Alpha-Ducking?
 

Alpha to La Derby. Usually I get suckered into the winner of that one after the race, now my horse is choosing it. :mad:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...ana-derby.aspx

Alpha has absolutely no chance of beating Mark Valeski.

Fun race the Risen Star but he had it all his way and got beat. I am inclined to disagree.

it seems so often that people get fascinated by the runner up in these races. why is that? not just mark valeski-it happens quite often.

Unsure, I can say that around 80% of my recent Derby top choices have come through that place, after Fresian Fire I swore off LaD as a place a winner could come from. It has worked out. Peace Rules was the closest I got as I didnt like Grindstone enough...

It seems that way since Funny Cide finished 2nd to Empire Maker in the Wood and than came back to beat him in the derby.


It goes along with the strong gallop out which is also over blown in my opinion.

1990- Unbridled 3rd Blue Grass
1992- Lil E. Tee 2nd Arkansas Derby
1993- Sea Hero 4th Blue Grass
1994- Go For Gin 2nd Wood Memorial
1995- Thunder Gulch 4th Blue Grass
1996- Grindstone 2nd Arkansas Derby
1997- Silver Charm 2nd Santa Anita Derby
1998- Real Quiet 2nd Santa Anita Derby
2001- Monarchos 2nd Wood Memorial
2003- Funny Cide 2nd Wood Memorial
2005- Giacomo 4th Santa Anita Derby
2007- Street Sense 2nd Blue Grass
2009- Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Park Derby
2010- Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby

While these results are indisputable, obviously the main difference is that they all came in a horse's final prep for the Derby. That's what Mark Valeski has to prove. He ran like one of the patented cowboy hat move-ups this time of year. He still retains the opportunity to prove that race was just the start of his development.

i'd rather see the list of hot horses who didn't win. i'm sure it's much, much longer. people get hooked on the gallop out, the closer that will surely get there next time, etc. my point is that many times people latch onto the bridesmaid, when really the winner of the race won a good one, and was the best that day.

and street sense (for one )is on that list-like people turned to him due to a runner up effort. and who was on lil e tee based on his pre-derby run?? or sea hero? lol

I agree, but someone mentioned Funny Cide, so I picked up the ball and ran with it.

That's because there is only one Derby winner with about 19 also-rans every year.

The best horse in a prep race isn't always the best horse on Derby day. Doesn't the list prove that?

More importantly, did anyone get off of him? For a horse who had done little wrong, he was a relatively high-priced Derby favorite.

Lil E. Tee had won the Jim Beam and was barely edged by the highly-touted (and eventual Preakness-winning) Pine Bluff at Oaklawn. Were it not for the overhyped Arazi skewing the wagering, Lil E. Tee would have been a much shorter price.

Sea Hero was a horse that had a very long form cycle. He took forever to break his maiden, then promptly won an allowance and the Champagne (with ease) in succession before spiraling back out of form in Florida. He slowly came back around with a return to turf and moving back to Kentucky. He made a sharp middle move in the Blue Grass that signaled he was coming back around. He then trained like a freight train the week of the Derby (bullet 6f), blinkers were removed, he caught a slightly off track (like he did at Belmont), would have won Steve Haskins' dapples n' muscles award in the post parade, and faced one of the worst Derby fields ever assembled. If all of that sounds like BS, the evidence still suggests he had his supporters, as he went off at 13-1 when he should have been over 30-1 on paper.

but i really would like to know-how does one know when a horse is a legit contender who didn't quite get there, as opposed to a pretender who always tantalizes but never will get there in time? or is there a way?


edit-and yes, rollo, the list does show that the best on prep day isn't always best on derby day...but i'd like to know how to identify which horse might not be best on prep day, but will shine in ky? not every also-ran is the one.
and of course the list would be longer, which was also my point. people tend to jump from hot horse to hot horse-they can't all be the right one.
i've watched countless derby preps and derbies. sometimes i get the right one, more often not. but perhaps too much focus is placed on finding the one? it is only one race...

They both stink.... not sure what you see in mark valeski. I would take alpha over him, but like I said they both stink.

A lot of that going on with Optimizer right now...........I for one think he'll take a ton of extra money in the Ark Derby which is ok with me. These horses are like the 2nd string QB that comes in to mop up when a game is out of hand and have some success. Over-rated.

Not sure your definition of stink..... Valeski ran a 6.5 then a 6 on the sheets losing by a nose to El Padrino who ran a 4.75 on the sheets. Alpha has ran 8.25 and a 7 in his last 2 starts which is pretty good. May not be in same league as UR or CC but numbers wise MV is not far off.

Snake,
Welcome to the board. Just like at the race track not everyone's opinion is equally regarded. Some people just like to talk louder than others so they can pat themselves on their back when they are occasionally right. You will figure this out as you read through the threads.

snake, there are people here with great capping knowledge. the guy you're replying to-he's not one of them.

Haha.

Think it is more Alpha trying to get cash,LA Derby is gonna be alot easier to finish 1,2,3 then the Wood or FL Derby will be.

Even if he finishes 2nd to Valeski he will have enough earnings