Ride on Normandy Invasion

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I think Orb is a much better horse.

We can all guess all day long what would have happen. What if Will Take Charge hadn't been stopped cold? Would have he made a race out of it?

Based on the actual race, the first part is another indefensible position.

As for the second part, as much as it would have meant to me if he had won, I am guessing he would have had a hard time making the Super. But that's just a guess with no solid ground either way.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Based on the actual race, the first part is another indefensible position.

As for the second part, as much as it would have meant to me if he had won, I am guessing he would have had a hard time making the Super. But that's just a guess with no solid ground either way.

Forums would not survive without a plethora of indefensible positions.


I will stand by my assertions.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Forums would not survive without a plethora of indefensible positions.


I will stand by my assertions.

I agree with you, but the issue is the following. Is NI a worthy challenger defined as a colt that with the right race dynamics can beat the Florida and Kentucky Derby winner? If so then the "much better" assesment is based on accomplishments instead of actual ability. Horses that are much better can overcome adverse trips and poor rider judgement. Has Orb done that? If not then much better has not been determined in minds of many

I think if you believe in NI you believe his abilty/potential is equal to Orb's. Like you I dont but what do I know and I could not be more subjective in my peference for the connections.

[Danzig]

was the move premature for normandy invasion, or just premature? would it have been a winning move on a better horse?
i'm not sure that NI is that good, and like chuck i don't think he's bred to go 10f.
did the ride really cost him, or was it the final nail in the coffin?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

was the move premature for normandy invasion, or just premature? would it have been a winning move on a better horse?
i'm not sure that NI is that good, and like chuck i don't think he's bred to go 10f.
did the ride really cost him, or was it the final nail in the coffin?

There is not a horse in the race that would have won with Normandy Invasion's trip in my opinion. I really don't think any would have been better than fourth.

[Danzig]

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-st...-consideration

just visited drf, and saw this update, which includes brown discussing the trip.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-st...-consideration

just visited drf, and saw this update, which includes brown discussing the trip.

Good article.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There is not a horse in the race that would have won with Normandy Invasion's trip in my opinion. I really don't think any would have been better than fourth.

I truly don't know how to measure this. Three scenarios have been presented.
Both horses get Orb's trip
I lean toward Orb

Both get NI's trip
I don't know

They swap trips
I lean toward NI

So now I compare NI to Oxbow. Orb beat NI by 3 1/2 NI beat Oxbow by 6
Both horses get NI's trip
I lean toward NI

Both horses get Oxbow's trip
I don't know

They swap trips
I lean toward Oxbow

How do I measure how much of a toll Oxbow's trip took on him by running 4/5 faster than NI in the first 1/4 mile and 2/5 (appr.) slower in the second 1/4? I'm just guessing.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I truly don't know how to measure this.

It's very simple ... the further back you're positioned the better.

Orb was 18.75 lengths back after a half mile, and he, like everyone else, was still too close to the pace.

Had Rosario gone into the race with the plan to allow Orb to drop out of the field early and try to lose contact with the entire pack, it would have resulted in a better performance from Orb and he would have won with greater authority.

The problem is, NO ONE expected a pace anywhere close to that. The insanely fast pace was unexpected.

The last sloppy track was 2010, and Rosario allowed the pathetic longshot Make Music For Me to lag 28 lengths off of the early pace. He's in a purple box in this picture: He ultimately made a big wide move on the far turn and finished 4th



The horse in the red box was Ice Box... he was 24 lengths back after a half mile and was "FLYING" late to finish 2nd despite running into lots of traffic.

Here is the rest of Ice Box's career ...

Belmont Stakes: 9th beaten 11 lengths as the 9/5 post time favorite.

Haskell Stakes: 6th beaten 7 lengths in a field of just seven.

Travers: 8th beaten 7 lengths at 7/1 odds.

Monmouth Cup: 5th beaten 7 lengths at 9/2 odds in field of 6

Allowance Race: 3rd at 7/2 odds

Woodward: 6th at 11/1 odds

Jockey Club Gold Cup: 7th and last at 10/1 odds

Breeders Cup Classic: 8th at 30/1 odds.


The Mine That Bird tactics of dropping out of the pack early ...



would have been genius this year.

But that's in hindsight. No one could have predicted that pace...and if you're going to purposefully try and lose early contact with the field, you better be damn sure that the psychotic pace actually materializes.