The Derby figure

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

5/17/14 Preakness 1 3/16M - PIM:

California Chrome (Sherman)
Danza (Pletcher)
Ride On Curlin (Gowan)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Dynamic Impact (Casse)
Bayern (Baffert)
Pablo Del Monte (Ward)
Ring Weekend (Motion)__________________

One question I would have to ask is which of the above horses would have run faster in the derby. If the answer is none then every one of them is as suspect as the derby runners.

I'm going to take a shot with a new shooter. Probably Social Inclusion.

Betting the Preakness, is usually as simple as analyzing the Derby.

After the 2013 Derby, Orb was compared to Easy Goer by the most reputable organizations. After the 2000 Derby, Fusaichi Pegasus was supposedly sold to Coolmore for $65 million. After this years Derby... people want to pretend this race wasn't slow.

Whenever a post time favorite wins the Derby by a clear-cut margin -- they're generally extravagantly overrated.

Was Orb the next Easy Goer? No.

Was Fusaichi Pegasus worth the $65 million he sold for? No.

I remember people actually arguing that Street Sense was a conclusive Kentucky Derby winner and would-be Triple Crown winner...after he got an unbelievably lucky run up the rail, without a straw in his path. He was nowhere in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but the two Derby excuse horses Curlin (trip) and Hard Spun (pace) made up a $70.80 exacta in that Breeders' Cup Classic.

I asked a few girls on Twitter who wore big, silly, stupid hats to the Kentucky Derby. They basically said 'it was a little windy, but the wind wasn't all that bad.'

I think this is another case of a clear-cut favorite Derby winner, winning by a clear margin, and getting too much credit for his performance.

Big Brown was the last Derby who delivered an overwhelmingly dominant performance. But go back and look at his Preakness. It was very slow (just a 100 Beyer) and re-reading those threads would make for good entertainment.