Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?
 

No. Not off one American race. All Along won three times in NA in '83, all races coming after the Arc.

Horses with a chance with a Classic win....QR, Blame, and Lucky. Paddy and Haynesfield might get some votes but I can't see them winning. .

I don't know about you guys, but if all the faves in the BCC bomb, and Uncle Mo shatters a world record in the juvie, my vote would go to him!

What if Mr Andy only gives him a 102?

workforce could potentially win the top turf award if he wins big on bc day...but hoy? no way. obviously if blame or quality road wins the classic, they get HOY. they've both had very good campaigns all year, better than any other horse out there. also, lookin at lucky could get the award should he win.

Not that either scenario is likely to happen but if the logical contenders don't show up in the Classic wouldn't Blind Luck have to get the award before Uncle Mo?

Paul

I am very much against Euro shippers winning North American championships off of one race on the continent. Horse racing is NOT like baseball or pro football or basketball, which have tournaments to determine the best team. Horse racing is more like NASCAR or golf; some events are bigger and more prestigious than others but if one of them is won by a longshot, he doesn't automatically become the overall champion. It's what happens over the entire season that matters.

If we are saying a chance, Paddy and Haynesfield would likely win it, if they win the Classic.

well, since there are no rules, voters can do what they wish. and most voters probably don't see a turf race other than the bc turf, so there you go. it worked for high chaparral, and could certainly work for workforce.

I don't put a lot of credence to BSF's when used to evaluate the better horses. It seems pretty subjective, some of the time.

However, if Mo shatters a world record as a 2yo for a route distance, it's safe to say he'll get a pretty high number.

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

A slight overstatement. I hope.

Plus Blind Luck would still have to win her race over a really soft group. Ill likely bet Evening Jewel if she goes in that spot.

For what its worth, I think Workforce is a toss on primary tickets in the Turf. Intent is so important in the BC, and the race was a pure afterthought for these guys. He'll take a ton of money...I prefer a horse like Tazeez over Workforce.

Again, this is a purely academic exercise as neither has a realistic shot to win the title. That said, Uncle Mo, even with a huge win, would have made only three starts on the year. Blind Luck has gone everywhere, danced every dance (even those requiring multiple trips over the rockies) and has won lots of big races. In fact, with a win in the Distaff, Blind Luck will have more grade one wins than Uncle Mo has starts.

The fact that she has lost sonme races is actually a positive in my thinking. It just proves that she had the most ambitious schedule. She entered every big race. She faced every big name in her division. She always ran her race (even in defeat).

If more horses were campaigned like Blind Luck was this year, we would have a much better sport.

Paul

I'm just surprised anyone would take me seriously about Uncle Mo winning HOY.

I'll never stop being amazed that some people actually seem to believe that any speed figure maker ( for most of the ill-informed they use Beyer as the whipping boy for there ignorance ) is somehow responsible for how fast a horse runs.

Horses earn their figures. Good speed figure makers just accurately assess them. The confused just keep on misconstruing this.

Whoever the winner of the BC Classic is probably wins it, unless it really is an outsider. If it's a true bomb like Fly Down, they'll likely give it to Zenyatta to appease the public sentiment.

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

That's all fine and dandy, but there are plenty of instances of figure makers fudging their numbers when something doesn't seem logical to them.

This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs.

Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess.