Twirling Candy Love....

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What the fucl< are you talking about?

Pulling means he's fighting the jock's restraint, period. His running style is a couple of degrees away from being deemed "rank". It will be a weakness if and when he faces other class opponents. Therefore, he will be quite vulnerable to a heavy pace scenario in a route if he actually ever lines up in a race of that potential.

Go watch the race a few times zoom in on TC. He is hardly a hand full and way more settled then is previous races. You are going to have to drop the preconceived BS and really watch the colt is just fast

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Go watch the race a few times zoom in on TC. He is hardly a hand full and way more settled then is previous races. You are going to have to drop the preconceived BS and really watch the colt is just fast

You gotta be kidding me. Rosario has a hammer lock with the colt's head cocked to the right around the clubhouse turn and then checks him a couple of times along the backstretch (feet practically in the dashboard the whole way). The only reason a duel didn't develop was because Indian Firewater, open mouthed, accelerated after the opening quarter while Rosario was busy gathering up Twirling Candy. Inexplicably, the geniuses on the other horses decided the first two were going to slow and all moved early in unison into the teeth of a 1:09+ 6f fraction, essentially guaranteeing that Twirling Candy would have no late rival to deal with once Indian Firewater had had enough.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't have par times and charts and all that other stuff for SA's new dirt track ... but I actually thought the Strub pace was pretty darn slow considering the speed of the racing surface.

Twirling Candy only ran a 101 - I have no opinion if I agree with that number or not - but, if the pace was slow .. I think he deserves props for getting as much late seperation on that field of horrid bums as he did.

But yeah, a lot of people are going way overboard with that win...and he's still suspect going forward for some of the reasons Rollo has made throughout this thread.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You gotta be kidding me. Rosario has a hammer lock with the colt's head cocked to the right around the clubhouse turn and then checks him a couple of times along the backstretch (feet practically in the dashboard the whole way). The only reason a duel didn't develop was because Indian Firewater, open mouthed, accelerated after the opening quarter while Rosario was busy gathering up Twirling Candy. Inexplicably, the geniuses on the other horses decided the first two were going to slow and all moved early in unison into the teeth of a 1:09+ 6f fraction, essentially guaranteeing that Twirling Candy would have no late rival to deal with once Indian Firewater had had enough.

The opened mouth Indian Firewater was running significantly slower then Morning line and stem cell Eddie and while we can view Twirling Candy's behavior differently you have to conceed that if twirling Candy was in the Donn he would have been able to run a lot faster early in the race and still not be nearly as restrained. I think the fact that he was able to rate into pace figs that a well respected pace fig maker has repped at 20 pts slower then the Donn speaks volumes to my argument that TC could have been 3 or 4 lengths off the hot Donn pace and been in terriffic striking postion. in essence debunking your theory he would have been cooked by ML and friends.
While TC was toiling on a 90ish pace in the Strub and able to restrain from cooking himself on the lead lets assume he was given a bit more run in the Donn and was allowed to run a 100 pace while ML and Eddie cooked on a 110ish pace.. Your only theory could now be running a 100 early vs. a restrained 90 would have twarted his last 3/8ths. I guess its possible but I actually see him winning the race(Donn) with considerable ease.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The opened mouth Indian Firewater was running significantly slower then Morning line and stem cell Eddie and while we can view Twirling Candy's behavior differently you have to conceed that if twirling Candy was in the Donn he would have been able to run a lot faster early in the race and still not be nearly as restrained. I think the fact that he was able to rate into pace figs that a well respected pace fig maker has repped at 20 pts slower then the Donn speaks volumes to my argument that TC could have been 3 or 4 lengths off the hot Donn pace and been in terriffic striking postion. in essence debunking your theory he would have been cooked by ML and friends.
While TC was toiling on a 90ish pace in the Strub and able to restrain from cooking himself on the lead lets assume he was given a bit more run in the Donn and was allowed to run a 100 pace while ML and Eddie cooked on a 110ish pace.. Your only theory could now be running a 100 early vs. a restrained 90 would have twarted his last 3/8ths. I guess its possible but I actually see him winning the race(Donn) with considerable ease.

I'm not qualified to comment on the pace figures, however the 3/4 split was nearly 4 seconds faster than that of the San Antonio (a Grade 2 for 4yo and up) a day later at the same track and distance. Nevertheless, my comment was in response to yours saying that visually Twirling Candy settled nicely in the Strub. That simply wasn't the case.

Now, your new theory that because TC wasn't on the lead (despite "pulling") in the slower paced Strub, he would be able to settle off a faster pace as in the Donn I suppose is possible. Again, I wouldn't necessarily describe it as "settled" but he was pretty much outrun early in the Malibu, which would lend some support to your idea.

