Looking at the pedigrees of recent Derby winners
 

I did a write-up on this yesterday.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unloc...salvatore.aspx

Incidentally, I love the second comment. It reminds me why my father keeps telling me that I'm making a huge mistake by focusing my writing on pedigree handicapping...and not other aspects of handicapping like trips, pace, figures, trainer analysis, etc.

The commenter points out that California Chrome is sired by a son of Pulpit. That his dam is a grand daughter of Mr. Prospector, and that he's inbred to some VERY nice ones.

Of course, to play that game, Zippy Chippy is sired by a son of the legendary Northern Dancer, who is a full brother to El Gran Senor. Zippy Chippy's dam is a grand daughter of Buckpasser. And, indeed, Zippy Chippy is inbred 3X3 to Buckpasser and 4X4 to Native Dancer.

Yes, if you disregard accounting for the sire, and the up-close tail female-family -- California Chrome and Zippy Chippy both have royal pedigrees! Indeed, virtually every single horse who races at Beulah Park has a similarly royal pedigree by that standard.

Not quite in his exact words, but my father basically thinks that pedigree analysis should be left up to 'the dreamers, the schemers, the charlatans, and people who belong in a padded cell.' (I'm not sure which of those categories Pedigree Ann falls into.) But basically, he's been on my case saying "stick to other subjects, avoid that one!" -- and of course, I won't listen to him.

Anyway, from a handicapping and betting prospective especially, the up close tail-female family is where you want to focus your efforts, when efforts are warranted (usually in maiden races with lightly raced horses)

After researching that part of the pedigree for every Derby winner since Y2K, I've found that the vast majority of recent Derby winners usually have clear distance pedigrees in the up-close tail female family. Here's a Breakdown.

Sprint oriented:
NONE


Versatile or distance neutral:
STREET SENSE
SMARTY JONES
FUNNY CIDE


Route oriented:
ORB
I'LL HAVE ANOTHER
ANIMAL KINGDOM
SUPER SAVER
MINE THAT BIRD
BIG BROWN
WAR EMBLEM
MONARCHOS
FUSAICHI PEGASUS

Tough to categorize:
BARBARO (could easily be classified as route-oriented, as his dams best form and figures came in turf marathons at 11 furlongs. However, she was also effective sprinting)

GIACOMO (his dam, as a racer, was a confirmed sprinter. However, as a broodmare, she produced distance horse after distance horse)


Conclusion: The majority of recent Derby winners had clear-cut distance oriented pedigrees through the up-close tail female family. None of them had clear-cut sprint oriented pedigrees.

The Derby is one race where everyone and their mother's mother focuses on pedigree. It's not that I don't think it's important though. I give it as much focus as a maiden race.

It's interesting that the stamina generally comes from the female side, as everything I read before the Florida Derby suggested that Wildcat Red couldn't get nine furlongs because of his sire.

Yeah, Wildcat Red is loaded with stamina on the bottom. People see a sprint sire and wanted to dismiss at 8.5f and 9f.

But, his dam Racene was a stoutly bred deep closer who once won at ten furlongs. She is sired by Miner's Mark, a horse who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

I agree with your dad in part as to your strengths, but this article was interesting. Just promise us you won't be writing of dapples and flowing tails in the future.

Almost everything I read about Wildcat Red, says he can't win The Derby, almost every handicapper says he is a toss in The Derby, But the fact is from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 mile he is 5 for 7 with 2 seconds , 1 by a neck and the other by a head, To me he is almost undefeated 7 for 7, two losses in a photo. How many horses have won the Hutch, The Fountain of Youth, and The Florida Derby,(I know he lost The Florida Derby by a neck)(If Johny V did not open the rail for Pletcher's horse, Wilcat Red wins by 2) Calzone Lord, I know you know almost everything, of all the horses that won all three, how did they fare in The Derby? And seriously, what do you think of Wildcat Red's chances next Saturday? Thank You

I have an acquaintance who travelled halfway across the country to buy a mare as a broodmare prospect for $1000 because she was a granddaughter of Seattle Slew. Needless to say, it would have been cheaper to just light $1000 and throw it in the street because it would have saved on transport costs.

I like your articles as I don't know much about pedigree handicapping, other than speed on top stamina on bottom allegedly being good for classic distances.

