Alpha-Ducking?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

1990- Unbridled 3rd Blue Grass
1992- Lil E. Tee 2nd Arkansas Derby
1993- Sea Hero 4th Blue Grass
1994- Go For Gin 2nd Wood Memorial
1995- Thunder Gulch 4th Blue Grass
1996- Grindstone 2nd Arkansas Derby
1997- Silver Charm 2nd Santa Anita Derby
1998- Real Quiet 2nd Santa Anita Derby
2001- Monarchos 2nd Wood Memorial
2003- Funny Cide 2nd Wood Memorial
2005- Giacomo 4th Santa Anita Derby
2007- Street Sense 2nd Blue Grass
2009- Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Park Derby
2010- Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby

While these results are indisputable, obviously the main difference is that they all came in a horse's final prep for the Derby. That's what Mark Valeski has to prove. He ran like one of the patented cowboy hat move-ups this time of year. He still retains the opportunity to prove that race was just the start of his development.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

While these results are indisputable, obviously the main difference is that they all came in a horse's final prep for the Derby. That's what Mark Valeski has to prove. He ran like one of the patented cowboy hat move-ups this time of year. He still retains the opportunity to prove that race was just the start of his development.

I agree, but someone mentioned Funny Cide, so I picked up the ball and ran with it.

[Danzig]

but i really would like to know-how does one know when a horse is a legit contender who didn't quite get there, as opposed to a pretender who always tantalizes but never will get there in time? or is there a way?


edit-and yes, rollo, the list does show that the best on prep day isn't always best on derby day...but i'd like to know how to identify which horse might not be best on prep day, but will shine in ky? not every also-ran is the one.
and of course the list would be longer, which was also my point. people tend to jump from hot horse to hot horse-they can't all be the right one.
i've watched countless derby preps and derbies. sometimes i get the right one, more often not. but perhaps too much focus is placed on finding the one? it is only one race...