Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not necessarily. I think Willie got the horse into a good spot, not expecting the pace to be quite that fast, then Willie knew that considering the pace and the horse's distance limitations, his best shot was to take the lead in the stretch and see how long he could hold on. It was his only choice, but that still doesn't mean the horse had a particularly easy 10-furlong trip.

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

He was also moved early at KEE and the BC (which he completely SCREWED up). Is your contention that he can't get 8.5F?

[Riot]

Equidaily.com:

KEN McPEEK (Noble’s Promise, fifth): We talked a lot about waiting with this horse and not passing horses until the eighth-pole. Willie (Martinez) said he felt he was cruising, so he let him take the lead at the quarter-pole. We passed the 10 horse (Paddy O’Prado) and then he came back and passed us, so maybe we just need to admit he’s a miler. But a darned good one.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Riot

Equidaily.com:

Maybe Obama can learn something Kenny McPeek....lol

[MISTERGEE]

isnt this kinda like wondering why an aging ballplayer hitting less the .200 would strike out 3 times in a ballgame?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

Trophy.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Whether the horse is distance challenged or not is a different issue. Whether the horse is seriously good is a different issue. A seriously good horse would've been hard pressed to win with the trip this horse got yesterday. Give the horse the proper ride and if he continues to give it up late, then, concede that he's distance challenged or a plug. Continue to move the horse prematurely and the argument can't be made.

You can't have this horse doing all the running in just about every race it's run and then be critical of the results. No horse, even the best ones, can continually win under these type of conditions.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Whether the horse is distance challenged or not is a different issue. Whether the horse is seriously good is a different issue. A seriously good horse would've been hard pressed to win with the trip this horse got yesterday. Give the horse the proper ride and if he continues to give it up late, then, concede that he's distance challenged or a plug. Continue to move the horse prematurely and the argument can't be made.

You can't have this horse doing all the running in just about every race it's run and then be critical of the results. No horse, even the best ones, can continually win under these type of conditions.

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?

[dalakhani]

Let me clarify what I mean by that last post. If he waits, lets say he drafts behind the speed for another 1/16th of a mile until the top of the stretch, he can wait for the rail to open up as the speed holds on a little longer. Does the winner have to wait then or go wide? Does he get into traffic problems and possibly get into a mucky situation with paddy oprado and the rest of the oncoming stampede all of the while giving Nobles promise a clear run on a track he clearly relished?

I don't think he beats ice box either way. My point is that the race would have most likely changed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Let me clarify what I mean by that last post. If he waits, lets say he drafts behind the speed for another 1/16th of a mile until the top of the stretch, he can wait for the rail to open up as the speed holds on a little longer. Does the winner have to wait then or go wide? Does he get into traffic problems and possibly get into a mucky situation with paddy oprado and the rest of the oncoming stampede all of the while giving Nobles promise a clear run on a track he clearly relished?

I don't think he beats ice box either way. My point is that the race would have most likely changed.

No.

The horse stopped late, plain and simple. He couldn't get a mile and a quarter. So what, it happens. Pedigree isn't an exact science but some inferences can be made on what horses will prefer to do. I don't know how anyone can argue that when a horse gets beat by 6-7 lengths in two furlongs without any trouble that it would have been different if he waited 6 more seconds to give him everything he's got.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

I don't think this is a fair representation. NP was the only horse to run early (other than the speed), passing a number of horses to get into third, while SS was safely behind him. He also battled SS in the stretch before that one dropped him. Now, how many times is a horse supposed to run in a race? The pacesetters absolutely collapsed. This horse chased them, running into a fast 1st and 2nd split, then is used to run by them, then duels with the winner, who had a garden inside trip. And, the best you can offer is that Paddy, who was the benefit of all this got stopped in the stretch. Or that Ice Box got stopped? Consider this: what happens if Ice Box doesn't get stopped and is forced to make the same extended run that LaL and MMFM did? You think there's just a wee bit chance he levels off the way they did? Think about it: he's not that good. NP put in the best effort in the race given the setup. Give him SS' trip and he's right there.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't think this is a fair representation. NP was the only horse to run early (other than the speed), passing a number of horses to get into third, while SS was safely behind him. He also battled SS in the stretch before that one dropped him. Now, how many times is a horse supposed to run in a race? The pacesetters absolutely collapsed. This horse chased them, running into a fast 1st and 2nd split, then is used to run by them, then duels with the winner, who had a garden inside trip. And, the best you can offer is that Paddy, who was the benefit of all this got stopped in the stretch. Or that Ice Box got stopped? Consider this: what happens if Ice Box doesn't get stopped and is forced to make the same extended run that LaL and MMFM did? You think there's just a wee bit chance he levels off the way they did? Think about it: he's not that good. NP put in the best effort in the race given the setup. Give him SS' trip and he's right there.

Holy mother of God. Give it up. The horse I said would hit the board at 12-1 and you called a plug went by the horse I said wouldn't get the distance no matter what like he was standing still. Watch the overhead- which we have the benefit of like once a year- the trip between the 4 and the 3 was virtually identical. He was behind him by a length at MOST the whole race. You cannot make the argument that he was going to be any better than what he finished. You are nuts if you think that Ice Box actually benefited from getting stopped, that is the silliest argument of all.

Listen- you want this horse to be good. I get that. He is good. He just isn't a Derby horse, so what... it's a $10,000 buy by a sire that doesn't have stamina. It's a dream come true that they even made it this far. I hope for the sake of the horse they back him up and sprint.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

You are nuts if you think that Ice Box actually benefited from getting stopped, that is the silliest argument of all.

But he did. And you're not at the level where you can understand why. Ice Box got the best trip in the race relative to the setup. The chart clearly shows this. If he's allowed a clear run he fizzles out (relative to the winner) like the other closers.

The only one here who is able to understand this is (possibly/probably) Serling.

And NP COLLAPSED the race. Absolutely no doubt about that.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Bejarano was super-patient on him in the Cash Call Futurity. He didn't explode in the stretch. He just runs o.k. He couldn't catch LAL. You can't transfer that huge middle move NP has going 2 turns. It will only become a mediocre late move. He's a sprinter/miler. Don't care how obnoxious you write. Now matter how condescending you are to people, this horse naturally wants to move at a certain time. If you change that, he will not put in this huge stretch move (especially not going 9 or 10f.) This is a nice sprinter/miler.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Bejarano was super-patient on him in the Cash Call Futurity. He didn't explode in the stretch. He just runs o.k. He couldn't catch LAL. You can't transfer that huge middle move NP has going 2 turns. It will only become a mediocre late move. He's a sprinter/miler. Don't care how obnoxious you write. Now matter how condescending you are to people, this horse naturally wants to move at a certain time. If you change that, he will not put in this huge stretch move (especially not going 9 or 10f.) This is a nice sprinter/miler.

I'd watch the Cash Call again, Ace. Wasn't that the race where LaL was inside the entire race and NP was widest BOTH turns. If I remember correctly NP ran about 4 or 5 lengths more and lost by 3/4 of a length.

[hockey2315]

Don't feel like reading through all of this - so maybe it was already mentioned - but Noble's Promise is now likely for the Preakness. Might offer some good value. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Noble's Promise would be a good pickup for a good rider that is open. I know the Fat Man has belabored it to death, but he's right, this horse never seems to get a good ride. Now, maybe he's tough to ride, but he could use a patient rider like Gomez.