How Selfish Can Omama Be

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Yes I'm 5. I excelled in cut/paste in preschool.

How do you explain that you claimed FL as "Likely Obama" when your own poll disputes this and you cite .05% of the state (all in a solid blue county) as your basis?

For the fourth time - please, read slowly and carefully:

I said that Obama will win Florida. Why? The trending in Florida is Romney falling, Obama rising. Multiple polls. I even used your Rasmussen poll that shows this trend is true over the past five days (which I linked to).

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Riot

For the fourth time - please, read slowly and carefully:

I said that Obama will win Florida. Why? The trending in Florida is Romney falling, Obama rising. I even used your Rasmussen poll that shows this trend is true over the past five days (which I linked to).

No, you didn't. You said that Obama was most likely based on the 538 or whatever the NYT guy said. I disputed that by presenting the 538 data.

Then you brought out the gmu.edu site which only represented 50,000 votes in in the most left county in the state.

And you got called out.

And you can't respond. You misrepresented yourself. I understand. passion can run wild at times. I don't hold it against you.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

No, you didn't. You said that Obama was most likely based on the 538 or whatever the NYT guy said. I disputed that by presenting the 538 data.

Trends cover the data over time - not one day. Yes, all polls have Obama trending up in Florida 538 is a "poll of polls", an aggregator. TPM is an aggregator. You linked Rasmussen, one of the polls the aggregators use.

All polls show Obama trending up in Florida, and Romney down. Yes - even though in a snapshot of today Romney may be ahead by a half a point to a point.

Then you brought out the gmu.edu site which only represented 50,000 votes in in the most left county in the state.

And you got called out.

Uh, no. You falsely accused me of somehow secretly getting my hands on voters data (I never said that). I then told you that you clearly do not know how the results data on early voting is made available to the public, and linked to the site so you can learn.

You refused to even move down to the applicable part of the site, instead choosing to link to various other information media links at the top and railing on about Huffington Post.

Yeah - big difference in understanding about polls and websites between you and I.

Now - you say Romney will win Florida. Do you have anything other than a one-day snapshot poll of him being barely ahead to support your contention? Because the trends all have Obama overcoming him and winning the state.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Riot

You refused to even move down to the applicable part of the site, instead choosing to link to various other information media links at the top and railing on about Huffington Post.

Yeah - big difference in understanding about polls and websites between you and I.

Now - you say Romney will win Florida. Do you have anything other than a one-day snapshot poll of him being barely ahead to support your contention? Because the trends are have Obama overcoming him and winning the state.

Again, not true. Your NYT poll disguised as some "patriarch of election virtue" proved your assertions false.

I then waded through the propaganda link you provided (again disputing you ridiculous claim above) to expose the fact that your analysis was based on early results of only .05% of the population of the state, in ONE county, that has been historically left leaning.


You, in turn, called me a liar, drunk, idiot etc. for pointing that fact out.

Hysterically funny, since anyone who actually knows me is laughing their guts out at this.

Hope you feel better about yourself, if that's what gets you through the day.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Again, not true. Your NYT poll disguised as some "patriarch of election virtue" proved your assertions false.

How? You are now confusing two different things. Yes, 538 has always had Obama above 270 votes (I gave the link, you never looked at it).

Yes, 538 aggregate trending has Obama moving up in Florida, Romney down. As does TPM. As does your Rasmussen poll. As does several other polls.

BTW, your Rasmussen poll you posted gives Obama a massive victory - even bigger than 538.

And 538/Nate Silver is extremely well-respected and accurate in polling, even if you've never heard of him and want to dismiss him out of hand (which is laughable)

Dude - you just posted an opinion article by Karl Rove. Talk about "not objective" ! LOL !

I then waded through the propaganda link you provided (again disputing you ridiculous claim above) to expose the fact that your analysis was based on early results of only .05% of the population of the state that has been historically left leaning.

Dude - you are just not following along You are confusing electoral votes nationally with Florida win.

You, in turn, called me a liar, drunk, idiot etc. for pointing that fact out.

No, I asked if you were drunk because you are clearly not following the conversation. And you called me liar - you might look back at your posts.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Riot

Swing states are states that are not "safe" for a candidate. Illinois is obviously "safe Obama" and Texas is "safe Romney".

Florida has had overwhelming (greater than 2008 numbers) early turnout, nearly all Democratic. Florida is in "likely Obama" column.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com page also has excellent, accurate analysis of swing states. www.fivethirtyeight.com

Originally Posted by Riot

Plus, now Florida is trending solidly Obama based upon actual early voting results with massive Democratic turnout greater than 2008. Obama already is leading the early voting by 60%, which banks a great lead for him.

Originally Posted by Riot

I suggest you read the article accompanying the polling on the site I listed, so you understand polling.

Obama is at about 80% right now to win.

Originally Posted by Riot

I didn't crown Obama anything - the professional pollsters crowned him.

In Florida, Dems currently hold the advantage in early voting, 43% to 41%.

Originally Posted by Riot

For Rude: click and learn. Bumbleballs

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Originally Posted by Riot

Are you drunk?

That is not a HuffPo blog. The web address has the edu. suffix.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html Try again to use the clicky key.

BTW - you might go back and look at the Rasmussen polling information you posted - it gives Obama 332 to Romney 206 vote Obama electoral win.

Originally Posted by Riot

:

And 538/Nate Silver is extremely well-respected and accurate in polling, even if you've never heard of him and want to dismiss him out of hand (which is laughable)

hmmmm

[Riot]

I give up.

Let's start again: I say Obama is going to easily win the electoral college, and the popular vote. And I say Obama will win Florida.

I use your Rasmussen polling info for the Florida win. And 538 and TPM aggegators.
And the early voting data on turnout and party.

And yes, I use 538, TPM, and even your Rasmussen polling company, for the national win.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Here is a different analysis of the data:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ctions_opinion

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnist...-the-landslide