BC '13 NOTEBOOK: Juvenile; Juvy Fillies; Juvy Turf; Juvy Filly Turf

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by keithting

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Grade 1, $1 million, 1 mile turf, 2-year-old fillies

I know that everyone says that My Conquestadory is a "cinch" in the Juvy Fillies Turf, but I luv Clenor (IRE) in this spot....

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't that great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't the great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

Based on Casse's dreadful BC performances, I will be throwing out My Conquestadory in whatever race she runs in. Maybe she is his Squirtle Squirt? I doubt it.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Based on Casse's dreadful BC performances, I will be throwing out My Conquestadory in whatever race she runs in. Maybe she is his Squirtle Squirt? I doubt it.

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

Thank You, I knew most of those but did not realize that about Frankel.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't bother to actually look at the records at all I'm guessing. Mark Casse is 0/14 in the Breeders' Cup and as a point of reference, Christophe Clement is 0/22, Ken McPeek 0/20, John Sadler 0/28. Frankel took 32 starters to get a Cup win. No one has a dreadful Cup record considering the limited number of opportunities, quality of the participants and random nature of the event.

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

[keithting]

I believe that the Breeders Cup is like the "Academy Awards" - - that is, just getting a horse there confirms a fine training effort on the part of the conditioner....I don't put much emphasis on the trainer's win or ITM % for horses in the BC

Based on this discussion, you guys have set my wager for the Juvy Fillies Turf - I'm boxing Clenor (IRE) and My Conquestadory in the exacta....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes you are guessing. Simply not winning is one thing. Having horses that look great on paper and than can't even hit the board is another.

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

[RockHardTen1985]

I'm not that familiar with Casse, why the 7yr gap between starts?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn't look it his record, you just flippantly snarled at Casse and his operation.

So let's see who "looked great on paper and couldn't hit the board"?

End Sweep in '94 Sprint at 44-1?
Jealous Forum in '01 J-Filly at 77-1?
Higher World in '04 J-Filly at 61-1?
Skip Code in '06 Juvenile at 61-1?
Clearly Foxy in '07 J-Filly at 17-1?
Sealy Hill in '08 F&M Turf at 49-1 (2nd, beaten less than a length)
Skipadate in '08 J-Turf at 9-1? (11th as 6th choice)
Delightful Mary in '10 J-Filly at 11-1? (3rd as 6th choice)
Prospective in '11 Juvenile at 41-1?
Northern Passion in '11 J-Filly at 11-1? (7th as 4th choice)
Spring Venture in '12 J-Filly at 7-2? (Bled)
Spring in the Air in '12 J-Filly Turf at 6-1? (5th as 5th choice)
Delegation in '12 Dirt Mile at 19-1? (3rd, beaten 4L)
Pool Play in '12 Classic at 39-1? (8th as 11th choice)

Who was supposed to hit the board among the 7 runners 39-1 or higher? (As it happens, Sealy Hill did and nearly won..)

Among those that were 'bet', Spring Venture (7-2) bled, Spring in the Air chased in the merry-go-round race last year, Delightful Mary 'hit the board' while Skipadate and Northern Passion legitimately underperformed.

The reality of Casse's record is that it's pretty typical. If Sealy Hill gets past Forever Together, his record puts him in the top 30 of trainers in the Cup.

You're simply wrong about his performers being 'dreadful'. In fact, you could say on balance, his runners have over-performed based on their prices in the Cup.

Thank you for the research. When a horse runs poorly it doesn't always mean they bled but that is trotted out as the go to response....I should have been more specific. AS I've said here elsewhere, his horses run well at Keeneland and Woodbine. He is simply a different trainer elsewhere for whatever reason including turf races. This is not a shot at his operation this is simply what someone who bets should take into account. The 10-1 region can be considered a shortish price in the BC, by the way, when you have fields as big as they have been. The last few Cups have been at SA and I have been unimpressed with how Casse's horses have run. Not to mention Delegation was a suck up 3rd in that race b/c the jock trip on Gaines horse was an abortion....He will have an even money favorite in whatever race he goes with My Conques....time to put up.

[randallscott35]

I hate no resolution so I will give you an offer you can't refuse Steve. I don't care what race she goes in or who her competition is. I will give you a minimum of 2-1 on My Conques to win for a 100 bucks. She goes off higher, you get the track odds. She goes off lower, which is likely, you still get 2-1. These are friend prices. Deal or no deal.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I certainly don't think My Conquestadory is a cinch. She is going to be overbet, and that Woodbine win wasn't that great considering the lack of quality in the field. The Keeneland race also seemed to come back slow.

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

Steve, Matador is being entered today for Sundays Cup and Saucer at Woodbine. I think he has a big shot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hard to know much about the Summer field until Go Bro, Matador and Dig Alittle Deeper run back out of it, no? But note that Tropic of Artie -- 5th behind her in the Summer as a MDN -- just got beat a zot last week at KEE by Mygalsal who in turn had been beaten in his previous start by next out Bourbon winner Poker Player.

Wasn't the Bourbon run on synth and not turf?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wasn't the Bourbon run on synth and not turf?

Yes..

[Alan07]

My Conquestadory confirmed for JF Turf, per Caton Bredar on HRTV this morning.