Zenyatta assigned 129 pounds for Vanity

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So St. Trinians is better than Unrivaled Belle because the former beat Life Is Sweet?

It's one thing to say that Zenyatta winning this race with all that weight would be a huge accomplishment, it's quite another to say that St. Trinians is better than Unrivaled Belle.

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why Zenyatta is only giving St. Trinians 9 lbs and why she's carrying the exact same thing she was last year in this race.

NT

What is it about St. Trinians that is so awful in your opinion? When the Apple Blossom was announced earlier this year, some were even saying she was the 3rd most interesting filly if she would have ran in that race. Unrivaled Belle has won one race, the same reaction occured when Zardana beat Rachel. Let's keep that in mind, she may turn out to be a pretty special filly, but at the moment let's reign back the superlatives. St. Trinians has atleast ran some big races in So Cal before her lacklustre Big Cap, I think anyone can observe she is not a filly that is chopped liver caliber coming into The Vanity, even the anti-Zenyatta advocates should recognize this.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

What is it about St. Trinians that is so awful in your opinion? When the Apple Blossom was announced earlier this year, some were even saying she was the 3rd most interesting filly if she would have ran in that race. Unrivaled Belle has won one race, the same reaction occured when Zardana beat Rachel. Let's keep that in mind, she may turn out to be a pretty special filly, but at the moment let's reign back the superlatives. St. Trinians has atleast ran some big races in So Cal before her lacklustre Big Cap, I think anyone can observe she is not a filly that is chopped liver caliber coming into The Vanity, even the anti-Zenyatta advocates should recognize this.

On paper, a case can be made that St. Trinians is the better (when taken into account that she runs on AW and the Vanity is run on AW), after all, Zardana was nearly 5 lengths behind her in the Santa Maria prior to upsetting Rachel Alexandra (though here you would need to ignore surface issues).

Nonetheless, there is no longer any guarantee that St. Trinians is still in that peak form she was in late last year and early this year. Its been 3 months since the Big Cap debacle (she should have been in the Santa Margarita--not the Apple Blossom) and who's to say she's the same horse after getting pummeled?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nonetheless, there is no longer any guarantee that St. Trinians is still in that peak form she was in late last year and early this year. Its been 3 months since the Big Cap debacle (she should have been in the Santa Margarita--not the Apple Blossom) and who's to say she's the same horse after getting pummeled?

With the rate Mitchell is sending out winners, I would form an educated guess she will run back to form. On cushion, I would rate her second to only Zenyatta at the moment in the distaff division. As stated I have a healthy respect for her, I'm not sure what her odds will be, but even if you a fan of Zenyatta, if the spread is enough with the projected small field, any objective bettor would atleast have to entertain the thought she can possibly pull off the upset. Though as is always the case in her career Zenyatta may have a thing to say about that.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

Though as is always the case in her career Zenyatta may have a thing to say about that.

Yes, her career has been characterized by herculean trial.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

What is it about St. Trinians that is so awful in your opinion? When the Apple Blossom was announced earlier this year, some were even saying she was the 3rd most interesting filly if she would have ran in that race. Unrivaled Belle has won one race, the same reaction occured when Zardana beat Rachel. Let's keep that in mind, she may turn out to be a pretty special filly, but at the moment let's reign back the superlatives. St. Trinians has atleast ran some big races in So Cal before her lacklustre Big Cap, I think anyone can observe she is not a filly that is chopped liver caliber coming into The Vanity, even the anti-Zenyatta advocates should recognize this.

Go look at Unrivaled Belle's PPs. Then you'll have your facts straight. Click here: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...0100612-494159

She won the Rampart on Fla Derby day before winning the La Troienne and came into the latter with a record of 5: 4-0-1 on conventional dirt with the only blemish being a 2nd place finish in the Gazelle. I know you're desperate to pound away at any horse who beat Rachel, but Unrivaled Belle was as accomplished coming into the La Troienne, if not more, than St. Trinians is coming into the Vanity.

Where did I say anything about St. Trinians being terrible? All I said was that a horse of Zenyatta's caliber should give ST at least 15 lbs in my opinion. You're talking about a Grade II and listed stakes winner and a 16x winner, BC Classic winner, 2x GI winner in 2010, and CSC Horse of the Year here. Come on, 9 lbs?

