Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by pba1817

His sprint influenced breeding got him the distance better than 15 others(most of whom were bred to go this far).

Willie has cost this horse multiple races with awful rides and I was amazed McPeek sought his services once again.. When was the last time a horse took the lead at that point in this race and won...?

2 years ago.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

2 years ago.

... and 3 years ago, 4 years ago, 6 years ago...

sthop making thense!

[Scav]

First off, Noble's Promise ran 100 times better then I thought he would, for him to finish 5th is amazing to me.

Second off, I can't believe fatman just said Icebox benefited from being stopped in the race. He wonders why he gets crucified?

[slotdirt]

Scav, go down to your local velodrome or park with your bike. Get in a draft with a bunch of guys going 25 miles per hour. I know it's only bike racing, but if you have to check when you're in a pack, it's easy to re-rally and keep up with the riders you're with because of the aerodynamics of the draft. Ice Box just used the Shake and Bake.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Scav, go down to your local velodrome or park with your bike. Get in a draft with a bunch of guys going 25 miles per hour. I know it's only bike racing, but if you have to check when you're in a pack, it's easy to re-rally and keep up with the riders you're with because of the aerodynamics of the draft. Ice Box just used the Shake and Bake.

I didn't even know what a velodrome was until I looked it up the other day.

I gotta be honest too, I like reading The Fat Man's posts, there are tidbits that really are worth using towards your handicapping.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

2 years ago.

Originally Posted by philcski

... and 3 years ago, 4 years ago, 6 years ago...

Watch the replays of the years you are quoting guys... the horses who win this race take the lead at the very end of the turn or after the final turn, not early or midway through the turn.

2 years ago... Big Brown didn't take the lead until the end of the turn.

3 years ago... Street Sense didn't pass Hard Spun till mid stretch.

4 years ago... Barbaro didn't take the lead until nearing the end of the turn.

6 years ago... Smarty Jones didn't take the lead until they left the final turn.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Watch the replays of the years you are quoting guys... the horses who win this race take the lead at the very end of the turn or after the final turn, not on the turn.

When I have time I'll check it out. I looked back at the pps of the derby winners since '92 and only three had taken the lead coming from behind at the quarter pole. Big Brown,Barbaro and Real Quiet. Quite a few had closed ground to within less than a length during the same point in the race.

It wouldn't surprise me that NP was in front at some point in between calls or earlier than Big Brown or Barbaro. (Although my recollection of Barbaro's race was that he had the lead midway on the turn.)

In any event if you watch BB's and Barbaro's derbys I would guess that they were moving away from the others behind them when they made those moves. This was not the case with Nobles Promise. He was separated from SS by the same distance throughout the run down the backstretch and around the turn. If NP made a premature move then so did Super Saver.

What really was happening was the two leaders were backing up to the field. On the pan shot from NBC you can only see three horses when NP inherited the lead. That gave the appearance that he was moving swiftly and perhaps prematurely but only from the skycam can you see that SS was moving just as quickly as NP.

If there was any move that hurt NP's chances it was the one going into the clubhouse turn.

[pba1817]

The move that hurt Nobles Promise's best chances of a victory was the selection of which pilot to use...