1/28 (GP): $12MM Pegasus World Cup

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Current Fixed Odds at Bovada

Horse             Odds
 
Arrogate          1/1  
California Chrome 5/4 
Noble Bird       20/1  
Neolithic        25/1  
Keen Ice         25/1  
Stanford         25/1 
Shaman Ghost     33/1 
Breaking Lucky   33/1  
War Story        66/1   
Eragon           66/1  
Sea Raven       100/1  
Madefromlucky   100/1  
PrayerforRelief 150/1 
Semper Fortis   150/1 
War Envoy       200/1

[cakes44]

Thank you sir.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

In a win pool of $1.5 to $2 million, I'm suspect of how much "fan" money is going to affect the odds, but you could be right.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

I think fan money will be mostly small potatoes. The smart big money will certainly be scared off by the 12 hole.. I see 3:5 and 8:5 myself.. Any big money to be made will be in the horizontals in the improbable upset. They still need to run the race and crazy stuff could happen... Hopefully I can find a decent non favorite or 2 to single on the races leading up to this.

[Secretriat34]

As I think back to 2004 and reflect on the top 2 finishers in the BCC and the DWC, I see a similarity between MDO and Pleasantly Perfect and this year’s top 2 BCC runners, Chrome and Arrogate. In 2017 however, 13 years later, the DWC has been replaced by the inaugural running of the Pegasus world cup.
The big difference this year is the distance. While both the BCC and DWC were run at 10f on dirt, the Pegasus is run at 9f. And this change alone makes it impractical to compare the winning situation. While in 2004 MDO was headed for victory to be caught at the 9.5 f mark by PP. as was CC in 2017 by Arrogate in the BCC. The shorter race at GP (9f) may make the end result quite different. AT the 9f mark in the 2016 Bcc CC was a winner, will CC be a winner at 9f at Gulfstream.
How much are you willing to wager on this ?

I read TVG is offering 10 to 1 odds on either CC or Arrogate to win
9f makes the PWC a different animal than the DWC, and the question to be asked is at 9f can a horse other than the top 2 be the winner ?..and if TVG is offering 10 to 1 , building up pool sizes, would a place bet on anyhorse other than CC or Arrow, be the best wager on the day, as the inflated pools will offer much value on the place winner if the top 2 finish 1,3..or even worse.

Thoughts ?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

As I think back to 2004 and reflect on the top 2 finishers in the BCC and the DWC, I see a similarity between MDO and Pleasantly Perfect and this year’s top 2 BCC runners, Chrome and Arrogate. In 2017 however, 13 years later, the DWC has been replaced by the inaugural running of the Pegasus world cup.
The big difference this year is the distance. While both the BCC and DWC were run at 10f on dirt, the Pegasus is run at 9f. And this change alone makes it impractical to compare the winning situation. While in 2004 MDO was headed for victory to be caught at the 9.5 f mark by PP. as was CC in 2017 by Arrogate in the BCC. The shorter race at GP (9f) may make the end result quite different. AT the 9f mark in the 2016 Bcc CC was a winner, will CC be a winner at 9f at Gulfstream.
How much are you willing to wager on this ?

I read TVG is offering 10 to 1 odds on either CC or Arrogate to win
9f makes the PWC a different animal than the DWC, and the question to be asked is at 9f can a horse other than the top 2 be the winner ?..and if TVG is offering 10 to 1 , building up pool sizes, would a place bet on anyhorse other than CC or Arrow, be the best wager on the day, as the inflated pools will offer much value on the place winner if the top 2 finish 1,3..or even worse.

Thoughts ?

TVG offer is only on new accounts. If I was setting up an account I would take the 10-1 on arrogate