I need to listen to ATR more often - Page 9

cakes44 · #**161** 06-17-2010, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Rail Trip got a dream trip in a Gr.2 carrying 118lbs, I repeat 118lbs in a GRADE 2. Suddenly he is the Quality Road of the west...some of you guys should think about this, I'm not sure if this was the same mindset I heard for Zardana after she beat Rachel or Unrivaled Belle, but talk about annointing a horse? I give you Rail Trip.

I agree 100% that Rail Trip is mediocre. That's why Zenyatta's connections running scared sh!tless from the horse is so mind-numbing.

Gaining Ground · #**162** 06-17-2010, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Open G1 contests with $5 million purses impress me FAR more than restricted crapshoots for very young animals on the first Sat in May.

Seems like some fillies mature quicker and can more easily compete with colts early in their 3-year-old seasons

Usually a different story later in the year or when they turn four

WC's front-running score in the Derby was commendable … but something she never could've duplicated in a race like the BCC.

Somehow I don't think Shirreffs would've been shaking in his boots at the prospect of facing an 8 for19 monster like WC … lol

More to say to the usual nitwits … but gotta run now

on dirt you can be rest assured he would have been worried about winning colors. especially on a wet track.

im not taking away anything from zenyatta. but to dismiss winning colors for only winning the derby shows a total lack of objectivity. she matured earlier than zenyatta did. zenyatta hadn't even started her career by the time winning colors had beaten grade 1 males twice.

slotdirt · #**163** 06-17-2010, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You keep repeating that they won't run her in the Classic, but you got strangely quiet when I accepted your offer of a wager on the subject.

Here's your challenge:

Here's how I responded:

You asked me to name my price. I did. Hello? Is anyone there?

--Dunbar

Sure, send me a PM. We'll figure out the details. I'm confident she won't be running on dirt at all this season.

Rupert Pupkin · #**164** 06-17-2010, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Rail Trip got a dream trip in a Gr.2 carrying 118lbs, I repeat 118lbs in a GRADE 2. Suddenly he is the Quality Road of the west...some of you guys should think about this, I'm not sure if this was the same mindset I heard for Zardana after she beat Rachel or Unrivaled Belle, but talk about annointing a horse? I give you Rail Trip.

That last race was hardly the only good race he's ever run. Did you see his performance in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year? He blew them away. I think even the speed-figure guys were impressed with that one. I think he ran a huge number. Didn't he get a 112 Beyer or something like that?

CSC · #**165** 06-17-2010, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

I agree 100% that Rail Trip is mediocre. That's why Zenyatta's connections running scared sh!tless from the horse is so mind-numbing.

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

slotdirt · #**166** 06-17-2010, 04:41 PM

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

CSC · #**167** 06-17-2010, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I know it's in vogue to say weight is overrated, but weight is overrated.

I'm sure if you were betting, it wouldn't. If you like Rail Trip at 129 and you think he could run as well as when he carried 118, well goodluck to you.

slotdirt · #**168** 06-17-2010, 04:44 PM

Against the field he faced the other day? I have two fists, the contents of which would be emptied on Rail Trip.

Rupert Pupkin · #**169** 06-17-2010, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I think he's good not mediocre, however let's examine how distorted this has really become. Since everyone is so hung up on the beyers of the 2 races...108 and 103.

What if the weights were reversed... Rail Trip carried 129 and Zenyatta carried 118 in their respective races, what would their beyers be then? They wouldn't be on the same page.

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So Rail Trip still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by an additional 2-4 points.

slotdirt · #**170** 06-17-2010, 04:52 PM

Off topic, but I had a discussion with a Euro the other day on Goldikova beating Paco Boy. They basically gave her no credit and said she only won because she was getting three pounds. He then went on to tell me that a pound is equal to a length in their universe. Pure poppycock.

NTamm1215 · #**171** 06-17-2010, 04:53 PM

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

Rupert Pupkin · #**172** 06-17-2010, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

slotdirt · #**173** 06-17-2010, 04:56 PM

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

RockHardTen1985 · #**174** 06-17-2010, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Keep convincing yourselves that Rail Trip is a s.hitbag and unworthy of a challenge by Zenyatta.

NT

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

NTamm1215 · #**175** 06-17-2010, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How much more impressive could he have been in his last few races at Hollywood? I don't know what races you were watching.

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

NTamm1215 · #**176** 06-17-2010, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Hes not a shitbag, but she would likely run him down going 10f. Do you disagree?

If he were to run the race he did in last year's Hol Gold Cup I'm quite confident he'd beat her.

NT

Rupert Pupkin · #**177** 06-17-2010, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Are the odds better that Rail Trip and Zenyatta face each other this year or that Zenyatta runs in the Breeders Cup Classic?

I think the only chance of Rail Trip and Zenyatta facing each other this year will be in the BC Classic, if they both make it there in one piece.

CSC · #**178** 06-17-2010, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not a big numbers guy and I don't have much confidence in the numbers. I trust my eye more than I trust the numbers. But for argument's sake, let's assume that the numbers are correct and the 108 and 103 numbers were correct. How many lengths would 11 pounds cost a horse? I would guess about 1 1/2 lengths. So at equal weights, Rail Trip would have still run faster. If they both caryy 118 pounds, Zenyatta's number moves up 3 points to 106. So he still ran faster. Not only that, he was geared down. He could have easily won by another length or two. That would move his number up by 2-4 points.

Certain horses hit a threashold with weight, for instance for Zenyatta we know she can run well up to 129, for Rail Trip 129 is a question mark, one that hasn't been answered yet. Until they do it no one can be certain how they will handle it. Regardless some say for every length = 1 lbs, this isn't a concise science, there are some Trainer's that look at weight religiously, as Bobby Frankel once did, we know if he didn't like the weight assignments for a race he would have no qualms scratching a horse. I don't think it's an inconsequencial factor that should just be dismissed nor do I think it's an all determining factor. Every situation is unique, I do believe letting Rail Trip carry 118 in a grade 2 was like handing candy to a child, it couldn't have been any sweeter to Ellis I surmise.

Dunbar · #**179** 06-17-2010, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Sure, send me a PM. We'll figure out the details. I'm confident she won't be running on dirt at all this season.

You've got mail.

--Dunbar

Rupert Pupkin · #**180** 06-17-2010, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you even read my prior post where I said her not challenging him is ridiculous?

Seriously, if you are a Zenyatta fan right now and you think that facing females in CA is a serious challenge then how is it even possible she could win the Classic? And that's the race they're shooting for!

NT

Yes, I read your post. As I said before, I totally disagree with you. If I owned Zenyatta, I would not be wanting to face Rail Trip at Hollywood in a 4 horse field with no pace.

With regard to your other comment, facing females in California is usually not a serious challenge for her although it has been a couple of times.

She won the Classic last year. She appears to be just as good on the dirt as on synthetic. She looks to be as good this year as last year. Why wouldn't she be one of the horses to beat in the Classic again this year?