BC races for winning longshot and/or vulnerable favorite loses

[philcski]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

The Turf Sprint - The logical horses drew outside and will still be bet. The key race is the October 8th 5th race at Keeneland. Four are coming out of that one and I give all but Great Attack big shots (Perfect Officer, Country Day and Havelock). I also give Regally Ready and Hoofit (if he goes at near his 15 - 1 m/l he's a steal) shots. That is a large group of five but there is a mix short and long prices here and with money going to two former champs and Carcortodo this other group may float up. I will be using these 5 in multi race (part of the early Saturday Pick 4/pick 3s and doubles) bets and verticals.

The Dirt Mile - no one should take a short price of any of these as only one (Jersey Town) has won a race at a flat mile this year. So toss the two m/l favorites Trappe Shot and The Factor. A couple of interesting ones here look to be Wilbur and Tapizar and I will build around them. Generally speaking keep tabs on Mott and Asmussen's runners as each looks to be coming into the races ready and may offer value.

The F & M Turf - With the top European females headed to the Turf, the North American runners may have a shot. Although Stacelita will be tough, Dubawi Heights will get things her own way and the Motion horses are always ready the one I am looking at for value is Perfect Shirl. In her last she ran a TG number that matched the m/l favorite, finished 1/2 length behind next out winner Never Retreat and 3 lengths ahead of next out winner Miss Keller. I am concerned about pace as she needs to close into it but when Attfield decided to send Miss Keller to WO and this one here I'm sure he knew what he was doing. 30 - 1 m/l and my guess is go off at more like 45 - 1.

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with you here. This 30-1 shot is far from hopeless. And while her previous effort at the distance was dreadful it's not an issue- her half brother was a monster. And even better, she gets JV, who has a great record for Attfield. I'll try to get her in the super.

Yeah buddy!!!