Alpha-Ducking?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it seems so often that people get fascinated by the runner up in these races. why is that? not just mark valeski-it happens quite often.

1990- Unbridled 3rd Blue Grass
1992- Lil E. Tee 2nd Arkansas Derby
1993- Sea Hero 4th Blue Grass
1994- Go For Gin 2nd Wood Memorial
1995- Thunder Gulch 4th Blue Grass
1996- Grindstone 2nd Arkansas Derby
1997- Silver Charm 2nd Santa Anita Derby
1998- Real Quiet 2nd Santa Anita Derby
2001- Monarchos 2nd Wood Memorial
2003- Funny Cide 2nd Wood Memorial
2005- Giacomo 4th Santa Anita Derby
2007- Street Sense 2nd Blue Grass
2009- Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Park Derby
2010- Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

1990- Unbridled 3rd Blue Grass
1992- Lil E. Tee 2nd Arkansas Derby
1993- Sea Hero 4th Blue Grass
1994- Go For Gin 2nd Wood Memorial
1995- Thunder Gulch 4th Blue Grass
1996- Grindstone 2nd Arkansas Derby
1997- Silver Charm 2nd Santa Anita Derby
1998- Real Quiet 2nd Santa Anita Derby
2001- Monarchos 2nd Wood Memorial
2003- Funny Cide 2nd Wood Memorial
2005- Giacomo 4th Santa Anita Derby
2007- Street Sense 2nd Blue Grass
2009- Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Park Derby
2010- Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby

While these results are indisputable, obviously the main difference is that they all came in a horse's final prep for the Derby. That's what Mark Valeski has to prove. He ran like one of the patented cowboy hat move-ups this time of year. He still retains the opportunity to prove that race was just the start of his development.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

While these results are indisputable, obviously the main difference is that they all came in a horse's final prep for the Derby. That's what Mark Valeski has to prove. He ran like one of the patented cowboy hat move-ups this time of year. He still retains the opportunity to prove that race was just the start of his development.

I agree, but someone mentioned Funny Cide, so I picked up the ball and ran with it.

[Danzig]

but i really would like to know-how does one know when a horse is a legit contender who didn't quite get there, as opposed to a pretender who always tantalizes but never will get there in time? or is there a way?


edit-and yes, rollo, the list does show that the best on prep day isn't always best on derby day...but i'd like to know how to identify which horse might not be best on prep day, but will shine in ky? not every also-ran is the one.
and of course the list would be longer, which was also my point. people tend to jump from hot horse to hot horse-they can't all be the right one.
i've watched countless derby preps and derbies. sometimes i get the right one, more often not. but perhaps too much focus is placed on finding the one? it is only one race...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'd say that answers the question.

i'd rather see the list of hot horses who didn't win. i'm sure it's much, much longer. people get hooked on the gallop out, the closer that will surely get there next time, etc. my point is that many times people latch onto the bridesmaid, when really the winner of the race won a good one, and was the best that day.

and street sense (for one )is on that list-like people turned to him due to a runner up effort. and who was on lil e tee based on his pre-derby run?? or sea hero? lol

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd rather see the list of hot horses who didn't win. i'm sure it's much, much longer.

That's because there is only one Derby winner with about 19 also-rans every year.

people get hooked on the gallop out, the closer that will surely get there next time, etc. my point is that many times people latch onto the bridesmaid, when really the winner of the race won a good one, and was the best that day.

The best horse in a prep race isn't always the best horse on Derby day. Doesn't the list prove that?

and street sense (for one )is on that list-like people turned to him due to a runner up effort.

More importantly, did anyone get off of him? For a horse who had done little wrong, he was a relatively high-priced Derby favorite.

and who was on lil e tee based on his pre-derby run??

Lil E. Tee had won the Jim Beam and was barely edged by the highly-touted (and eventual Preakness-winning) Pine Bluff at Oaklawn. Were it not for the overhyped Arazi skewing the wagering, Lil E. Tee would have been a much shorter price.

or sea hero?

Sea Hero was a horse that had a very long form cycle. He took forever to break his maiden, then promptly won an allowance and the Champagne (with ease) in succession before spiraling back out of form in Florida. He slowly came back around with a return to turf and moving back to Kentucky. He made a sharp middle move in the Blue Grass that signaled he was coming back around. He then trained like a freight train the week of the Derby (bullet 6f), blinkers were removed, he caught a slightly off track (like he did at Belmont), would have won Steve Haskins' dapples n' muscles award in the post parade, and faced one of the worst Derby fields ever assembled. If all of that sounds like BS, the evidence still suggests he had his supporters, as he went off at 13-1 when he should have been over 30-1 on paper.