Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Have you seen them in the mornings?

No...........but based on the workouts listed, it seems like they are all working well. Darley has a Bernardini Briswatch on their site, so I can check the PPs of his upcoming runners (and other horses).

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Betsy

No...........but based on the workouts listed, it seems like they are all working well. Darley has a Bernardini Briswatch on their site, so I can check the PPs of his upcoming runners (and other horses).

If you are paying attention to anything other than the spacing of the works, it's really a waste of time imo.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by GPK

If you are paying attention to anything other than the spacing of the works, it's really a waste of time imo.

the only time I think its helpful to look at works is for Maidens & first time starters. just my opinion but I like to see a first time starter throw a bullet work before the race..

all other races works are meaningless for me... except for the spacing of them.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

the only time I think its helpful to look at works is for Maidens & first time starters. just my opinion but I like to see a first time starter throw a bullet work before the race..

all other races works are meaningless for me... except for the spacing of them.

I demand 5 furlong works and hopefully a bullet within the last month

[GPK]

Listening to a trainer and getting the word from the backside is generally the best way to bet firsters.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by GPK

Listening to a trainer and getting the word from the backside is generally the best way to bet firsters.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by GPK

Listening to a trainer and getting the word from the backside is generally the best way to bet firsters.

listening to Payson Dave is better than listening to the trainers IMO.

sometimes you can get a good tip on firsters though.

But I agree with jms. If I'm going to put $ on a firster, I want to see a bullet in the final work or two, and I prefer to see it at 5 furlongs, not 3 furlongs.

But I'm not much of a handicapper at all, I could be way off base.

But Payson Dave and that workout (and sometimes breeding and trainer 1st time stats) are all I'll bet firsters off of.

Usually, maiden races like this are just best to enjoy without a wager though... IMO

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Three of the first four horses in the 3rd today are Dance With Ravens debuters going 5.5f. Wow.

I wouldn't be shocked if all three of them are prepping for turf routes.

The goofy ass one starting from the rail RNA'd for 12K a few months ago. Long stride and pretty green.

The dam of the David Donk one won her debut on the turf and won a stake goign 9f on turf.

The dam of the Aquilino won her debut going 4.5 furlongs on the dirt and was actually a solid 4th to Flanders in the Spinaway. Later ended up being a Graded Stakes winning turf router.

If any of those horses can run at all .. it will most likely be going long on turf.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

listening to Payson Dave is better than listening to the trainers IMO.

sometimes you can get a good tip on firsters though.

But I agree with jms. If I'm going to put $ on a firster, I want to see a bullet in the final work or two, and I prefer to see it at 5 furlongs, not 3 furlongs.

But I'm not much of a handicapper at all, I could be way off base.

But Payson Dave and that workout (and sometimes breeding and trainer 1st time stats) are all I'll bet firsters off of.

Usually, maiden races like this are just best to enjoy without a wager though... IMO

oh boy...maybe I should remove my tounge from my cheek now

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by GPK

If you are paying attention to anything other than the spacing of the works, it's really a waste of time imo.

So what are supposed to be well spaced works? I see the closer look guys say works are "well spaced" but I've neglected to take note.

I give more weight to the most recent workout.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

So what are supposed to be well spaced works? I see the closer look guys say works are "well spaced" but I've neglected to take note.

I give more weight to the most recent workout.

I look for works spaced about 7 days apart. Obviously there are different factors in play that may explain a missed work.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by GPK

I look for works spaced about 7 days apart. Obviously there are different factors in play that may explain a missed work.

kev you gotta bear in mind that they can play games too with the spacing of works , just like they do with the times

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by gales0678

kev you gotta bear in mind that they can play games too with the spacing of works , just like they do with the times

Screw all that crap, Gales, WE WANT EDDIE K UPDATES!!!!!

nt

[ateamstupid]

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

That makes sense, so then how do you bet a race like this? I figure Stay Thirsty will be the favorite, but how do you determine which firsters to play? Pedigree?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

Especially when there is no way, on paper, to tell which works were fiction and which were non-fiction.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

amen brother and so is betting heavily on those two year old races. throw darts...pick your favorite number or color.....i hope everyone had valiant passion at 30-1.....she won like she was 1-9....i guess she was working badly .....lol.....lol. bet those ridiculous races at your own risk! a little , yeah, if you get lucky...so be it. if you are betting them like you seriously know what might happen....you are a moron.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

Exactly.
I think workouts only matter if an actual pattern can be ascertained (for either the trainer or the horse). If a trainer typically works his horses fast (Baffert) and you see a debut animal that isn't working fast....okay, maybe that tells you something. If a trainer doesn't have a pattern, however, or if you just don't know what that trainer's pattern is, then I'm not sure workouts tell you anything. For horses with experience I might look at a pattern in works too. If a horse consistently has a bullet work right before their best races, then okay, that might tell you something too.

The other thing that is just like this is when people talk about how a horse acts in the paddock or the post parade. I guess some people really do get info from that, but 99% of people that talk about that stuff are full of crap. Like workouts, I only really think it matters if you can determine a pattern. They'll invariably be some dude saying, "Oh! the favorite looks worked up and agitated in the paddock. I'm not betting him!" Of course, the dude has no idea if the horse looked "worked up and agitated" before any of the horse's previous starts, and if there is any connection between times he looked worked up and times he ran poorly.

[Betsy]

I'm surprised Pletcher is running Stay Thirsty at 6 furlongs, but I suppose there weren't any 7 furlong races scheduled for awhile.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by GPK

If you are paying attention to anything other than the spacing of the works, it's really a waste of time imo.

What do you look for in a work? I actually figured that Stay Thirsty was going to run soon based on his last work, 51 and change. Prior to that he'd worked in 48 and change, breezing, so I figured Pletcher was just sending him out for some excercise. Of course he already has experience.............