won in a mediocre time. That was a case where you got a much bigger price because people misjudged his win. If Rosario did not gear him down in the allowance race, he probably wins the allowance race by 5-6 lengths. And he probably goes off at 5-1 in the stakes race instead of 12-1. This type of thing does not happen often, but when it does, it is an angle that you can sometimes take advantage of.

The problem for most people is that they are not good judges as to what extent a horse was geared down. I see plenty of cases where horses are geared down 70 yards from the wire and the gearing down is practically meaningless because it was not extreme and it happened so close to the wire. In many of these cases, the gearing down did not even cost the horse a half a length.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The problem for most people is that they are not good judges as to what extent a horse was geared down.

The more likely scenario is that people only look at the running line in the DRF and don't bother to watch the actual race replay.

And perhaps a more useful angle with regards to "geared down" horses are the runner-ups, who might look strong on paper despite getting brow beat and thus are overbet next out.

The extreme case is Dortmund in last year's Awesome Again. Absolutely humiliated in that race, yet the running line looked almost as solid as his San Diego effort and he was sent off at odds-on in the BC Dirt Mile.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The more likely scenario is that people only look at the running line in the DRF and don't bother to watch the actual race replay.

And perhaps a more useful angle with regards to "geared down" horses are the runner-ups, who might look strong on paper despite getting brow beat and thus are overbet next out.

The extreme case is Dortmund in last year's Awesome Again. Absolutely humiliated in that race, yet the running line looked almost as solid as his San Diego effort and he was sent off at odds-on in the BC Dirt Mile.

I agree with you about Dortmund in the Awesome Again. I just watched the replay. Chrome could have beaten him by at least another 3 lengths and that is being conservative.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with you about Dortmund in the Awesome Again. I just watched the replay. Chrome could have beaten him by at least another 3 lengths and that is being conservative.

Ill watch now.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with you about Dortmund in the Awesome Again. I just watched the replay. Chrome could have beaten him by at least another 3 lengths and that is being conservative.

I think he was going top speed.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think he was going top speed.

Even though Chrome was only being mildly asked, I agree with you that he was going close to top speed until about 90 yards from the wire. But at that point Espinoza had him extremely geared down. That is why he was drawing further and further away from Dortmund until that point and then Dortmund actually gained a few lengths on him that final 80-90 yards.