Looking at the pedigrees of recent Derby winners

[keithting]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Medal Count's dam was a confirmed sprinter, who handled both surfaces. He's also a half sib to a horse who broke it's maiden impressively going 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland for Pletcher. She actually beat Rachel Alexandra in the 6f Debutante at Churchill Downs early on in her 2yo season. She ran a 6 Beyer when they tried to stretch her out.

Obviously, Medal Count gets a huge boost, in stamina, from being sired by Dynaformer, but he's the most glamorous name of any sire in the race.

Dale Romans is a beast on these big days at Churchill. He's pulled off some crazy upsets. A decrepit Court Vision winning the BC Mile off of lousy Dutrow Jr. form. Sassy Image was another who won a big stake despite being my first throwout in the race. Little Mike looked like Lure on the Derby undercard. His record is just great on the biggest days at CD. That's the only thing I respect about Medal Count.

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

[Indian Charlie]

There is some stamina influence under the second and third dams.

[VOL JACK]

So a son of Dynaformer has a Sprint based pedigree and a son of Henny Hughes has a route based pedigree... Gotcha!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

So a son of Dynaformer has a Sprint based pedigree and a son of Henny Hughes has a route based pedigree... Gotcha!

And the best damside pedigree for distance might belong to a NY bred son of Indian Charlie.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

And the best damside pedigree for distance might belong to a NY bred son of Indian Charlie.

A horse who ran much better then it looks on paper last out and a horse who has shown he can handle some adversity.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

So a son of Dynaformer has a Sprint based pedigree and a son of Henny Hughes has a route based pedigree... Gotcha!

Strictly in terms of the female side of the pedigree, yes.

The dam of Chitu is A. P. Indy on top, and high class turf routers on bottom. She only raced once, winning her debut at 10 furlongs in England for Godolphin. Even in England, it's not common to see horses asked to debut at 10f.

The dam of Medal Count is a confirmed sprinter, who was very good in turf sprints. Medal Count is a half to a horse who dominated a 4.5 furlong baby race at Keeneland for Pletcher and couldn't stay a lick.

Obviously though, Medal Count will get a big stamina boost from Dynaformer. But look at his dirt races, he fades in them.

I'll be looking for other Dale Romans horses to bet this upcoming weekend. Medal Count does absolutely nothing for me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by keithting

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

What trainer thinks there horse wont get the distance?
What makes anyone think Medal Count can even stand up on dirt? He has been on dirt 2x w/ 2 fast paces and he has not run a step. He is a closer getting pace and he cant make up any ground. He should be over 30-1 so I guess its pointless to knock him, but I dont get the spot at all. I think only Maker and Romans would run this horse in the Derby to be honest.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by keithting

Appreciate the fine analysis, but Dale said that the Medal Count will get the distance. That's good enough for me...

The last time that Romans so publicly expressed a handicapping opinion:

https://twitter.com/trifectabox/stat...15194172846080

I just disagree with his assessment of Medal Count. I thought Dullahan and Shackleford both had much more appeal coming into the Derby, for him, than Medal Count has.