I need to listen to ATR more often

[CSC]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I agree 100% that Rail Trip is mediocre. That's why Zenyatta's connections running scared sh!tless from the horse is so mind-numbing.

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

[slotdirt]

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

I'm sure if you were betting, it wouldn't. If you like Rail Trip at 129 and you think he could run as well as when he carried 118, well goodluck to you.

[slotdirt]

Against the field he faced the other day? I have two fists, the contents of which would be emptied on Rail Trip.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So Rail Trip still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by an additional 2-4 points.

[slotdirt]

Off topic, but I had a discussion with a Euro the other day on Goldikova beating Paco Boy. They basically gave her no credit and said she only won because she was getting three pounds. He then went on to tell me that a pound is equal to a length in their universe. Pure poppycock.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Off topic, but I had a discussion with a Euro the other day on Goldikova beating Paco Boy. They basically gave her no credit and said she only won because she was getting three pounds. He then went on to tell me that a pound is equal to a length in their universe. Pure poppycock.

why would a Euro know anything about pounds?

they deal in kg's and stones

[Indian Charlie]

Hey Chucky, did you read Savantore's comments on Best Pal at that Paulick Report site?

If not, I'll quote him here for you to answer the Best Pal vs Zenyatta remark.

Though I'm not really that sure you were being serious thinking Zenyatta would beat BP 90 out of 100 times.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hey Chucky, did you read Savantore's comments on Best Pal at that Paulick Report site?

If not, I'll quote him here for you to answer the Best Pal vs Zenyatta remark.

Though I'm not really that sure you were being serious thinking Zenyatta would beat BP 90 out of 100 times.

Doug was like 8 years old when Best Pal was running. Like i said he was good on about 10 occasions.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Doug was like 8 years old when Best Pal was running. Like i said he was good on about 10 occasions.

Sound argument.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Doug was like 8 years old when Best Pal was running. Like i said he was good on about 10 occasions.

I'm not quite that young.

As I learned much later in life ... Ian Jory fucl<ing sucks as a trainer .. and Best Pal won 4 Graded Stakes (including 2 Grade 1's) as a 2yo for Jory .. and he ran 2nd in Kentucky Derby for Jory as well.

When Best Pal left Jory's barn ... in his very first start he won the Swaps by 4 lengths - Corporate Report was 2nd - and he just missed in the Haskell next out and won the Travers following that. In start #2 for Best Pal after leaving Jory's barn ... he won the Pacific Classic, as a 3yo, in track record time - with a 118 Beyer - defeating quality older horses like Unbridled, Twilight Agenda, Farma Way, and Festin.

Here is Best Pal's 4-year-old season ...



He won the Santa Anita Handicap in blowout fashion with a still to this day record 123 Beyer - despite suffering a quarter crack before the race.

He was supposed to scratch out of the Oaklawn Park Handicap after problems with a foot .. they ran him and he beat a horse coming off of back to back Gr 1 wins and a next out Gr 1 winner.

Best Pal got hurt in the Pimlico Special - missed the rest of the year - and was never the same beast again.... although he did thump handicap champion Bertrando in the Hollywood Gold Cup the following year.

I'm not sure if you agree - but I think it's really stupid to hold the latter part of a past-prime geldings career against him...especially when you're talking about a horse who won a 5 furlong debut race - won 5 stakes races at age 2 - competed in the Classic races - and was still good enough to miss winning the Big Cap at age 7 by just a lip.

How many of precocious heavily raced 2yo's that compete in the Classics - do you see running giant races at age 7 and 8?

Don't say Funny Cide either .. that lone dazzling 97 Beyer win he had as a 7yo came at Finger Lakes for crying out loud.... does his pathetic late form diminish that he was once even money against Empire Maker for a shot at a triple crown?

[NTamm1215]

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

Yes, I read your post. As I said before, I totally disagree with you. If I owned Zenyatta, I would not be wanting to face Rail Trip at Hollywood in a 4 horse field with no pace.

With regard to your other comment, facing females in California is usually not a serious challenge for her although it has been a couple of times.

She won the Classic last year. She appears to be just as good on the dirt as on synthetic. She looks to be as good this year as last year. Why wouldn't she be one of the horses to beat in the Classic again this year?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

She won the Classic last year. She appears to be just as good on the dirt as on synthetic. She looks to be as good this year as last year. Why wouldn't she be one of the horses to beat in the Classic again this year?

Because she will be facing better quality dirt horses on dirt, instead of pretty poor quality turf and dirt horses on synthetic.

And don't say anything dumb like Gio Ponti is a great horse.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Yes, I read your post. As I said before, I totally disagree with you. If I owned Zenyatta, I would not be wanting to face Rail Trip at Hollywood in a 4 horse field with no pace.

With regard to your other comment, facing females in California is usually not a serious challenge for her although it has been a couple of times.

She won the Classic last year. She appears to be just as good on the dirt as on synthetic. She looks to be as good this year as last year. Why wouldn't she be one of the horses to beat in the Classic again this year?

because she'll be facing top dirt horses?
yes, she won at 10f on synthetic. she won two dirt races, both restricted, neither at 10f. she won't be taking on a turfer or a dirt horse on synthetic, but dirt horses on dirt. it's got to make a difference.
now, she'll still be a top choice-but the one to beat? i hope we get to see!

[slotdirt]

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

I think the only chance of Rail Trip and Zenyatta facing each other this year will be in the BC Classic, if they both make it there in one piece.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?