However, it should be recognized the Malibu was a sprint, at least a 1/4 mile shorter than the major handicaps later this year. Also that early pace was set by outright sprinters (Smiling Tiger and Alcindor), not by speedy route types. I might also even say that Twirling Candy should have been even further back in that race (he was only 3 lengths off Smiling Tiger) if indeed he could settle as you suggest. Lastly, though he was able to cope with being positioned off the early lead, the Malibu was certainly Twirling Candy's most hard fought victory, all out to get up just at the wire. Certainly that finish in no way suggests that he would want 2 more furlongs to deal with at anything close to that pace.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm not qualified to comment on the pace figures, however the 3/4 split was nearly 4 seconds faster than that of the San Antonio (a Grade 2 for 4yo and up) a day later at the same track and distance. Nevertheless, my comment was in response to yours saying that visually Twirling Candy settled nicely in the Strub. That simply wasn't the case. The pace figs are available and while you cant speak about them as expert you know enough to realize restrained on a 90 pace vs. 110 pace in a the Donn means the horse is capable of running much slower early then the horses infront of him. I dont know how many lengths 20 pace pts are but surely it is 4 or 5Now, your new theory that because TC wasn't on the lead (despite "pulling") in the slower paced Strub, he would be able to settle off a faster pace as in the Donn I suppose is possible. Again, I wouldn't necessarily describe it as "settled" but he was pretty much outrun early in the Malibu, which would lend some support to your idea.

However, it should be recognized the Malibu was a sprint, at least a 1/4 mile shorter than the major handicaps later this year. Also that early pace was set by outright sprinters (Smiling Tiger and Alcindor), not by speedy route types. I might also even say that Twirling Candy should have been even further back in that race (he was only 3 lengths off Smiling Tiger) if indeed he could settle as you suggest. Lastly, though he was able to cope with being positioned off the early lead, the Malibu was certainly Twirling Candy's most hard fought victory, all out to get up just at the wire. Certainly that finish in no way suggests that he would want 2 more furlongs to deal with at anything close to that pace.

I always thought a horse that overcomes setup in a sprint in a race that doesnt fit his style suggests quality. Smiling Tiger is a better sprinter then Twirling Candy and therefore Twirling Candy was at a disadvantage plus Twirling candy connection could not have been targeting the Malibu for Twirling Candys supereme effort. I think you wil agree that the Malibu wasnt the connections ultimate goal even if you think they are foolishly persuing routing. As for not wanting extra distance, I would suggest the longer they go the better Twirling Candy will be as he continues to develop. the colt has a long stride and didnt look exhausted in the Strub now if that was a result of a very slow early pace that he seemed to somehow agree to rate on we will see as I am sure connections will look to the Big Cap and other routes for his immediate future

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I always thought a horse that overcomes setup in a sprint in a race that doesnt fit his style suggests quality.

That's why one might say that Smiling Tiger is very good, but not Twirling Candy. The race is 7f and usually gets a full field with several confirmed sprinters, inherently favoring horses coming out of route races such as Twirling Candy. Smiling Tiger, who had a full campaign and was just coming back off the BC Sprint, had a decent horse lapped on to him throughout and he was still strong to the wire.

However, apparently it took a lot out of him, or the race wasn't very good, as he was brow-beaten by the comebacking old-timer Euroears a few weeks later in the 6f Palos Verdes. To be fair, he never challenged for the lead and seemed somewhat trapped sitting in 3rd early.

Smiling Tiger is a better sprinter then Twirling Candy and therefore Twirling Candy was at a disadvantage plus Twirling candy connection could not have been targeting the Malibu for Twirling Candys supereme effort.

Again it was 7f. It favored Twirling Candy immensely. Didn't Smiling Tiger, coming off 4 straight Grade 1s against older horses (2 wins) including a placing in the BC Sprint, go off at 6-1 odds?

I think you wil agree that the Malibu wasnt the connections ultimate goal even if you think they are foolishly persuing routing. As for not wanting extra distance, I would suggest the longer they go the better Twirling Candy will be as he continues to develop. the colt has a long stride and didnt look exhausted in the Strub now if that was a result of a very slow early pace that he seemed to somehow agree to rate on we will see as I am sure connections will look to the Big Cap and other routes for his immediate future

I don't think its silly they pursue the Big Cap, etc. I just think he'll get exposed at a route if he every runs against formidable company.

I hope there's a big upset in the Big Cap (fingers crossed, Spurrier) so that we can see Twirling Candy in his more appropriate milieu, eg the Carter and the Met Mile.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I'm not qualified to comment on the pace figures, however the 3/4 split was nearly 4 seconds faster than that of the San Antonio (a Grade 2 for 4yo and up) a day later at the same track and distance.

The half mile split was indentical to 8K claimers the same day and distance - but yeah, compared to the San Antonio ... the pace was blistering fast.

That was a nice duel in the Zazu race ... jesus.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The half mile split was indentical to 8K claimers the same day and distance - but yeah, compared to the San Antonio ... the pace was blistering fast.

That was a nice duel in the Zazu race ... jesus.

Pretty good race from May Day Rose, no?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The half mile split was indentical to 8K claimers the same day and distance - but yeah, compared to the San Antonio ... the pace was blistering fast.

I know, I was trying to avoid that race like the plague. Almost mentioned it because the 3/4 split was a little slower, but those were horrible horses.

Didn't want to hand Freddy any fodder on a tee...

That was a nice duel in the Zazu race ... jesus.

Yeah, that was hilarious. The May Day Rose filly should "turn" into a monster once she finds the paceless 5-horse stakes fields rampant throughout the country.

I'm penciling her in early for the Sunland Park, Iowa, and Indiana Oaks. Should win each of those by double digits.