1/28 (GP): $12MM Pegasus World Cup

[Pants II]

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Pants II

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Current Fixed Odds at Bovada

Horse             Odds
 
Arrogate          1/1  
California Chrome 5/4 
Noble Bird       20/1  
Neolithic        25/1  
Keen Ice         25/1  
Stanford         25/1 
Shaman Ghost     33/1 
Breaking Lucky   33/1  
War Story        66/1   
Eragon           66/1  
Sea Raven       100/1  
Madefromlucky   100/1  
PrayerforRelief 150/1 
Semper Fortis   150/1 
War Envoy       200/1

[cakes44]

Thank you sir.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

In a win pool of $1.5 to $2 million, I'm suspect of how much "fan" money is going to affect the odds, but you could be right.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

I think fan money will be mostly small potatoes. The smart big money will certainly be scared off by the 12 hole.. I see 3:5 and 8:5 myself.. Any big money to be made will be in the horizontals in the improbable upset. They still need to run the race and crazy stuff could happen... Hopefully I can find a decent non favorite or 2 to single on the races leading up to this.