The Derby figure

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Mack

The problem is that this has turned into a food fight with everyone talking past each other. I think there's valid considerations on either side.

Regardless of the fig, the clock says the race was slow and that’s black and white and now etched in the history books.

The question in front of me is how am I going to use the fig, the clock, and all that other information from the day going forward. I’m of the mind that the wind is playing a much bigger role than is being allowed for in the figs. I think the pace actually was strong into that stiff breeze and stronger than the clock indicated.

If it was such a soft pace, why didn’t the speed stick better? If you look at the chart without the fractions, it looks like partial, if not total, pace collapse. So I’m giving most credit to Chrome and Samraat in my hindsight handicapping. Maybe I’m wrong, but I won’t know until I get more races from these guys.

Specifically to Beyer’s point in his article about Chrome’s move at the top of the stretch being an illusion, go watch the blimp view of the race from the long video on DRF. Skip to the 9:00 mark and tell me if that turn of foot is illusory.

My feeling is the pace collapse is always exaggerated by the fact that few of the horses in the Derby are bred for 10 furlongs. There are to many sprinters and milers trying to stretch their speed, so even with a soft pace, a partial collapse will always be the norm because they just can't get the distance.