The Derby figure

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Mack

The problem is that this has turned into a food fight with everyone talking past each other. I think there's valid considerations on either side.

Regardless of the fig, the clock says the race was slow and that’s black and white and now etched in the history books.

The question in front of me is how am I going to use the fig, the clock, and all that other information from the day going forward. I’m of the mind that the wind is playing a much bigger role than is being allowed for in the figs. I think the pace actually was strong into that stiff breeze and stronger than the clock indicated.

If it was such a soft pace, why didn’t the speed stick better? If you look at the chart without the fractions, it looks like partial, if not total, pace collapse. So I’m giving most credit to Chrome and Samraat in my hindsight handicapping. Maybe I’m wrong, but I won’t know until I get more races from these guys.

Specifically to Beyer’s point in his article about Chrome’s move at the top of the stretch being an illusion, go watch the blimp view of the race from the long video on DRF. Skip to the 9:00 mark and tell me if that turn of foot is illusory.

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by 3kings

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.

Very fair point.

[tector]

Originally Posted by 3kings

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

I stopped paying attention to his Belmont figure a few years ago. I add points to it in a way that gives me a result that makes sense.

There is no rule that says 6F in "X" time = 10F in "Y" time = 12F in "Z" time.

The purpose of speed figures is not to equate horses from 20 or more years ago with horses today. IMO there's too much subjective figure drift, drug use has changed (legal and illegal), class structures have changed, training styles have changed etc... to do that really well anyway. People disagree on figures for the same day at the same track, let alone 20-30 years ago.

The purpose of figures is to equate horses running at different distances on different tracks from each others NOW. So IMO if the relationships between distances have changed because the horses have changed, then the speed figure charts have to change.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

He should have long ago adjusted his speed charts to reflect racing today, not how it was in 1974.

[Mack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Mack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

It is a natural thing to do, and something I fell into for a bit before stepping back and reassessing things. I'm with you 100% on this.

[Sightseek]

A nice write-up by Timeform on the figure:

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/05/07...figure-review/

[cmorioles]

Also worth a read:

http://tinyurl.com/derbywind

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Mack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

Cool story.

You should ignore Beyer figures...and instead focus on Thoro Graph. The scale suggests the thoroughbred is far superior today.

We Miss Artie is faster than Alysheba and Sunday Silence.

Maybe they're right. Beyer figs weighted by Pars. It sure would be fun to see if Commanding Curve could smoke the greats of the late 80's ... but they'd have to step out of a time machine.

[alysheba4]

sunday silence could have spotted artie a furlong and beat him.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

sunday silence could have spotted artie a furlong and beat him.

Celebrate the present.

Artie was valiantly defeated by 8.25 lengths twice in a week. Once in the Ky Derby, and once in a 5 furlong workout.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Cool story.

You should ignore Beyer figures...and instead focus on Thoro Graph. The scale suggests the thoroughbred is far superior today.

We Miss Artie is faster than Alysheba and Sunday Silence.

Maybe they're right. Beyer figs weighted by Pars. It sure would be fun to see if Commanding Curve could smoke the greats of the late 80's ... but they'd have to step out of a time machine.

You're missing my point. I'm not saying thoroughbreds today are better. I believe quite the opposite in fact, and the evidence is pretty clear. I'm also a believer in Beyer's figs.

I'm just saying I'm tired of hearing about how terrible horses are now compared to then. I've accepted this as a new normal and don't want to keep banging on about the decline of the American Thoroughbred.

The greatness of an athlete is defined by the era they compete in, and not entirely by where they sit in relation to the accomplishments of the past.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Mack

You're missing my point. I'm not saying thoroughbreds today are better. I believe quite the opposite in fact, and the evidence is pretty clear. I'm also a believer in Beyer's figs.

I'm just saying I'm tired of hearing about how terrible horses are now compared to then. I've accepted this as a new normal and don't want to keep banging on about the decline of the American Thoroughbred.

The greatness of an athlete is defined by the era they compete in, and not entirely by where they sit in relation to the accomplishments of the past.

I don't disagree. Untapable has delivered three great performances in a row for a 3yo filly.

Wise Dan and Game on Dude have maintained top class form for over 3 years.

Titans of the Turf are still out there and they always will be