Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Clearly that head beat against LaL in the Rebel was much the best this guy will ever do on dirt...And considering what was in that race now clearly makes the point that he was never a classic distance type - the Ark only reinforced that IMO although I didn't totally discount the trouble he encountered, if he had any shot at a mile and a quarter he should have showed it.

This is a totally different thing from him being an "overrated allowance horse." I don't think anyone ever argued that he was a classic distance horse -- he was, after all, 24-1 in the Derby despite his back class -- and I'm certainly not one who thinks Willie did anything wrong. Because NP has (predictably) failed to stretch his ability past 8 1/2 furlongs, that makes him an overrated allowance horse?

It also isn't as though he got dusted yesterday. He was beaten six lengths. I find it hard to believe you'll see a Cuvee get that close to a Derby win in the near future (or ever).

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm certainly not one who thinks Willie did anything wrong.

If you think that the horse ran very well given the setup, then, it follows, that you think that Willie did something wrong.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If you think that the horse ran very well given the setup, then, it follows, that you think that Willie did something wrong.

Not necessarily. I think Willie got the horse into a good spot, not expecting the pace to be quite that fast, then Willie knew that considering the pace and the horse's distance limitations, his best shot was to take the lead in the stretch and see how long he could hold on. It was his only choice, but that still doesn't mean the horse had a particularly easy 10-furlong trip.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not necessarily. I think Willie got the horse into a good spot, not expecting the pace to be quite that fast, then Willie knew that considering the pace and the horse's distance limitations, his best shot was to take the lead in the stretch and see how long he could hold on. It was his only choice, but that still doesn't mean the horse had a particularly easy 10-furlong trip.

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

He was also moved early at KEE and the BC (which he completely SCREWED up). Is your contention that he can't get 8.5F?

[Riot]

Equidaily.com:

KEN McPEEK (Noble’s Promise, fifth): We talked a lot about waiting with this horse and not passing horses until the eighth-pole. Willie (Martinez) said he felt he was cruising, so he let him take the lead at the quarter-pole. We passed the 10 horse (Paddy O’Prado) and then he came back and passed us, so maybe we just need to admit he’s a miler. But a darned good one.

[MISTERGEE]

isnt this kinda like wondering why an aging ballplayer hitting less the .200 would strike out 3 times in a ballgame?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

Trophy.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Whether the horse is distance challenged or not is a different issue. Whether the horse is seriously good is a different issue. A seriously good horse would've been hard pressed to win with the trip this horse got yesterday. Give the horse the proper ride and if he continues to give it up late, then, concede that he's distance challenged or a plug. Continue to move the horse prematurely and the argument can't be made.

You can't have this horse doing all the running in just about every race it's run and then be critical of the results. No horse, even the best ones, can continually win under these type of conditions.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Whether the horse is distance challenged or not is a different issue. Whether the horse is seriously good is a different issue. A seriously good horse would've been hard pressed to win with the trip this horse got yesterday. Give the horse the proper ride and if he continues to give it up late, then, concede that he's distance challenged or a plug. Continue to move the horse prematurely and the argument can't be made.

You can't have this horse doing all the running in just about every race it's run and then be critical of the results. No horse, even the best ones, can continually win under these type of conditions.

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Bejarano was super-patient on him in the Cash Call Futurity. He didn't explode in the stretch. He just runs o.k. He couldn't catch LAL. You can't transfer that huge middle move NP has going 2 turns. It will only become a mediocre late move. He's a sprinter/miler. Don't care how obnoxious you write. Now matter how condescending you are to people, this horse naturally wants to move at a certain time. If you change that, he will not put in this huge stretch move (especially not going 9 or 10f.) This is a nice sprinter/miler.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

"I was comfortable and moving nicely. The 10 horse (Paddy O’Prado) kind of stopped in front of me, then I gained the lead and he responded nicely for me. The rest was all (Calvin) Borel. He had the horse. Obviously distance is going to be the question with this horse. He’ll be a top 3-year-old and I’m sure (trainer) Kenny (McPeek) will spot him around correctly."-WILLIE MARTINEZ

Fat Boy has a confidently-condescending style (a popular choice,) but all the facts point away from his conclusions about the horse's ability to get 10f.

[brianwspencer]

In response to dala's subject line -- no, Cuvee did.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

"I was comfortable and moving nicely. The 10 horse (Paddy O’Prado) kind of stopped in front of me, then I gained the lead and he responded nicely for me. The rest was all (Calvin) Borel. He had the horse. Obviously distance is going to be the question with this horse. He’ll be a top 3-year-old and I’m sure (trainer) Kenny (McPeek) will spot him around correctly."-WILLIE MARTINEZ

Fat Boy has a confidently-condescending style (a popular choice,) but all the facts point away from his conclusions about the horse's ability to get 10f.

I'll tell you this much, Doofus:

I'm a much better trip handicapper than Willie Martinez is a jock. You're a bigger clown that I thought if you actually take what any jock has to say after the race as being remotely representative --- especially a jock with obvious premature tendencies. Then again, as mentioned, the connections are clueless as to how much money that idiot has cost them, so why would I expect others to comprehend this.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'll tell you this much, Doofus:

I'm a much better trip handicapper than Willie Martinez is a jock. You're a bigger clown that I thought if you actually take what any jock has to say after the race as being remotely representative --- especially a jock with obvious premature tendencies. Then again, as mentioned, the connections are clueless as to how much money that idiot has cost them, so why would I expect others to comprehend this.

You lose any shred of credibility when you even quote him....much less respond.

Please, one outburst at a time.