Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

looks like a jogburger for the 11.. Whats so good about it? Other then the Ralph Nicks Officer colt who figures to be a likely FTS that could win here?

The Pletcher has zero shot
The Ice Aptitude zero shot
Maybe the Roman Ruler for McPeek can run a little
Zito and a Rock hard Ten going 6 zero shot
Ass/Jess could be OK but will be way overbet
Call The Ball has two great works especially for a Vindy but who would be a Vindy going 6 FTS?
The Birdstone could be ok but never first out and the The Berny doesnt want to sprint

7/5 on the 11 will be stealing

Heisman is a full brother to Any Given Saturday. Why would he have no chance?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Heisman is a full brother to Any Given Saturday. Why would he have no chance?

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

While I agree with you in principle, the 5th race last Thursday was almost the exact same scenario and Cohen won on the "B" horse wire to wire.

Of course, the Pletcher trainee JV rode that day looked nowhere near as good as Stay Thirsty. I think he's going to win rather easily.

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

No, absolutely not. JV already rode the other horse and he ran 2nd. I would bet money that he was not offered the mount on the first-timer in this race. That would be the kind of thing that would not go over well for a trainer when he is trying to keep two separate owners happy. It would be one thing if both horses had run and JV had ridden both of them. Then he would have to choose between the two. But in a case where he's already ridden the one horse and the horse ran well, he's not going to be offered the mount on the other horse.

By the way, last week there was a MSW at Saratoga and Pletcher had two first-timers. JV was on one and Cohen was on the other. Simon Bray was handicapping the race on TVG and commented that he was only using the JV horse because Pletcher would definitely put JV on the better of the two horses. I was thinking that I would not necessarily agree considering that the Pletcher/Cohen combo has a much higher win percenatge than the Pletcher/JV combo. The Pletcher/Cohen combo has won at a 37% clip from 113 starts. The Pletcher/JV combo has won at a 24% clip from 523 starts.

Anyway, Simon Bray was totally wrong. The horse with Cohen won the race easily. And I think that horse broke from the rail too.

[Betsy]

I LOVE Stay Thirsty, but he's got an awful post.....He ran very well in his debut and he should improve.. Also, he's trained by Pletcher...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I LOVE Stay Thirsty, but he's got an awful post.....He ran very well in his debut and he should improve..

What's so awful about that post?

NT

[randallscott35]

You really can't judge the best maiden race until they are all run. We'll see.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What's so awful about that post?

NT

I just assumed the far outside post is the worst; I wouldn't mind being wrong. It's better than being on the inside.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I just assumed the far outside post is the worst; I wouldn't mind being wrong. It's better than being on the inside.

No in sprints really if the run into the turn is long enough and certainly not with babies who don't like being close to the rail.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

No, absolutely not. JV already rode the other horse and he ran 2nd. I would bet money that he was not offered the mount on the first-timer in this race. That would be the kind of thing that would not go over well for a trainer when he is trying to keep two separate owners happy. It would be one thing if both horses had run and JV had ridden both of them. Then he would have to choose between the two. But in a case where he's already ridden the one horse and the horse ran well, he's not going to be offered the mount on the other horse.

By the way, last week there was a MSW at Saratoga and Pletcher had two first-timers. JV was on one and Cohen was on the other. Simon Bray was handicapping the race on TVG and commented that he was only using the JV horse because Pletcher would definitely put JV on the better of the two horses. I was thinking that I would not necessarily agree considering that the Pletcher/Cohen combo has a much higher win percenatge than the Pletcher/JV combo. The Pletcher/Cohen combo has won at a 37% clip from 113 starts. The Pletcher/JV combo has won at a 24% clip from 523 starts.


Anyway, Simon Bray was totally wrong. The horse with Cohen won the race easily. And I think that horse broke from the rail too.

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

I watched both of those horses (the Asmussen and the 11) work at the sale and I liked the Asmussen better. If I can get a decent price on the Asmussen, I would certainly consider betting the horse.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

I doubt it was an accident that the horse with Cohen won. Pletcher has a lot of confidence in Cohen, as he should. If a jock was winning for you at a 37% clip from 113 mounts with a ROI of $2.51, I don't think you'd be afraid to put him on a good horse.

If a trainer has 2 first-time starters in a maiden race and one is being ridden by his go-to jock and the other is being a ridden by a no-name jock that is 0 for 20 for that trainer, I would usually assume that the horse with the go-to jock is the live one. But if both jockeys have a really high win percentage for the trainer, I would not put nearly as much weight on which horse the #1 guy is on.

And if one of the horses has already run once and has run pretty well (as is the case for the upcoming race on Saturday), then I wouldn't put any weight on which jockey is riding which horse, because the same jock will almost for sure be riding that horse again even if the other horse is better.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I doubt it was an accident that the horse with Cohen won. Pletcher has a lot of confidence in Cohen, as he should. If a jock was winning for you at a 37% clip from 113 mounts with a ROI of $2.51, I don't think you'd be afraid to put him on a good horse.

If a trainer has 2 first-time starters in a maiden race and one is being ridden by his go-to jock and the other is being a ridden by a no-name jock that is 0 for 20 for that trainer, I would usually assume that the horse with the go-to jock is the live one. But if both jockeys have a really high win percentage for the trainer, I would not put nearly as much weight on which horse the #1 guy is on.

And if one of the horses has already run once and has run pretty well (as is the case for the upcoming race on Saturday), then I wouldn't put any weight on which jockey is riding which horse, because the same jock will almost for sure be riding that horse again even if the other horse is better.

Can you find a jockey that has ridden for Pletcher that doesn't have a high percentage when riding for him? Those Cohen-Pletcher stats were not accumulated during a time when the racing is nearly as competitive as it is at Saratoga.

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Can you find a jockey that has ridden for Pletcher that doesn't have a high percentage when riding for him? Those Cohen-Pletcher stats were not accumulated during a time when the racing is nearly as competitive as it is at Saratoga.

NT

The answer is clearly "yes". Do the math. Pletcher's winning percentage this year is 27%. What was it last year? I believe it was about 24%. For the two years combined, his win percentage is about 25% or so. He is winning with Cohen at a 37% clip for that time period. If he's winning with Cohen at a 37% clip (from 113 mounts) for that time period but his overall win percentage is 25%, that means that there have to be other jockeys out there that are only winning at about a 13% clip for Pletcher. I don't know specifically which jocks. I'm sure you could look it up.

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

I was able to find one that is significantly lower. The Pletcher/Dominguez combo wins at a 20% clip.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

Cohen won with a 2yo filly for TAP last week. JV had the mount on the other Pletcher. Remember a couple of years ago when GoGo won more for Todd than JV?