2/26 (GP): Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, Davona Dale (G2's)

[hockey2315]

I'm with you that they don't look right.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm with you that they don't look right.

I know there are only two races to work with - but for the life of me - I can't ever remember being that far in disagreement!

Sheckleford's 9f GP alw win got an 89 Beyer... and here's how the top 3 finishers from that race performed in the Fountain of Youth...

Winner: Sheckleford - 5th by 23.5 lengths

2nd Place: Casper's Touch - 7th by 35.5 lengths

3rd Place: El Grayling - pressed the pace and was eased through the stretch after hopelessly beaten.

[Indian Charlie]

I think THAS got exposed for the horse I suspected he was all along.

A slow speed horse that needs a soft pace to run his race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't know what's worse - that they let PG 1985 make the Beyers today for the two 2-turn routes at Gulfstream .... or the person on Facebook saying that Soldat "upset" To Honor And Serve ... how does a 1.40-to-1 favorite "upset" a 1.70-to-1 second choice?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't know what's worse - that they let PG 1985 make the Beyers today for the two 2-turn routes at Gulfstream .... or the person on Facebook saying that Soldat "upset" To Honor And Serve ... how does a 1.40-to-1 favorite "upset" a 1.70-to-1 second choice?

You see this all the time in College hoops when some unranked, or lesser ranked, team beats a highly ranked team, and the newspapers call it an " upset " even though the winner was favored.

[Danzig]

from bloodhorse:


It will also be on to the Florida Derby for To Honor and Serve. "(Velazquez) liked his race," trainer Bill Mott said. "He said (To Honor and Serve) did everything he asked until he got to the quarter pole, and then he said he got a little flat. I can imagine he might have needed the race. If he got beat I thought he might carry (Velazquez) a little more into the stretch.
"It looks like he needed the race. John compared him to the horse he rode and won the Davona Dale (R Heat Lightning). The first time down here she was a little flat and she came back and ran big today.”

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A typically useless jockey and trainer quote.

I think the R Heat Lightning comparison he makes was because she was 4 wide chasing a fast pace in her prior start. He wasn't on Devil May Care last year for her 3yo debut at FG - I think Castellano was - but that was the same type of thing. DMC chased a very fast pace four wide through the 1st turn - and when she couldn't go with inside horse on the far turn she hit the reset button and fired on the airbreaks... I think she was like 5th by 12 in that race.

Mine That Bird was 4th or 5th in the Sunland Derby when wide and chasing a very fast pace. Sure, his Derby was a fluke - but he just missed in the Preakness - and a lot of people thought he was best in the Belmont.

Archarcharch was hung wide against a fast pace in the Smarty Jones when he faded. There's hundreds of big form reversals I can think of that come from that type of races. A lot of times though - the big form reversal only happens if horses can comfortably relax early on next time out.

It's the exact opposite in slow paced races. You want to be a wide presser in those type of races...especially with inferior horses inside of you. You have complete and utter control of the race from there.

That's why I don't even bother watching a race until I feel comfortable that I can gauge the pace. The same wide pressing position that can be an absolute dream spot in a slow paced race - is a horrid spot in a fast paced race.

What's interesting about this years Fountain of Youth is that there are mixed signals on how fast the pace actually was - it was 30 points faster than the alw pace - but very oddly it graded out a lot slower than I expected on my par chart. And even the final time figure has question marks. It looks cut and dry in the 106-to-109 range to me.