3yo recap and updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

While I understand what you are saying and why you think it, why exactly is Machen a very fast sprinter? Because his debut in a sprint was okay? I just don't think he's a route horse.

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the training of that horse.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the trainer of that horse.

So one race makes a horse very fast? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but I just don't think you can make statements like that about horses in this crop, especially after the way we have seen some of these "very fast" horses run after their debuts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So one race makes a horse very fast? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but I just don't think you can make statements like that about horses in this crop, especially after the way we have seen some of these "very fast" horses run after their debuts.

Those debut horses you speak of - they'll get back to and break-through their numbers imo.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the training of that horse.

Howard was convinced that Machen couldn't get 10 furlongs, so he trained him and allowed him to be ridden accordingly.

[blackthroatedwind]

DrugS still can't understand why Cryptoclearance didn't wire fields given the speed he showed in his first start or two.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

DrugS still can't understand why Cryptoclearance didn't wire fields given the speed he showed in his first start or two.

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

I agree that the recent tactics have been foolish.

Cryptoclearance was trained by Scotty Schulhofer, who could have trained the speed out of The Factor.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

Cryptoclearance broke his maiden by 12 lengths going 7fs at Saratoga. I think it was his third lifetime start.

[somerfrost]

I guess if I was impressed by anyone this weekend it would be Master Of Hounds, ran exceptionally well in UAE Derby and certainly is bred well. Don't know if they will consider him for the Derby but if so, he would be a danger in the lane with that breeding!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I guess if I was impressed by anyone this weekend it would be Master Of Hounds, ran exceptionally well in UAE Derby and certainly is bred well. Don't know if they will consider him for the Derby but if so, he would be a danger in the lane with that breeding!

I'm guessing you don't bet....as this is one horrendous opinion.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm guessing you don't bet....as this is one horrendous opinion.

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

I don't think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel at Churchill Downs. Saying he isn't a dirt horse is a bit premature in my opinion...his breeding indicates turf preference but he handled the surface in Dubai so there is no reason he might not enjoy dirt. Stamina certainly wouldn't be a problem...not out of the question he could be a legit factor. Would like to see him run in a prep here of course.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

Yeah as far as derbies go, I would've thought more Epsom than Kentucky.

Incidentally, I was looking at MOH's pedigree and realized Sadler's Wells turned 30 this year. I wasn't expecting him to be that old. He's still hanging around the paddock as a healthy pensioner, I assume.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Howard was convinced that Machen couldn't get 10 furlongs, so he trained him and allowed him to be ridden accordingly.

As nicely as he rates - he could probably get 12 furlongs on the lead. Maybe this years Da Tara the way this crop is shaping up.


I'm not a big bounce guy to say the least - but a lot of these horses who regress after a debut - regress because human connections fucl< them up by imposing their will on a horse.

In a debut - a horse will run huge if it finds the kind of distance it likes and finds the type of pace it takes.

A lot was made about Zensational losing a paceless 8f race at odds of 1/9 in brutally slow time after his maiden win ....



Didn't stop him from winning 3 Grade 1's in a row - 2 of which at 7fs. He got into a tug of war wrestling match with his rider like Bind did.

Machen's not that type. He's at least a nice prospect as a mid-pack sprinter - and is still a wildcard as a speed router.