I guess I shouldn't judge my acquaintance too much. The past few Derbies I'd have saved money by, instead of wagering, lighting my money on fire and throwing it in the street because I'd have saved on subway fare to Aqueduct.

The Derby is about as brutal of a race to handicap as you'll see all year...but it's also a great race to analyze after it is over.

Really, the most exciting and anticipatory thing about the Derby -- should be the moment when the pace figures and speed figures are released...allowing you to finally fire up the DVR and watch the replay, which includes the greatest angle of all...the overhead blimp shot!

In a sane world, the Preakness should be the most anticipated race.

The Derby answers all of the many questions you don't know. The Preakness is a test of whether or not you have a good opinion...

And by the Belmont, you're left dealing with more questions. Between the unusual 12 furlong distance, and wondering who has or hasn't been knocked out by the meat-grinder Triple Crown series, it's also a very challenging race to handicap...generally speaking.

Umm...yeah...SO WHO FITS THIS YEAR?

Some are easier to categorize than others ... but if I had to make a call on all 20 -- this would be it.

Sprint oriented:

Vicar's In Trouble
Ride On Curlin
Medal Count
Vinceremos
Harry's Holiday


Versatile or distance neutral:

California Chrome
Saamrat
Dance With Fate
Intense Holiday
Taptiure
Ring Weekend
General a Rod
Candy Boy

Route oriented:

Wicked Strong
Danza
Hoppertunity
Wildcat Red
We Miss Arite
Chitu
Uncle Sigh

I was kinda starting to like medal count and ride on curlin. I'll have to take this into account though.

Medal Count's dam was a confirmed sprinter, who handled both surfaces. He's also a half sib to a horse who broke it's maiden impressively going 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland for Pletcher. She actually beat Rachel Alexandra in the 6f Debutante at Churchill Downs early on in her 2yo season. She ran a 6 Beyer when they tried to stretch her out.

Obviously, Medal Count gets a huge boost, in stamina, from being sired by Dynaformer, but he's the most glamorous name of any sire in the race.

Dale Romans is a beast on these big days at Churchill. He's pulled off some crazy upsets. A decrepit Court Vision winning the BC Mile off of lousy Dutrow Jr. form. Sassy Image was another who won a big stake despite being my first throwout in the race. Little Mike looked like Lure on the Derby undercard. His record is just great on the biggest days at CD. That's the only thing I respect about Medal Count.

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

There is some stamina influence under the second and third dams.

So a son of Dynaformer has a Sprint based pedigree and a son of Henny Hughes has a route based pedigree... Gotcha! :zz:

What trainer thinks there horse wont get the distance?
What makes anyone think Medal Count can even stand up on dirt? He has been on dirt 2x w/ 2 fast paces and he has not run a step. He is a closer getting pace and he cant make up any ground. He should be over 30-1 so I guess its pointless to knock him, but I dont get the spot at all. I think only Maker and Romans would run this horse in the Derby to be honest.

And the best damside pedigree for distance might belong to a NY bred son of Indian Charlie.

A horse who ran much better then it looks on paper last out and a horse who has shown he can handle some adversity.

I'm a firm believer of Wildcat Red but not digging the way he's been galloping at Churchill so far. He'll be all over my tickets come Sunday though.

The last time that Romans so publicly expressed a handicapping opinion:

https://twitter.com/trifectabox/stat...15194172846080

I just disagree with his assessment of Medal Count. I thought Dullahan and Shackleford both had much more appeal coming into the Derby, for him, than Medal Count has.

Strictly in terms of the female side of the pedigree, yes.

The dam of Chitu is A. P. Indy on top, and high class turf routers on bottom. She only raced once, winning her debut at 10 furlongs in England for Godolphin. Even in England, it's not common to see horses asked to debut at 10f.

The dam of Medal Count is a confirmed sprinter, who was very good in turf sprints. Medal Count is a half to a horse who dominated a 4.5 furlong baby race at Keeneland for Pletcher and couldn't stay a lick.

Obviously though, Medal Count will get a big stamina boost from Dynaformer. But look at his dirt races, he fades in them.

I'll be looking for other Dale Romans horses to bet this upcoming weekend. Medal Count does absolutely nothing for me.