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Go look at Unrivaled Belle's PPs. Then you'll have your facts straight. Click here: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...0100612-494159

She won the Rampart on Fla Derby day before winning the La Troienne and came into the latter with a record of 5: 4-0-1 on conventional dirt with the only blemish being a 2nd place finish in the Gazelle. I know you're desperate to pound away at any horse who beat Rachel, but Unrivaled Belle was as accomplished coming into the La Troienne, if not more, than St. Trinians is coming into the Vanity.

Where did I say anything about St. Trinians being terrible? All I said was that a horse of Zenyatta's caliber should give ST at least 15 lbs in my opinion. You're talking about a Grade II and listed stakes winner and a 16x winner, BC Classic winner, 2x GI winner in 2010, and CSC Horse of the Year here. Come on, 9 lbs?

NT

My work may not allow me access to download anything horseracing related, but I do seem to recall Unrivaled Belle losing to Striking Dancer, didn't she? Granted that was on pro-ride. As much as I like Striking Dancer she is not the same horse St. Trinians is.

As for the weight, I think the spread is more important than the actual weight. It is generally accepted by some horseplayeres that 1 lb equals 1 length in the final result, and to me that is substantial when you are giving that amount of weight to a horse of St. Trinians caliber.

In the end it may not matter, Zenyatta will probably run her down anyway, but she can't have a subpar ride from Smith or an off day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

My work may not allow me access to download anything horseracing related, but I do seem to recall Unrivaled Belle losing to Striking Dancer, didn't she? Granted that was on pro-ride. As much as I like Striking Dancer she is not the same horse St. Trinians is.

As for the weight, I think the spread is more important than the actual weight. It is generally accepted by some horseplayeres that 1 lb equals 1 length in the final result, and to me that is substantial when you are giving that amount of weight to a horse of St. Trinians caliber.

In the end it may not matter, Zenyatta will probably run her down anyway, but she can't have a subpar ride from Smith or an off day.

I see, it's all so easy when you let the surface lines completely blur. I mean, who wouldn't take into consideration whether a horse is actually running on their preferred surface? After all, if you do that, how does the 2009 BC Classic field look?

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I see, it's all so easy when you let the surface lines completely blur. I mean, who wouldn't take into consideration whether a horse is actually running on their preferred surface? After all, if you do that, how does the 2009 BC Classic field look?

NT

I've been down that road here, with this 95% Pro-Rachel board. Unless Zenyatta wins on dirt, travels, runs a minimum 115 beyer, beats Quality Road, carries 130 doing so, and runs against the bias. It may, JUST may satisfy her detractors. Though I'm not holding onto that belief. But I guess even I can be surprised sometimes.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

I've been down that road here, with this 95% Pro-Rachel board. Unless Zenyatta wins on dirt, travels, runs a minimum 115 beyer, beats Quality Road, carries 130 doing so, and runs against the bias. It may, JUST may satisfy her detractors. Though I'm not holding onto that belief. But I guess even I can be surprised sometimes.

All I ask is that people comparing horses who have run on synthetics and dirt actually try to understand that many horses prefer one over the other. To diminish the quality of Unrivaled Belle because she lost a race on the Pro-Ride is foolish, especially given her prior dirt accomplishments and those she' accumulated since.

That argument drives me even more crazy than this incessant notion that Zenyatta is better on dirt.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

All I ask is that people comparing horses who have run on synthetics and dirt actually try to understand that many horses prefer one over the other. To diminish the quality of Unrivaled Belle because she lost a race on the Pro-Ride is foolish, especially given her prior dirt accomplishments and those she' accumulated since.

That argument drives me even more crazy than this incessant notion that Zenyatta is better on dirt.

NT

May I add then why is it okay to diminish horses that win on poly? I know some people hate the BC, but if Zenyatta makes it to the BC later this year, we may get to understand her specialness if she can duplicate her races on dirt. If this is the case, I would hope she will receive her derserved recognition for being versatile enough to win regardless of what surface she runs on. To me that is a far better measure of greatness than the limitations of a singular surface.

Originally Posted by CSC

I've been down that road here, with this 95% Pro-Rachel board. Unless Zenyatta wins on dirt, travels, runs a minimum 115 beyer, beats Quality Road, carries 130 doing so, and runs against the bias. It may, JUST may satisfy her detractors. Though I'm not holding onto that belief. But I guess even I can be surprised sometimes.

Oh poor you. Go f.uck yourself.

[Duvalier]

Stay classy