Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Whether the horse is distance challenged or not is a different issue. Whether the horse is seriously good is a different issue. A seriously good horse would've been hard pressed to win with the trip this horse got yesterday. Give the horse the proper ride and if he continues to give it up late, then, concede that he's distance challenged or a plug. Continue to move the horse prematurely and the argument can't be made.

You can't have this horse doing all the running in just about every race it's run and then be critical of the results. No horse, even the best ones, can continually win under these type of conditions.

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?

[dalakhani]

Let me clarify what I mean by that last post. If he waits, lets say he drafts behind the speed for another 1/16th of a mile until the top of the stretch, he can wait for the rail to open up as the speed holds on a little longer. Does the winner have to wait then or go wide? Does he get into traffic problems and possibly get into a mucky situation with paddy oprado and the rest of the oncoming stampede all of the while giving Nobles promise a clear run on a track he clearly relished?

I don't think he beats ice box either way. My point is that the race would have most likely changed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Let me clarify what I mean by that last post. If he waits, lets say he drafts behind the speed for another 1/16th of a mile until the top of the stretch, he can wait for the rail to open up as the speed holds on a little longer. Does the winner have to wait then or go wide? Does he get into traffic problems and possibly get into a mucky situation with paddy oprado and the rest of the oncoming stampede all of the while giving Nobles promise a clear run on a track he clearly relished?

I don't think he beats ice box either way. My point is that the race would have most likely changed.

No.

The horse stopped late, plain and simple. He couldn't get a mile and a quarter. So what, it happens. Pedigree isn't an exact science but some inferences can be made on what horses will prefer to do. I don't know how anyone can argue that when a horse gets beat by 6-7 lengths in two furlongs without any trouble that it would have been different if he waited 6 more seconds to give him everything he's got.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

No.

The horse stopped late, plain and simple. He couldn't get a mile and a quarter. So what, it happens. Pedigree isn't an exact science but some inferences can be made on what horses will prefer to do. I don't know how anyone can argue that when a horse gets beat by 6-7 lengths in two furlongs without any trouble that it would have been different if he waited 6 more seconds to give him everything he's got.

I hear you and you may very well be right. I just think that in a race like the derby, especially the way this one set up, that the premature move could have had a huge impact on the way this race was run in the stretch. There is no denying that the winner got the ultimate trip. What if he has to check or hesitate on the turn? Does he still beat NP by 6-7 lengths?

[Danzig]

i don't think there's any way willie was staying in the top three with that horse. he's a good horse, but it was just too far for him. same finish position as in the arkansas derby.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I hear you and you may very well be right. I just think that in a race like the derby, especially the way this one set up, that the premature move could have had a huge impact on the way this race was run in the stretch. There is no denying that the winner got the ultimate trip. What if he has to check or hesitate on the turn? Does he still beat NP by 6-7 lengths?

No... only 5 1/2 lengths.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

No... only 5 1/2 lengths.

LOL

I'm giving up my hypothesis. On to Pimlico...and the crackheads.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

I don't think this is a fair representation. NP was the only horse to run early (other than the speed), passing a number of horses to get into third, while SS was safely behind him. He also battled SS in the stretch before that one dropped him. Now, how many times is a horse supposed to run in a race? The pacesetters absolutely collapsed. This horse chased them, running into a fast 1st and 2nd split, then is used to run by them, then duels with the winner, who had a garden inside trip. And, the best you can offer is that Paddy, who was the benefit of all this got stopped in the stretch. Or that Ice Box got stopped? Consider this: what happens if Ice Box doesn't get stopped and is forced to make the same extended run that LaL and MMFM did? You think there's just a wee bit chance he levels off the way they did? Think about it: he's not that good. NP put in the best effort in the race given the setup. Give him SS' trip and he's right there.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't think this is a fair representation. NP was the only horse to run early (other than the speed), passing a number of horses to get into third, while SS was safely behind him. He also battled SS in the stretch before that one dropped him. Now, how many times is a horse supposed to run in a race? The pacesetters absolutely collapsed. This horse chased them, running into a fast 1st and 2nd split, then is used to run by them, then duels with the winner, who had a garden inside trip. And, the best you can offer is that Paddy, who was the benefit of all this got stopped in the stretch. Or that Ice Box got stopped? Consider this: what happens if Ice Box doesn't get stopped and is forced to make the same extended run that LaL and MMFM did? You think there's just a wee bit chance he levels off the way they did? Think about it: he's not that good. NP put in the best effort in the race given the setup. Give him SS' trip and he's right there.

