How Selfish Can Omama Be

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Riot

Swing states are states that are not "safe" for a candidate. Illinois is obviously "safe Obama" and Texas is "safe Romney".

Florida has had overwhelming (greater than 2008 numbers) early turnout, nearly all Democratic. Florida is in "likely Obama" column.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com page also has excellent, accurate analysis of swing states. www.fivethirtyeight.com

Originally Posted by Riot

Plus, now Florida is trending solidly Obama based upon actual early voting results with massive Democratic turnout greater than 2008. Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%, which banks a great lead for him.

Originally Posted by Riot

I suggest you read the article accompanying the polling on the site I listed, so you understand polling.

Obama is at about 80% right now to win.

Originally Posted by Riot

I didn't crown Obama anything - the professional pollsters crowned him.

In Florida, Dems currently hold the advantage in early voting, 43% to 41%.

Originally Posted by Riot

For Rude: click and learn. Bumbleballs

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Originally Posted by Riot

Are you drunk?

That is not a HuffPo blog. The web address has the edu. suffix.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html Try again to use the clicky key.

BTW - you might go back and look at the Rasmussen polling information you posted - it gives Obama 332 to Romney 206 vote Obama electoral win.

Originally Posted by Riot

:

And 538/Nate Silver is extremely well-respected and accurate in polling, even if you've never heard of him and want to dismiss him out of hand (which is laughable)

hmmmm

[Riot]

I give up.

Let's start again: I say Obama is going to easily win the electoral college, and the popular vote. And I say Obama will win Florida.

I use your Rasmussen polling info for the Florida win. And 538 and TPM aggegators.
And the early voting data on turnout and party.

And yes, I use 538, TPM, and even your Rasmussen polling company, for the national win.