Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's all fine and dandy, but there are plenty of instances of figure makers fudging their numbers when something doesn't seem logical to them.

This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs.

Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess.

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

I believe the shipping to a warm weather location had more to do with it than simply running in the Arc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

I like to take things on a case by case basis.

As for me agreeing that Workforce will be an underlay....feels to me like he may be an overlay. Depending on the conditions, and the final field, he probably should be a pretty big favorite. On the other hand, I'll wait to see the pps. I also need to watch the Arc again and see just how tough the 4th finisher's trip really was, assuming he's coming.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

Another thing is that I probably won't be overly worried with trying to handicap the Turf, in the sense that I will just try to stay alive through the race in order to get live to a few horses not named Zenyatta in the Classic in the Pick-4. Therefore, I'm not going to let Workforce beat me, though I am sure I will use others.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Another thing is that I probably won't be overly worried with trying to handicap the Turf, in the sense that I will just try to stay alive through the race in order to get live to a few horses not named Zenyatta in the Classic in the Pick-4. Therefore, I'm not going to let Workforce beat me, though I am sure I will use others.

Ya I hear you there. I'll use him in the Pk4 depending on the prices I like in the other legs. I'll probably play against him in-race, though.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

So never toss the Arc winner just because? What is your opinion on Workforce?