Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Besides obviously Zenyatta which horse or horses can win it with a BC win? Does Workforce have an outside chance with a Turf win if an outsider wins the Classic?

For what its worth, I think Workforce is a toss on primary tickets in the Turf. Intent is so important in the BC, and the race was a pure afterthought for these guys. He'll take a ton of money...I prefer a horse like Tazeez over Workforce.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

For what its worth, I think Workforce is a toss on primary tickets in the Turf. Intent is so important in the BC, and the race was a pure afterthought for these guys. He'll take a ton of money...I prefer a horse like Tazeez over Workforce.

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

[Linny]

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

I also thought about the timing. It's interesting that when Trempolio was second in 1987, the BC was around November 21 or 7 weeks after the Arc.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

You and I might be the only 2.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You and I might be the only 2.

He's going to be a pretty big favorite.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

To me it's all Workforce and Behkabad, I'm not sure his Arc was his true race but he was also very highly regarded going in. One of them should be an overlay.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CSC

To me it's all Workforce and Behkabad, I'm not sure his Arc was his true race but he was also very highly regarded going in. One of them should be an overlay.

Im not sure any Euro will be an overlay this year, what American horse can actually take any real $?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.
.

The Arc is run at a right-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of nearly 2 miles. (The Arc itself is a one-turn race, with a stretch nearly 4f long.) The BC Turf is run on a left-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of a mile or less (less at CD). Is it any wonder that a horse that has excelled under the conditions of the Arc might not find the BC Turf's conditions to be his cup of tea?

Look for Euros with good races on left-hand courses and on those with short stretches, like Chester.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The Arc is run at a right-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of nearly 2 miles. (The Arc itself is a one-turn race, with a stretch nearly 4f long.) The BC Turf is run on a left-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of a mile or less (less at CD). Is it any wonder that a horse that has excelled under the conditions of the Arc might not find the BC Turf's conditions to be his cup of tea?

Look for Euros with good races on left-hand courses and on those with short stretches, like Chester.

Yeah, that explains the total failure of horses like Trempolino, or horses that lost the Arc and fared well in the BCT.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by CSC

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

To be, it's all a matter of intent. If the BC is an afterthought in a campaign, a "maybe we will, maybe we won't, we'll see how he's doing......" - I'm just not as interested. Horses who have been pointed to these races and prepped with these races in mind earn much more of my attention, and money, on BC day. Red Desire is one of them this year.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

To be, it's all a matter of intent. If the BC is an afterthought in a campaign, a "maybe we will, maybe we won't, we'll see how he's doing......" - I'm just not as interested. Horses who have been pointed to these races and prepped with these races in mind earn much more of my attention, and money, on BC day. Red Desire is one of them this year.

She was an obvious play against last time on that course, but I agree that she's interesting now w/ that slightly more darkened form.

Her and Plumania seem like the ones to take down Midday.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

She was an obvious play against last time on that course, but I agree that she's interesting now w/ that slightly more darkened form.

Her and Plumania seem like the ones to take down Midday.

Anywhere to get pp's yet? I have never heard of Plumania.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Anywhere to get pp's yet? I have never heard of Plumania.

Wednesday. . . or go to Racing Post and use the "search" function for some more info on her (their website is excellent).

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wednesday. . . or go to Racing Post and use the "search" function for some more info on her (their website is excellent).

Thanks.