Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

[Linny]

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

I also thought about the timing. It's interesting that when Trempolio was second in 1987, the BC was around November 21 or 7 weeks after the Arc.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

You and I might be the only 2.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You and I might be the only 2.

He's going to be a pretty big favorite.

[King Glorious]

When Arazi won the Juvenile in 1991, he went on to become one of the three finalists for HOY. He didn't win it but he was at least one of top three. It may not happen this year with Workforce but there is precedence for a dominating European to get very strong consideration and if all of the big guns lose the Classic and he dominates the Turf, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a look. What will hurt him is that the field for the Turf will be pathetically weak.

I still laugh at people who keep saying that horses that come over and run here once shouldn't be considered for awards, even though it's happened over and over and over again that they've not only been considered but have won. Hell, High Chaparral didn't even have to win the Turf outright in 2003 to win the championship that season and Singspiel won the award in 1996 and never won a race in the United States. The only criteria that has to be met is that a horse has to have run at least once in North America. If you feel after watching the Turf that Workforce is the best horse to have run here this year, and he's a qualified runner, you should vote for him. Period. Until they change the criteria, it's demeaning the value of the award to not give it to the best qualified horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

To me it's all Workforce and Behkabad, I'm not sure his Arc was his true race but he was also very highly regarded going in. One of them should be an overlay.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CSC

To me it's all Workforce and Behkabad, I'm not sure his Arc was his true race but he was also very highly regarded going in. One of them should be an overlay.

Im not sure any Euro will be an overlay this year, what American horse can actually take any real $?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not sure any Euro will be an overlay this year, what American horse can actually take any real $?

Al Khali and Debussy could take money, have to think 1 of the 2 arc horses will be the underlay, leaving one as a decent overlay.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CSC

Al Khali and Debussy could take money, have to think 1 of the 2 arc horses will be the underlay, leaving one as a decent overlay.

I forgout about Al Khali... His last trip should lead to him being bet.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.
.

The Arc is run at a right-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of nearly 2 miles. (The Arc itself is a one-turn race, with a stretch nearly 4f long.) The BC Turf is run on a left-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of a mile or less (less at CD). Is it any wonder that a horse that has excelled under the conditions of the Arc might not find the BC Turf's conditions to be his cup of tea?

Look for Euros with good races on left-hand courses and on those with short stretches, like Chester.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The Arc is run at a right-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of nearly 2 miles. (The Arc itself is a one-turn race, with a stretch nearly 4f long.) The BC Turf is run on a left-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of a mile or less (less at CD). Is it any wonder that a horse that has excelled under the conditions of the Arc might not find the BC Turf's conditions to be his cup of tea?

Look for Euros with good races on left-hand courses and on those with short stretches, like Chester.

Yeah, that explains the total failure of horses like Trempolino, or horses that lost the Arc and fared well in the BCT.