BC '13 NOTEBOOK: Juvenile; Juvy Fillies; Juvy Turf; Juvy Filly Turf

[randallscott35]

I hate no resolution so I will give you an offer you can't refuse Steve. I don't care what race she goes in or who her competition is. I will give you a minimum of 2-1 on My Conques to win for a 100 bucks. She goes off higher, you get the track odds. She goes off lower, which is likely, you still get 2-1. These are friend prices. Deal or no deal.

[outofthebox]

I was impressed with Strong Mandate at Saratoga. Was not to happy with his performance in the Champagne. I know he broke on top and the rider reached up and rated him out of the race. But after watching the replay this colt did not pick up the bit when the real race started, and actually drifted out badly through the stretch. Read that Lukas is changing to Rosario for the BC, understandably. Going to have to see how he breezes over the SA surface before i make up my mind about using him in the Juvy..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I hate no resolution so I will give you an offer you can't refuse Steve. I don't care what race she goes in or who her competition is. I will give you a minimum of 2-1 on My Conques to win for a 100 bucks. She goes off higher, you get the track odds. She goes off lower, which is likely, you still get 2-1. These are friend prices. Deal or no deal.

I couldn't care less about My Conquistadory. My response was to your flippant and erroneous assessment of Casse.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I couldn't care less about My Conquistadory. My response was to your flippant and erroneous assessment of Casse.

I supplemented my assessment of Casse for you, ie, that his horses run at some tracks and not others...see the Pacific Classic this year as an example.

I think it is very difficult to not be personally attached to some of the trainers when you have them on the radio all the time. I understand that....It is ok for me or anyone else to have an opinion about a trainer's runners without it being flippant. Fact is, he's been dead money the last few years with runners at SA....and he has surely had 2 yr old talent to compete....I wish you had taken the bet. I needed a new pair of shoes.

[Round Pen]

I guess Churchill Downs does not Count over the Last 3 Spring meets we are winning at a 24% Clip 18 wins out of 76 Starts. Which includes a Grade 1.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

I guess Churchill Downs does not Count over the Last 3 Spring meets we are winning at a 24% Clip 18 wins out of 76 Starts. Which includes a Grade 1.

Yes, one of the ones....though less so on the dirt.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I supplemented my assessment of Casse for you, ie, that his horses run at some tracks and not others...see the Pacific Classic this year as an example.

I think it is very difficult to not be personally attached to some of the trainers when you have them on the radio all the time. I understand that....It is ok for me or anyone else to have an opinion about a trainer's runners without it being flippant. Fact is, he's been dead money the last few years with runners at SA....and he has surely had 2 yr old talent to compete....I wish you had taken the bet. I needed a new pair of shoes.

Whether or not Steve is friends with Mark Casse doesn't change that he used facts to completely refute your claims, which you cannot, and did not, back up with facts. As someone who spends an awful lot of time looking up trainer statistics, and trying to decide which ones are worth offering to the public, I can tell you that you need to be careful with them. The first thing I often look at is the odds of the horses in the sample. Just as you don't want a sample skewed by one long priced winner, you don't want a poor statistic where the vast majority were longshots.

You don't want to bet Casse horses in the BC, fine, and personally I think My Conquestadory has the look of one of the more overrated horses I have seen recently, but none of that changes that Steve gave FACTS...you did not. At least have the decency to say thanks, and not take some personal shot at him.

[randallscott35]

What personal shot? I said thank you for the research....Odds in BC races are all over the place, that proves little as to a horses chances. Look at what Romans wins with and doesn't in the BC....The last few years at SA, Casse's horses have stunk and he had highly ranked 2 yr olds.

[randallscott35]

By the way, when I used facts to dispute your rebate claims last week, I missed where you had the decency to admit you were wrong?

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

By the way, when I used facts to dispute your rebate claims last week, I missed where you had the decency to admit you were wrong?

Does any know what Casse's record is at Santa Anita overall non breeders cup? If I recall correctly when I lived out there he would come down to the winter meet with Husbands or Ramsammy and did not do very well.

Randall better watch out you don't want to be called stupid by BTW!!

[billr21]

Steve, I didn't see Kendall's boy in your juvy list. Thought his run behind Havana was a good one. Broke maiden at Churchill and, I believe, didn't like poly and rain in the breeders futurity.

[Kasept]

GARY YOUNG'S CLOCKER J-JF-JT-JFT NOTES:


J-DANCE WITH FATE (10/19) 6 furlongs in 1.12.4: Nice looking horse, good moving horse, but distance limitations make me feel he’s a 1-turn horse. I don’t want him at a 1-1/16 miles but this was a good work.


J-NEW YEAR’S DAY 5 furlongs in 59.1, splits of 24.1, 35.3, and a gallop out in 1:12.4: Had a small boo-boo and didn’t run in Frontrunner. Worked good, broke in front of older workmate. Worked good on a fast track. I could see him running okay on Breeders’ Cup Day. Don’t like the fact he missed his last audition but he’s not a bad horse.


JF-SECRET COMPASS (10/21) 5 furlongs in 1.00.3, splits of 37.1 and a gallop out in 1.13.3: In company with Miss Personality. After her last prep, I thought Secret Compass might be one of the few local horses who might make some noise in the 2-year-old races.


JF-SHE’S A TIGER (10/20) 6 furlongs in 1.10.4, splits in 45.2: There are fast works you love, fast ones you like and fast works you can’t wait to bet against. This is one you can’t wait to bet against. She threw Stevens into the backseat at the pole and then just finished very average.


JF-FASCINATING (10/21) 5 furlongs in 1.00.1, splits of 36.3, and a gallop out in 1.14.00: Worked with maiden Streaming, started 2 behind and stayed 2 behind. I’ve been on this filly all along. She was disappointing in her last prep to me, but she can run.


JFT-CLENOR (10/18) 4 furlongs in 47.1, splits of 23.4: Bejarano up, looked good, not overly imposing filly, but nothing to knock.


JT-DIAMOND BACHELOR (10/17) 5 furlongs in 59.2, splits in 34.2: Started 7L behind sacrificial lamb and blew past him; he was pulling more than you’d like to see. Has been on the bit, and this pulling stuff has me very concerned. Fast early/slow late.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by billr21

Steve, I didn't see Kendall's boy in your juvy list. Thought his run behind Havana was a good one. Broke maiden at Churchill and, I believe, didn't like poly and rain in the breeders futurity.

Bill,

He is not included as a contender on BC's list and I can't see how they go here after that Futurity, but I'll check with Amoss later this morning..