BC '13 NOTEBOOK: Juvenile; Juvy Fillies; Juvy Turf; Juvy Filly Turf

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

[keithting]

I believe that the Breeders Cup is like the "Academy Awards" - - that is, just getting a horse there confirms a fine training effort on the part of the conditioner....I don't put much emphasis on the trainer's win or ITM % for horses in the BC

Based on this discussion, you guys have set my wager for the Juvy Fillies Turf - I'm boxing Clenor (IRE) and My Conquestadory in the exacta....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

[RockHardTen1985]

I'm not that familiar with Casse, why the 7yr gap between starts?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

Thank you for the research. When a horse runs poorly it doesn't always mean they bled but that is trotted out as the go to response....I should have been more specific. AS I've said here elsewhere, his horses run well at Keeneland and Woodbine. He is simply a different trainer elsewhere for whatever reason including turf races. This is not a shot at his operation this is simply what someone who bets should take into account. The 10-1 region can be considered a shortish price in the BC, by the way, when you have fields as big as they have been. The last few Cups have been at SA and I have been unimpressed with how Casse's horses have run. Not to mention Delegation was a suck up 3rd in that race b/c the jock trip on Gaines horse was an abortion....He will have an even money favorite in whatever race he goes with My Conques....time to put up.

[randallscott35]

I hate no resolution so I will give you an offer you can't refuse Steve. I don't care what race she goes in or who her competition is. I will give you a minimum of 2-1 on My Conques to win for a 100 bucks. She goes off higher, you get the track odds. She goes off lower, which is likely, you still get 2-1. These are friend prices. Deal or no deal.

[outofthebox]

I was impressed with Strong Mandate at Saratoga. Was not to happy with his performance in the Champagne. I know he broke on top and the rider reached up and rated him out of the race. But after watching the replay this colt did not pick up the bit when the real race started, and actually drifted out badly through the stretch. Read that Lukas is changing to Rosario for the BC, understandably. Going to have to see how he breezes over the SA surface before i make up my mind about using him in the Juvy..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I hate no resolution so I will give you an offer you can't refuse Steve. I don't care what race she goes in or who her competition is. I will give you a minimum of 2-1 on My Conques to win for a 100 bucks. She goes off higher, you get the track odds. She goes off lower, which is likely, you still get 2-1. These are friend prices. Deal or no deal.

I couldn't care less about My Conquistadory. My response was to your flippant and erroneous assessment of Casse.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I couldn't care less about My Conquistadory. My response was to your flippant and erroneous assessment of Casse.

I supplemented my assessment of Casse for you, ie, that his horses run at some tracks and not others...see the Pacific Classic this year as an example.

I think it is very difficult to not be personally attached to some of the trainers when you have them on the radio all the time. I understand that....It is ok for me or anyone else to have an opinion about a trainer's runners without it being flippant. Fact is, he's been dead money the last few years with runners at SA....and he has surely had 2 yr old talent to compete....I wish you had taken the bet. I needed a new pair of shoes.

[Round Pen]

I guess Churchill Downs does not Count over the Last 3 Spring meets we are winning at a 24% Clip 18 wins out of 76 Starts. Which includes a Grade 1.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I supplemented my assessment of Casse for you, ie, that his horses run at some tracks and not others...see the Pacific Classic this year as an example.

I think it is very difficult to not be personally attached to some of the trainers when you have them on the radio all the time. I understand that....It is ok for me or anyone else to have an opinion about a trainer's runners without it being flippant. Fact is, he's been dead money the last few years with runners at SA....and he has surely had 2 yr old talent to compete....I wish you had taken the bet. I needed a new pair of shoes.

Whether or not Steve is friends with Mark Casse doesn't change that he used facts to completely refute your claims, which you cannot, and did not, back up with facts. As someone who spends an awful lot of time looking up trainer statistics, and trying to decide which ones are worth offering to the public, I can tell you that you need to be careful with them. The first thing I often look at is the odds of the horses in the sample. Just as you don't want a sample skewed by one long priced winner, you don't want a poor statistic where the vast majority were longshots.

You don't want to bet Casse horses in the BC, fine, and personally I think My Conquestadory has the look of one of the more overrated horses I have seen recently, but none of that changes that Steve gave FACTS...you did not. At least have the decency to say thanks, and not take some personal shot at him.

[billr21]

Steve, I didn't see Kendall's boy in your juvy list. Thought his run behind Havana was a good one. Broke maiden at Churchill and, I believe, didn't like poly and rain in the breeders futurity.

[Kasept]

GARY YOUNG'S CLOCKER J-JF-JT-JFT NOTES:


J-DANCE WITH FATE (10/19) 6 furlongs in 1.12.4: Nice looking horse, good moving horse, but distance limitations make me feel he’s a 1-turn horse. I don’t want him at a 1-1/16 miles but this was a good work.


J-NEW YEAR’S DAY 5 furlongs in 59.1, splits of 24.1, 35.3, and a gallop out in 1:12.4: Had a small boo-boo and didn’t run in Frontrunner. Worked good, broke in front of older workmate. Worked good on a fast track. I could see him running okay on Breeders’ Cup Day. Don’t like the fact he missed his last audition but he’s not a bad horse.


JF-SECRET COMPASS (10/21) 5 furlongs in 1.00.3, splits of 37.1 and a gallop out in 1.13.3: In company with Miss Personality. After her last prep, I thought Secret Compass might be one of the few local horses who might make some noise in the 2-year-old races.


JF-SHE’S A TIGER (10/20) 6 furlongs in 1.10.4, splits in 45.2: There are fast works you love, fast ones you like and fast works you can’t wait to bet against. This is one you can’t wait to bet against. She threw Stevens into the backseat at the pole and then just finished very average.


JF-FASCINATING (10/21) 5 furlongs in 1.00.1, splits of 36.3, and a gallop out in 1.14.00: Worked with maiden Streaming, started 2 behind and stayed 2 behind. I’ve been on this filly all along. She was disappointing in her last prep to me, but she can run.


JFT-CLENOR (10/18) 4 furlongs in 47.1, splits of 23.4: Bejarano up, looked good, not overly imposing filly, but nothing to knock.


JT-DIAMOND BACHELOR (10/17) 5 furlongs in 59.2, splits in 34.2: Started 7L behind sacrificial lamb and blew past him; he was pulling more than you’d like to see. Has been on the bit, and this pulling stuff has me very concerned. Fast early/slow late.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by billr21

Steve, I didn't see Kendall's boy in your juvy list. Thought his run behind Havana was a good one. Broke maiden at Churchill and, I believe, didn't like poly and rain in the breeders futurity.

Bill,

He is not included as a contender on BC's list and I can't see how they go here after that Futurity, but I'll check with Amoss later this morning..