Looking at the pedigrees of recent Derby winners

[Calzone Lord]

The Derby is about as brutal of a race to handicap as you'll see all year...but it's also a great race to analyze after it is over.

Really, the most exciting and anticipatory thing about the Derby -- should be the moment when the pace figures and speed figures are released...allowing you to finally fire up the DVR and watch the replay, which includes the greatest angle of all...the overhead blimp shot!

In a sane world, the Preakness should be the most anticipated race.

The Derby answers all of the many questions you don't know. The Preakness is a test of whether or not you have a good opinion...

And by the Belmont, you're left dealing with more questions. Between the unusual 12 furlong distance, and wondering who has or hasn't been knocked out by the meat-grinder Triple Crown series, it's also a very challenging race to handicap...generally speaking.

[cakes44]

Umm...yeah...SO WHO FITS THIS YEAR?

[Calzone Lord]

Some are easier to categorize than others ... but if I had to make a call on all 20 -- this would be it.

Sprint oriented:

Vicar's In Trouble
Ride On Curlin
Medal Count
Vinceremos
Harry's Holiday


Versatile or distance neutral:

California Chrome
Saamrat
Dance With Fate
Intense Holiday
Taptiure
Ring Weekend
General a Rod
Candy Boy

Route oriented:

Wicked Strong
Danza
Hoppertunity
Wildcat Red
We Miss Arite
Chitu
Uncle Sigh

[cakes44]

I was kinda starting to like medal count and ride on curlin. I'll have to take this into account though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I was kinda starting to like medal count and ride on curlin. I'll have to take this into account though.

Medal Count's dam was a confirmed sprinter, who handled both surfaces. He's also a half sib to a horse who broke it's maiden impressively going 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland for Pletcher. She actually beat Rachel Alexandra in the 6f Debutante at Churchill Downs early on in her 2yo season. She ran a 6 Beyer when they tried to stretch her out.

Obviously, Medal Count gets a huge boost, in stamina, from being sired by Dynaformer, but he's the most glamorous name of any sire in the race.

Dale Romans is a beast on these big days at Churchill. He's pulled off some crazy upsets. A decrepit Court Vision winning the BC Mile off of lousy Dutrow Jr. form. Sassy Image was another who won a big stake despite being my first throwout in the race. Little Mike looked like Lure on the Derby undercard. His record is just great on the biggest days at CD. That's the only thing I respect about Medal Count.

[keithting]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Medal Count's dam was a confirmed sprinter, who handled both surfaces. He's also a half sib to a horse who broke it's maiden impressively going 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland for Pletcher. She actually beat Rachel Alexandra in the 6f Debutante at Churchill Downs early on in her 2yo season. She ran a 6 Beyer when they tried to stretch her out.

Obviously, Medal Count gets a huge boost, in stamina, from being sired by Dynaformer, but he's the most glamorous name of any sire in the race.

Dale Romans is a beast on these big days at Churchill. He's pulled off some crazy upsets. A decrepit Court Vision winning the BC Mile off of lousy Dutrow Jr. form. Sassy Image was another who won a big stake despite being my first throwout in the race. Little Mike looked like Lure on the Derby undercard. His record is just great on the biggest days at CD. That's the only thing I respect about Medal Count.

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

[Indian Charlie]

There is some stamina influence under the second and third dams.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by keithting

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

What trainer thinks there horse wont get the distance?
What makes anyone think Medal Count can even stand up on dirt? He has been on dirt 2x w/ 2 fast paces and he has not run a step. He is a closer getting pace and he cant make up any ground. He should be over 30-1 so I guess its pointless to knock him, but I dont get the spot at all. I think only Maker and Romans would run this horse in the Derby to be honest.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by keithting

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

The last time that Romans so publicly expressed a handicapping opinion:

https://twitter.com/trifectabox/stat...15194172846080

I just disagree with his assessment of Medal Count. I thought Dullahan and Shackleford both had much more appeal coming into the Derby, for him, than Medal Count has.