3yo recap and updated Derby Chances

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Calvin Borel singlehandedly lost the race for Elite Alex by taking him back again. And Machen - a very fast sprinter by Distorted Humor out of a More Than Ready mare - once again had to attempt the role of deep closer, with a wide move, into a slow pace. Perhaps Neil Howard's main goal with him is some 4.5 mile endurance race somewhere. Machen was once again Sway Away flat with those same tactics.

While I understand what you are saying and why you think it, why exactly is Machen a very fast sprinter? Because his debut in a sprint was okay? I just don't think he's a route horse.

Same thing for Elite Alex. Yeah, he showed speed in his debut 10 months ago, but he wasn't on the shelf for 6 months after that for nothing and I think whatever early speed he once had is no more. I still don't see the hype with this one and he's yet to crack a 90 Beyer and it's almost April.

I didn't like Nehro at all yesterday, so this isn't a redboard, but I do think it's possible he's improving. I think this is a very in and out group with the exception of a few and Uncle Mo keeps looking better and better. I think we're going to keep seeing fields like this taking turns beating each other.

[RolloTomasi]

I have a feeling To Honour And Serve is going to have an Unbridled's Song- or Holy Bull-like return to form in the Florida Derby.

It almost has to happen or might as well start looking to the 3yo fillies division for Derby contenders.

Apparently, all the real horses from this crop reside in Steve Asmussen's barn awaiting starts in maiden special weight sprints at Santa Anita.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I have a feeling To Honour And Serve is going to have an Unbridled's Song- or Holy Bull-like return to form in the Florida Derby.

It almost has to happen or might as well start looking to the 3yo fillies division for Derby contenders.

Apparently, all the real horses from this crop reside in Steve Asmussen's barn awaiting starts in maiden special weight sprints at Santa Anita.

plum pretty

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

plum pretty

Plum Pretty's margin of victory (25 lengths I believe) was impressive but she beat nobody today (there were no horses resembling a Zazu or Turbulent Descent). Same easy route that Baffert took with Tough Tiz's Sis and Gabby's Golden Gal.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Plum Pretty's margin of victory (25 lengths I believe) was impressive but she beat nobody today (there were no horses resembling a Zazu or Turbulent Descent). Same easy route that Baffert took with Tough Tiz's Sis and Gabby's Golden Gal.

she would've won the 800k race today

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

she would've won the 800k race today

She would have needed to rate well off the insane fractions that Sinai set.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

plum pretty

She's more likely to emulate Gabby's Golden Gal than Rachel Alexandra.

Her next win will be either the Iowa or Indiana Oaks.

[mbahadur]

The Factor will insure a fast Derby pace. If he cannot get the distance and Uncle Mo will be too short a price, I like Dialed In ahead of Premier Pegasus, To Honor and Serve, and Soldat.

I am really looking forward to the Florida Derby this weekend as it should provide a better read on Dialed In, Soldat, and To Honor and Serve (especially if Flashpoint runs and provides a pace similar to last year's Florida Derby).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

While I understand what you are saying and why you think it, why exactly is Machen a very fast sprinter? Because his debut in a sprint was okay? I just don't think he's a route horse.

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the training of that horse.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the trainer of that horse.

So one race makes a horse very fast? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but I just don't think you can make statements like that about horses in this crop, especially after the way we have seen some of these "very fast" horses run after their debuts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So one race makes a horse very fast? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but I just don't think you can make statements like that about horses in this crop, especially after the way we have seen some of these "very fast" horses run after their debuts.

Those debut horses you speak of - they'll get back to and break-through their numbers imo.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the training of that horse.

Howard was convinced that Machen couldn't get 10 furlongs, so he trained him and allowed him to be ridden accordingly.

[blackthroatedwind]

DrugS still can't understand why Cryptoclearance didn't wire fields given the speed he showed in his first start or two.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

DrugS still can't understand why Cryptoclearance didn't wire fields given the speed he showed in his first start or two.

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

I agree that the recent tactics have been foolish.

Cryptoclearance was trained by Scotty Schulhofer, who could have trained the speed out of The Factor.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

Cryptoclearance broke his maiden by 12 lengths going 7fs at Saratoga. I think it was his third lifetime start.

[somerfrost]

I guess if I was impressed by anyone this weekend it would be Master Of Hounds, ran exceptionally well in UAE Derby and certainly is bred well. Don't know if they will consider him for the Derby but if so, he would be a danger in the lane with that breeding!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I guess if I was impressed by anyone this weekend it would be Master Of Hounds, ran exceptionally well in UAE Derby and certainly is bred well. Don't know if they will consider him for the Derby but if so, he would be a danger in the lane with that breeding!

I'm guessing you don't bet....as this is one horrendous opinion.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm guessing you don't bet....as this is one horrendous opinion.

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?