Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

Good Call http : )

[hondo]

Doug ......great job analyzing this race, your pace analysis was spot on. You made me go back and look at Palace Malace and i had liked him from a breeding standpoint and I included him in both the multis and trifectas along with Oxbow who I thought was the best of the forwardly placed horses, Orb and Revolutionary. Thanks again

[Calzone Lord]

Appreciate the kind words.

I have a lot of skill and a lot of experience with analyzing races run to extremes like this years Kentucky Derby was -- and making the best of it with horses next time out (again, I've been able to take certain aspects of CJ's brilliance with numbers and computers, and certain elements of trip handicapping, an area where I learned a lot from Serling in those old Siro's seminars of over 10 years ago -- and couple them with my own skills in those areas and situations. Listening, studying, and learning from those two guys in that specific area really helped advanced me a lot. And just the experience of being able to isolate and study those type of races, at every track, every class level, every surface, all over the country...you learn more and get better by doing and seeing, seeing and doing)

This is always going to be a humbling game at times. Look at my selections for the Kentucky Derby, and you'll see a complete swing and miss.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Appreciate the kind words.

I have a lot of skill and a lot of experience with analyzing races run to extremes like this years Kentucky Derby was -- and making the best of it with horses next time out (again, I've been able to take certain aspects of CJ's brilliance with numbers and computers, and certain elements of trip handicapping, an area where I learned a lot from Serling in those old Siro's seminars of over 10 years ago -- and couple them with my own skills in those areas and situations. Listening, studying, and learning from those two guys in that specific area really helped advanced me a lot. And just the experience of being able to isolate and study those type of races, at every track, every class level, every surface, all over the country...you learn more and get better by doing and seeing, seeing and doing)

This is always going to be a humbling game at times. Look at my selections for the Kentucky Derby, and you'll see a complete swing and miss.

And yet both Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss were at a loss to explain what happened to Orb in the Preakness.

Bob Neumeier and Mike Battaglia said when they made their selections yesterday said that they couldn't understand why Orb ran so poorly in Baltimore.

Palace Malice found all kinds of trouble in the LA Derby, was too close to a race that collapsed in the Blue Grass, and of course set the insane pace in the Derby. He had a big right to improve. Yet none of the national media picked up on this at all.

You and Andy were out there early with this great analysis and deserve lots of credit.

Paul

[blackthroatedwind]

Yesterday's 12th and 13th at Belmont were great examples of horses that were coming out of negative dynamics situations. Sky Blue Pink had been in one of the more curious slow pace turf races of the meet at Belmont, his first off a layoff, where as a closer he ended up making an outrageous wide middle move. He came back to finish second at a big price. The third finisher, Why Not Whiskey, was very surprisingly on the pace in his last, as he's a deep closer, when he was also coming off a layoff. This is a classic prep race for a layoff horse. It ended up being a tough beat with these horses finishing 2nd and 3rd, but over time you make plenty of money with these horses.

In the 13th, Foolish Tiger had gotten an oddly aggressive ride in his last, making early and middle moves in a race that collapsed. His prior efforts made him one of the reasonable contenders if the favorite didn't run to his out of town form ( which he didn't ). He won at 12:1.

There are plenty of these, of course, that don't work out, but they will outperform their odds over time.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Good Call http : )

I've got a gift. I ended up landing on Incognito...obviously to no avail. CL has been on point, no doubt.

On a side note, how many of the 14 horses in the race yesterday actually put in any kind of run at any point, like 4?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Appreciate the kind words.

I have a lot of skill and a lot of experience with analyzing races run to extremes like this years Kentucky Derby was -- and making the best of it with horses next time out (again, I've been able to take certain aspects of CJ's brilliance with numbers and computers, and certain elements of trip handicapping, an area where I learned a lot from Serling in those old Siro's seminars of over 10 years ago -- and couple them with my own skills in those areas and situations. Listening, studying, and learning from those two guys in that specific area really helped advanced me a lot. And just the experience of being able to isolate and study those type of races, at every track, every class level, every surface, all over the country...you learn more and get better by doing and seeing, seeing and doing)

This is always going to be a humbling game at times. Look at my selections for the Kentucky Derby, and you'll see a complete swing and miss.

Come clean with the truth -- you only liked him because I said I liked him a week ago on facebook.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yesterday's 12th and 13th at Belmont were great examples of horses that were coming out of negative dynamics situations. Sky Blue Pink had been in one of the more curious slow pace turf races of the meet at Belmont, his first off a layoff, where as a closer he ended up making an outrageous wide middle move. He came back to finish second at a big price. The third finisher, Why Not Whiskey, was very surprisingly on the pace in his last, as he's a deep closer, when he was also coming off a layoff. This is a classic prep race for a layoff horse. It ended up being a tough beat with these horses finishing 2nd and 3rd, but over time you make plenty of money with these horses.

In the 13th, Foolish Tiger had gotten an oddly aggressive ride in his last, making early and middle moves in a race that collapsed. His prior efforts made him one of the reasonable contenders if the favorite didn't run to his out of town form ( which he didn't ). He won at 12:1.

There are plenty of these, of course, that don't work out, but they will outperform their odds over time.

It could have potentially saved me a lot of heartbreak had I read this earlier about Foolish Tiger...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

It could have potentially saved me a lot of heartbreak had I read this earlier about Foolish Tiger...

I did say it on TV.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I did say it on TV.

Yes, but I only bet that race in a Pick 4 and was alive with only the favorite and maybe the 4 if memory serves.