How Selfish Can Omama Be

Rudeboyelvis · #1 10-31-2012, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Swing states are states that are not "safe" for a candidate. Illinois is obviously "safe Obama" and Texas is "safe Romney".

There are 10 swing states, now only eight. The eight left, that will determine the election, are OH, NH, FL, PA, NC, IA, NV, CO. All those states are now leaning Obama in aggregate polling except NC, which should be pretty sure for Romney.

Obama started with more "safe Obama" states than Romney had "safe Romney" states. Obama was always over 270 electoral votes. Romney was always in the position of having to win votes to get to 270, and still is.

Obama only had to win 1 or 2 swing states to assure victory. Romney always had to win virtually all of them to win.

Florida has had overwhelming (greater than 2008 numbers) early turnout, nearly all Democratic.

TPM.com has a good polling page, where they aggregate the polls, and an excellent reputation for accuracy. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/ click on "polls" in the header

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com page also has excellent, accurate analysis of swing states. www.fivethirtyeight.com

You've been touting this as though it was a fact for some time. It isn't true. I don't know what you have to gain by continuing to spout this. Furthermore, to echo Anti's point, any state that is +/- 2 or less points is hardly "likely" or "leaning" either direction.

Obama has always had no more than 259 EC votes. When he lost FL, he has been hovering around 235. He's currently 237.

This is the fact:

Quote:

Florida is in "likely Obama" column.

Oh, I see. It's your delusions.

Riot · #2 10-31-2012, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You've been touting this as though it was a fact for some time. It isn't true. I don't know what you have to gain by continuing to spout this

Nothing. It's just the truth. I'm quoting Nate Silver's long-term electoral college voting chart, which aggregates multiple national polls and state polls (the big guys and the little guys), which never shows Obama below 270 electoral votes.

You can see it, here: www.fivethirtyeight.com

See that top graph? Electoral college vote since June? See the black line down the middle at 270 votes? Obama always above that line, Romney always below that line.

You, on the other hand, appear to be quoting only one poll, not an aggregate of all of them.

What poll are you quoting? You didn't reference who the poll was from, or the date it was taken.

Rudeboyelvis · #3 10-31-2012, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Nothing. It's just the truth. I'm quoting Nate Silver's long-term electoral college voting chart, which aggregates multiple national polls and state polls, which never shows Obama below 270 electoral votes.

You can see it, here: www.fivethirtyeight.com

You, on the other hand, appear to be quoting only one poll, not an aggregate of all of them.

What poll are you quoting? You didn't reference who the poll was from, or the date it was taken.

Oh I see, you post the two most left leaning polls in existence as judge others. Got it. You are screwed and you know it.

Riot · #4 10-31-2012, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Oh I see, you post the two most left leaning polls in existence as judge others. Got it. You are screwed and you know it.

Get a grip on reality. Those are not "left leaning polls", they are aggregators. They don't do polling.

Duh.

If you don't understand what "aggregator" means, you'd probably be best to stop commenting and looking silly.

By the way - who did the poll you posted, and what date was it taken? You haven't fessed up yet.

I have put my money where my mouth was, Rude. Obama wins, easily, via electoral vote. Want to bet on it, like Pants and Hooves have?

Rudeboyelvis · #5 10-31-2012, 07:58 PM

6 more days. Attack people you don't agree with. Classy.

Riot · #6 10-31-2012, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

6 more days. Attack people you don't agree with. Classy.

Nobody is "attacking" anybody. Get a grip. You posted one poll. I posted the most reliable aggregator of polls in the business.

Who is your pollster, and what day was it taken? Likely voters, or registered voters? Third time I've asked you - are you simply refusing to answer?

PS - you might look at the colors on the chart you posted - see all the "tossup" states blue? That means they are going Obama. And North Carolina, long thought to go Romney, is even blue via your anonymous pollster

Have you seen the polls released today? Did you look at the 538 site? What is your comment on the aggregation of Obama as being over 270 votes since June? He's gone way up and way down, but always been over 270.

Other than your dismissal of the information as a "left leaning pollster" when the guy doesn't even do any polling.

Rudeboyelvis · #7 10-31-2012, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Nobody is "attacking" anybody. Get a grip. You posted one poll. I posted the most reliable aggregator of polls in the business.

Who is your pollster, and what day was it taken? Likely voters, or registered voters? Third time I've asked you - are you simply refusing to answer?

Have you seen the polls released today? Did you look at the 538 site? What is your comment on the aggregation of Obama as being over 270 votes since June?

Other than "left leaning pollster" when the guy doesn't even do any polling.

Buh Bye

Rudeboyelvis · #8 10-31-2012, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

Nobody is "attacking" anybody. Get a grip. You posted one poll. I posted the most reliable aggregator of polls in the business.

Who is your pollster, and what day was it taken? Likely voters, or registered voters? Third time I've asked you - are you simply refusing to answer?

PS - you might look at the colors on the chart you posted - see all the "tossup" states blue? That means they are going Obama. And North Carolina, long thought to go Romney, is even blue via your anonymous pollster

Have you seen the polls released today? Did you look at the 538 site? What is your comment on the aggregation of Obama as being over 270 votes since June? He's gone way up and way down, but always been over 270.

Other than your dismissal of the information as a "left leaning pollster" when the guy doesn't even do any polling.

Your own poll shows Romney leading in FL, yet you posted that FL is "Likely Obama".... You are the definition of "FRAUD"

hoovesupsideyourhead · #9 10-31-2012, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Oh I see, you post the two most left leaning polls in existence as judge others. Got it. You are screwed and you know it.

thats her m.o..she plays it to the hilt..but in the end she will lose..and probebly take her own life if the light.obama were voted out... then she will blame the storm.and how the election should have been postponed..