Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is as indefensible an absolute as someone that says Normandy Invasion would definitely have won had he been ridden well.

There are a lot of misconceptions in racing, but to me, few things are as misunderstood as how seemingly minor events in a race can dramatically affect the outcome. The ride on Normandy Invasion was far from a minor event.

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

I think Orb is a much better horse.

We can all guess all day long what would have happen. What if Will Take Charge hadn't been stopped cold? Would have he made a race out of it?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I think Orb is a much better horse.

We can all guess all day long what would have happen. What if Will Take Charge hadn't been stopped cold? Would have he made a race out of it?

Based on the actual race, the first part is another indefensible position.

As for the second part, as much as it would have meant to me if he had won, I am guessing he would have had a hard time making the Super. But that's just a guess with no solid ground either way.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Based on the actual race, the first part is another indefensible position.

As for the second part, as much as it would have meant to me if he had won, I am guessing he would have had a hard time making the Super. But that's just a guess with no solid ground either way.

Forums would not survive without a plethora of indefensible positions.


I will stand by my assertions.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Forums would not survive without a plethora of indefensible positions.


I will stand by my assertions.

I agree with you, but the issue is the following. Is NI a worthy challenger defined as a colt that with the right race dynamics can beat the Florida and Kentucky Derby winner? If so then the "much better" assesment is based on accomplishments instead of actual ability. Horses that are much better can overcome adverse trips and poor rider judgement. Has Orb done that? If not then much better has not been determined in minds of many

I think if you believe in NI you believe his abilty/potential is equal to Orb's. Like you I dont but what do I know and I could not be more subjective in my peference for the connections.

[Danzig]

was the move premature for normandy invasion, or just premature? would it have been a winning move on a better horse?
i'm not sure that NI is that good, and like chuck i don't think he's bred to go 10f.
did the ride really cost him, or was it the final nail in the coffin?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

was the move premature for normandy invasion, or just premature? would it have been a winning move on a better horse?
i'm not sure that NI is that good, and like chuck i don't think he's bred to go 10f.
did the ride really cost him, or was it the final nail in the coffin?

There is not a horse in the race that would have won with Normandy Invasion's trip in my opinion. I really don't think any would have been better than fourth.

[Danzig]

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-st...-consideration

just visited drf, and saw this update, which includes brown discussing the trip.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There is not a horse in the race that would have won with Normandy Invasion's trip in my opinion. I really don't think any would have been better than fourth.

I truly don't know how to measure this. Three scenarios have been presented.
Both horses get Orb's trip
I lean toward Orb

Both get NI's trip
I don't know

They swap trips
I lean toward NI

So now I compare NI to Oxbow. Orb beat NI by 3 1/2 NI beat Oxbow by 6
Both horses get NI's trip
I lean toward NI

Both horses get Oxbow's trip
I don't know

They swap trips
I lean toward Oxbow

How do I measure how much of a toll Oxbow's trip took on him by running 4/5 faster than NI in the first 1/4 mile and 2/5 (appr.) slower in the second 1/4? I'm just guessing.