BC races for winning longshot and/or vulnerable favorite loses

[philcski]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

The Turf Sprint - The logical horses drew outside and will still be bet. The key race is the October 8th 5th race at Keeneland. Four are coming out of that one and I give all but Great Attack big shots (Perfect Officer, Country Day and Havelock). I also give Regally Ready and Hoofit (if he goes at near his 15 - 1 m/l he's a steal) shots. That is a large group of five but there is a mix short and long prices here and with money going to two former champs and Carcortodo this other group may float up. I will be using these 5 in multi race (part of the early Saturday Pick 4/pick 3s and doubles) bets and verticals.

The Dirt Mile - no one should take a short price of any of these as only one (Jersey Town) has won a race at a flat mile this year. So toss the two m/l favorites Trappe Shot and The Factor. A couple of interesting ones here look to be Wilbur and Tapizar and I will build around them. Generally speaking keep tabs on Mott and Asmussen's runners as each looks to be coming into the races ready and may offer value.

The F & M Turf - With the top European females headed to the Turf, the North American runners may have a shot. Although Stacelita will be tough, Dubawi Heights will get things her own way and the Motion horses are always ready the one I am looking at for value is Perfect Shirl. In her last she ran a TG number that matched the m/l favorite, finished 1/2 length behind next out winner Never Retreat and 3 lengths ahead of next out winner Miss Keller. I am concerned about pace as she needs to close into it but when Attfield decided to send Miss Keller to WO and this one here I'm sure he knew what he was doing. 30 - 1 m/l and my guess is go off at more like 45 - 1.

I agree with you here. This 30-1 shot is far from hopeless. And while her previous effort at the distance was dreadful it's not an issue- her half brother was a monster. And even better, she gets JV, who has a great record for Attfield. I'll try to get her in the super.

[ateamstupid]

Turbulent Descent at 6-5 is a joke. Her Test was outstanding, but other than that she hasn't done anything special, and she's got too many layoff lines in her form for me to trust her at a short price. I'd even take Switch or Pomeroys Pistol over her at even odds, and I think several others have legitimate chances in that race.

I think Misty For Me has a big shot to steal the F&M Turf on the lead, even from the 12-hole.

Haven't looked at Saturday yet.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Turbulent Descent at 6-5 is a joke. Her Test was outstanding, but other than that she hasn't done anything special, and she's got too many layoff lines in her form for me to trust her at a short price. I'd even take Switch or Pomeroys Pistol over her at even odds, and I think several others have legitimate chances in that race.

I think Misty For Me has a big shot to steal the F&M Turf on the lead, even from the 12-hole.

Haven't looked at Saturday yet.

Totally agree on Misty(no mush). Look at that Group 1 resume! Add a little American juice, in order to get loose!

[ellpol]

In the BC Juv Turf race 4 Saturday my longshot selection is #11 Excaper. Finale just beat him in September by 3/4. At 30-1 I am going to take an exacta flyer first and second with him and several others in this race.

[lemoncrush]

I'm going with Jake mo in the Juvy Sprint.

After setting a new track record going 5-1/2 furlongs in a stakes at Prairie Meadows in July, they pointed to this race.

Several horses that he beat in his Maiden win and in his stakes win have come back to win impressively (albeit, at lesser tracks like Remington, Hoosier and Mountaineer).

His prep for this in the Kip Deville stakes was a tossout, as he got a peculiar ride and was wide most of the way.

2nd off a layoff, I expect him to be much sharper tomorrow. He should be able to lay just off the speed and make a run late. He may not be able to overcome Secret Circle, but I'm counting on him being in the tri, at a price that should be every bit of 20-1.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

The Turf Sprint - The logical horses drew outside and will still be bet. The key race is the October 8th 5th race at Keeneland. Four are coming out of that one and I give all but Great Attack big shots (Perfect Officer, Country Day and Havelock). I also give Regally Ready and Hoofit (if he goes at near his 15 - 1 m/l he's a steal) shots. That is a large group of five but there is a mix short and long prices here and with money going to two former champs and Carcortodo this other group may float up. I will be using these 5 in multi race (part of the early Saturday Pick 4/pick 3s and doubles) bets and verticals.

The Dirt Mile - no one should take a short price of any of these as only one (Jersey Town) has won a race at a flat mile this year. So toss the two m/l favorites Trappe Shot and The Factor. A couple of interesting ones here look to be Wilbur and Tapizar and I will build around them. Generally speaking keep tabs on Mott and Asmussen's runners as each looks to be coming into the races ready and may offer value.

The F & M Turf - With the top European females headed to the Turf, the North American runners may have a shot. Although Stacelita will be tough, Dubawi Heights will get things her own way and the Motion horses are always ready the one I am looking at for value is Perfect Shirl. In her last she ran a TG number that matched the m/l favorite, finished 1/2 length behind next out winner Never Retreat and 3 lengths ahead of next out winner Miss Keller. I am concerned about pace as she needs to close into it but when Attfield decided to send Miss Keller to WO and this one here I'm sure he knew what he was doing. 30 - 1 m/l and my guess is go off at more like 45 - 1.

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with you here. This 30-1 shot is far from hopeless. And while her previous effort at the distance was dreadful it's not an issue- her half brother was a monster. And even better, she gets JV, who has a great record for Attfield. I'll try to get her in the super.

Yeah buddy!!!

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah buddy!!!

Congrats on your superfecta hit!!! over 20k!!!!!