Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

I don't care much at all who the jockey is with Palace Malice.

They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that.

With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace.

Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.

[largo1]

Hey Calzone Lord,
Can I get your pre-race analysis on both Golden Soul and Freedom Child? I always enjoy your commentary and as a relative newbie, would appreciate your input.
Good racing luck to all!

[Calzone Lord]

Both Freedom Child and Golden Soul will be off my tickets.

I respect Freedom Child, but I expect him to be a pace casualty. Frac Daddy is sending inside of him and the very good Oxbow will obviously be forward. The survivor of that wave of speed probably gets to take the best shot Vyjack and Palace Malice has on the turn. It's a very tough scenario for both FC and Oxbow. The commitment to send Frac Daddy may seem irrelevant, but it's not. Whenever the pace has been 47 and change or faster, it's usually collapsed Belmont's past. If Frac Daddy really is sent from the inside, there's no chance this pace isn't at least 47.

Golden Soul will get another great pace setup, but I don't like post #14, I don't like that he had a workout postponed because he wasn't eating well, and I'm generally not a fan of Dallas Stewart horses when he runs them in New York.

[zippyneedsawin]

I suspect Repoles longshot Midnight Taboo may be there to contribute to the pace as well.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't care much at all who the jockey is with Palace Malice.

They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that.

With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace.

Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.

Yep, I hear ya. Appreciate the response CL.