Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo
The opened mouth Indian Firewater was running significantly slower then Morning line and stem cell Eddie and while we can view Twirling Candy's behavior differently you have to conceed that if twirling Candy was in the Donn he would have been able to run a lot faster early in the race and still not be nearly as restrained. I think the fact that he was able to rate into pace figs that a well respected pace fig maker has repped at 20 pts slower then the Donn speaks volumes to my argument that TC could have been 3 or 4 lengths off the hot Donn pace and been in terriffic striking postion. in essence debunking your theory he would have been cooked by ML and friends.
While TC was toiling on a 90ish pace in the Strub and able to restrain from cooking himself on the lead lets assume he was given a bit more run in the Donn and was allowed to run a 100 pace while ML and Eddie cooked on a 110ish pace.. Your only theory could now be running a 100 early vs. a restrained 90 would have twarted his last 3/8ths. I guess its possible but I actually see him winning the race(Donn) with considerable ease.
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I'm not qualified to comment on the pace figures, however the 3/4 split was nearly 4 seconds faster than that of the San Antonio (a Grade 2 for 4yo and up) a day later at the same track and distance. Nevertheless, my comment was in response to yours saying that
visually Twirling Candy settled nicely in the Strub. That simply wasn't the case.
Now, your new theory that because TC wasn't on the lead (despite "pulling") in the slower paced Strub, he would be able to settle off a faster pace as in the Donn I suppose is possible. Again, I wouldn't necessarily describe it as "settled" but he was pretty much outrun early in the Malibu, which would lend some support to your idea.
However, it should be recognized the Malibu was a sprint, at least a 1/4 mile shorter than the major handicaps later this year. Also that early pace was set by outright sprinters (Smiling Tiger and Alcindor), not by speedy route types. I might also even say that Twirling Candy should have been even
further back in that race (he was only 3 lengths off Smiling Tiger) if indeed he could settle as you suggest. Lastly, though he was able to cope with being positioned off the early lead, the Malibu was certainly Twirling Candy's most hard fought victory, all out to get up just at the wire. Certainly that finish in no way suggests that he would want 2 more furlongs to deal with at anything close to that pace.
02-08-2011, 09:58 AM
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