06-09-2013, 03:47 PM
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Flemington
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 11,024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Yesterday's 12th and 13th at Belmont were great examples of horses that were coming out of negative dynamics situations. Sky Blue Pink had been in one of the more curious slow pace turf races of the meet at Belmont, his first off a layoff, where as a closer he ended up making an outrageous wide middle move. He came back to finish second at a big price. The third finisher, Why Not Whiskey, was very surprisingly on the pace in his last, as he's a deep closer, when he was also coming off a layoff. This is a classic prep race for a layoff horse. It ended up being a tough beat with these horses finishing 2nd and 3rd, but over time you make plenty of money with these horses.
In the 13th, Foolish Tiger had gotten an oddly aggressive ride in his last, making early and middle moves in a race that collapsed. His prior efforts made him one of the reasonable contenders if the favorite didn't run to his out of town form ( which he didn't ). He won at 12:1.
There are plenty of these, of course, that don't work out, but they will outperform their odds over time.
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It could have potentially saved me a lot of heartbreak had I read this earlier about Foolish Tiger... 
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