1/28 (GP): $12MM Pegasus World Cup

[jms62]

In the last 2 years they ran this distance on the dirt 12 times. Ten of those races had 7 or More entries. These are the winning post positions

PP-Wins
3 -  6
5 -  3
6 -  1
7 -  2

[Alabama Stakes]

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

No.. Post 3 won half and 5-6-7 the other. Posts 1-2 won as many as post 12

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

That button must have gotten stuck in the stretch of the Bc Classic.

[Pants II]

I'm boycotting Gulfstream the rest of the meet.

Hope Perry and Co. scratch.

[Pants II]

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Pants II

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

That button must have gotten stuck in the stretch of the Bc Classic.

Push button speed does not mean when you are in the stretch drive when you are asking for a hoss' best run. but then, you already knew that, right ? You figured you'd take the potshot anyway. You'd fit in with the Giants secondary

[richard burch]

Going with Chrome ...perfect post to stalk and pounce....arrogate must go from the 1 hole.....lots of early speed signed on and horses will go to the front. I know playing closers at G.P isn't vogue but I can see some tired front runners in the last 1/8th and set up beautifully for either Shaman Ghost or Semper Fortis to get the exacta.

BAM!!!

[Benny]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1718484

[ScottJ]

This weekend, NYRABets is having a $20 win bet rebate on the Pegasus World Cup if your horse finishes second. To me, this makes Arrogate an automatic play.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

However you choose to fantasize his trip, it's undeniable that he will have to travel 10-15 lengths further, minimum, than Arrogate will have to in the end.

If he pulls it off, he's cements his legacy as a horse of a lifetime; if he doesn't, it proves nothing.

That's the disappointing part. It will always be considered an asterisk on Arrogate's resume more than it will be a career-defining win.

[MaTH716]

Chrome had it all his way in the BC, while Arrogate was the one who broke from outside, ended up rating and then nailing him at the wire. I just don't see Chrome getting a better trip than he did at Santa Anita. I do think Arrogate is a monster, that being said I don't remember him ever in a position where he had to take a lot of dirt. Even in the BC, Smith kept him clear and wide. Who knows how he could react to somehow getting pinned inside.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Chrome had it all his way in the BC, while Arrogate was the one who broke from outside, ended up rating and then nailing him at the wire. I just don't see Chrome getting a better trip than he did at Santa Anita. I do think Arrogate is a monster, that being said I don't remember him ever in a position where he had to take a lot of dirt. Even in the BC, Smith kept him clear and wide. Who knows how he could react to somehow getting pinned inside.

When did taking dirt, especially by experienced racehorses, suddenly become some sort of issue?

I think it may be, right now, the most misunderstood and overrated theoretical trip excuse.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If he pulls it off, he's cements his legacy as a horse of a lifetime; if he doesn't, it proves nothing.

That's the disappointing part. It will always be considered an asterisk on Arrogate's resume more than it will be a career-defining win.

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

Interesting perspective as I did not project this race to be as strung out on the front end. On first glance, I could not see all three of Velazquez, Castellano, and Ortiz making this easy for the inside horse with Smith on board ... then I re-read your comment about the slow paces on our hometown NYRA circuit and was depending on the three key New York jockeys to cause the chaos.

[taxicab]

I'm thinking Frank Stronach really got lucky having Arrogate/Chrome make it to this race.
The appeal/talent level of the two main players is major.
Digging a bit more into Arrogate/Chrome:

Arrogate:
3yo Champion/jaw dropping final time in the Travers/highest ranked horse in the world/great company lines in his Gr. 1 races.
He's 2 for 2 in Gr.1's(major Gr.1's),defeating 10 Gr.1 winners (that's the stat that jumps out at you).

Chrome:
Dual Classic winner/Two time HOY/4 time Eclipse Award winner.........etc.
His Gr.1 resume is also huge.
He's 7 for 11 in Gr.1's........winning on 6 different courses(that might be his best stat).
He's beaten 19(at least) Gr.1 winning horses in his Gr.1 victories.
In fairness to Chrome,if you add up the amount of Gr.1 wins the 19 horses have accounted for the number bumps up quite a bit.

Moral of the post.....
I'd be surprised if future runnings of the Pegasus have the interest of this Saturday's race.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by jms62

In the last 2 years they ran this distance on the dirt 12 times. Ten of those races had 7 or More entries. These are the winning post positions

PP-Wins
3 -  6
5 -  3
6 -  1
7 -  2

7 - 13