1/28 (GP): $12MM Pegasus World Cup

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If he pulls it off, he's cements his legacy as a horse of a lifetime; if he doesn't, it proves nothing.

That's the disappointing part. It will always be considered an asterisk on Arrogate's resume more than it will be a career-defining win.

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

Interesting perspective as I did not project this race to be as strung out on the front end. On first glance, I could not see all three of Velazquez, Castellano, and Ortiz making this easy for the inside horse with Smith on board ... then I re-read your comment about the slow paces on our hometown NYRA circuit and was depending on the three key New York jockeys to cause the chaos.

[taxicab]

I'm thinking Frank Stronach really got lucky having Arrogate/Chrome make it to this race.
The appeal/talent level of the two main players is major.
Digging a bit more into Arrogate/Chrome:

Arrogate:
3yo Champion/jaw dropping final time in the Travers/highest ranked horse in the world/great company lines in his Gr. 1 races.
He's 2 for 2 in Gr.1's(major Gr.1's),defeating 10 Gr.1 winners (that's the stat that jumps out at you).

Chrome:
Dual Classic winner/Two time HOY/4 time Eclipse Award winner.........etc.
His Gr.1 resume is also huge.
He's 7 for 11 in Gr.1's........winning on 6 different courses(that might be his best stat).
He's beaten 19(at least) Gr.1 winning horses in his Gr.1 victories.
In fairness to Chrome,if you add up the amount of Gr.1 wins the 19 horses have accounted for the number bumps up quite a bit.

Moral of the post.....
I'd be surprised if future runnings of the Pegasus have the interest of this Saturday's race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I'm thinking Frank Stronach really got lucky having Arrogate/Chrome make it to this race.
The appeal/talent level of the two main players is major.
Digging a bit more into Arrogate/Chrome:

Arrogate:
3yo Champion/jaw dropping final time in the Travers/highest ranked horse in the world/great company lines in his Gr. 1 races.
He's 2 for 2 in Gr.1's(major Gr.1's),defeating 10 Gr.1 winners (that's the stat that jumps out at you).

Chrome:
Dual Classic winner/Two time HOY/4 time Eclipse Award winner.........etc.
His Gr.1 resume is also huge.
He's 7 for 11 in Gr.1's........winning on 6 different courses(that might be his best stat).
He's beaten 19(at least) Gr.1 winning horses in his Gr.1 victories.
In fairness to Chrome,if you add up the amount of Gr.1 wins the 19 horses have accounted for the number bumps up quite a bit.

Moral of the post.....
I'd be surprised if future runnings of the Pegasus have the interest of this Saturday's race.

Yeah, next year it would take an Arrogate vs another Arrogate like horse to jump up in this crop of three year olds. Unlikely it will happen again.