Holy mother of God. Give it up. The horse I said would hit the board at 12-1 and you called a plug went by the horse I said wouldn't get the distance no matter what like he was standing still. Watch the overhead- which we have the benefit of like once a year- the trip between the 4 and the 3 was virtually identical. He was behind him by a length at MOST the whole race. You cannot make the argument that he was going to be any better than what he finished. You are nuts if you think that Ice Box actually benefited from getting stopped, that is the silliest argument of all.

Listen- you want this horse to be good. I get that. He is good. He just isn't a Derby horse, so what... it's a $10,000 buy by a sire that doesn't have stamina. It's a dream come true that they even made it this far. I hope for the sake of the horse they back him up and sprint.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

You are nuts if you think that Ice Box actually benefited from getting stopped, that is the silliest argument of all.

But he did. And you're not at the level where you can understand why. Ice Box got the best trip in the race relative to the setup. The chart clearly shows this. If he's allowed a clear run he fizzles out (relative to the winner) like the other closers.

The only one here who is able to understand this is (possibly/probably) Serling.

And NP COLLAPSED the race. Absolutely no doubt about that.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But he did. And you're not at the level where you can understand why. Ice Box got the best trip in the race relative to the setup. The chart clearly shows this. If he's allowed a clear run he fizzles out (relative to the winner) like the other closers.

The only one here who is able to understand this is (possibly/probably) Serling.

And NP COLLAPSED the race. Absolutely no doubt about that.

You're out of your f*cking mind trying to rationalize why your interpretation was once again wrong. No big deal- TAM opens in 6 months. Plenty of time to analyze.

And your boy said this right after the race.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...99&postcount=2

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

You're out of your f*cking mind.

And your boy said this right after the race.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...99&postcount=2

That's fine. He has trouble with that trip as well.

[slotdirt]

I'm not suggesting for a second that the Fat Man doesn't understand race dynamics better than I do, but he surely has an interesting way of trying to explain his vantage point to others.

[blackthroatedwind]

Whether he's absolutely right or wrong, why make fun of someone who well may understand race dynamics better than you?

It's hard to argue against the notion that Noble's Promise collapsed the race. It was a poor ride ( there's a shock given the rider ) but it was probably somewhat irrelevent, as he wasn't getting the distance effectively anyway.

It's not all so simple.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whether he's absolutely right or wrong, why make fun of someone who well may understand race dynamics better than you?

It's hard to argue against the notion that Noble's Promise collapsed the race. It was a poor ride ( there's a shock given the rider ) but it was probably somewhat irrelevent, as he wasn't getting the distance effectively anyway.

It's not all so simple.

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

Phil

Take a deep breath. Consider for a moment that whether Ice Box ran well or not really meant nothing to me, as I went into the race with doubles to SC and NP. So, when NP fell apart, it didn't matter to me. If I thought the horse ran well after the fact, I'd certainly comment to that effect. But I wouldn't want anything that closed out of this race and I certainly wouldn't want the one that last moved the last movers.

Now, if you take a look at the chart for the race, you'll note that the 3rd last, last, last horse at the 1st 3 calls, ran together from the 3rd to the 4th call, where that made significant gains. At that point, while LaL and MMFM continue on making a slight gain, IB is going sideways. Clearly, he's expending energy while doing so but he's not expending the same amount as the other two. In other words, he gets a BREAK in his run and the chart shows that while the other 2 are gaining, he's losing ground to the winner. (this is between the mile and the stretch call). The stretch call to the wire, LAL backs up, MMFE makes/continues a nominal gain and IB comes on, gaining significantly. So, NP collapses the race, having 1st SS bid, then a whole wave of horses that included PoP (all of which fizzled out except PoP), and, finally, the 3 horses from the rear. So, not only did IB have the benefit of making the last run in the race but he was even able to last move the last movers, as a result of getting a break in the stretch. This horse has no shot in a race where he actually has to do any running on its own. I realize it's hard to grasp what I'm writing.

[asudevil]

Regardless of the final trip analysis , I was sick with the finish. I bet Ice Box at 85/1 at Wynn Las Vegas in February. I have to give Haksin credit for that play. After the Fountain of Youth, he was on ATR and said that IB had a wide trip, but finished well despite being 5th. Both he and Byk also loved the horse's apperance back then.

[philcski]

I'm driving down the left lane of a three lane highway going 40 mph with a car in front of me that I'm drafting in behind. There is someone in the right lane next to me going the exact same speed. The car in front of me stops to turn; I slow down to 30 MPH for two seconds and swerve into the center lane and re-accelerate to 40 MPH. Clearly, I am able to benefit from this as I spent less energy over the previous quarter mile because I drafted behind, despite giving up 29 feet of distance to the guy in the right lane in that two second period.